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Last Updated: December 31, 2025

KALYDECO Drug Patent Profile


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When do Kalydeco patents expire, and what generic alternatives are available?

Kalydeco is a drug marketed by Vertex Pharms Inc and Vertex Pharms and is included in two NDAs. There are fourteen patents protecting this drug and two Paragraph IV challenges.

This drug has two hundred and fifty-seven patent family members in thirty-six countries.

The generic ingredient in KALYDECO is ivacaftor. There are three drug master file entries for this compound. One supplier is listed for this compound. Additional details are available on the ivacaftor profile page.

DrugPatentWatch® Generic Entry Outlook for Kalydeco

Kalydeco was eligible for patent challenges on January 31, 2016.

By analyzing the patents and regulatory protections it appears that the earliest date for generic entry will be February 13, 2030. This may change due to patent challenges or generic licensing.

There have been five patent litigation cases involving the patents protecting this drug, indicating strong interest in generic launch. Recent data indicate that 63% of patent challenges are decided in favor of the generic patent challenger and that 54% of successful patent challengers promptly launch generic drugs.

There are two tentative approvals for the generic drug (ivacaftor), which indicates the potential for near-term generic launch.

Indicators of Generic Entry

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Drug patent expirations by year for KALYDECO
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DrugPatentWatch® Estimated Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) Date for KALYDECO
Generic Entry Dates for KALYDECO*:
Constraining patent/regulatory exclusivity:
NDA:
Dosage:
GRANULE;ORAL
Generic Entry Dates for KALYDECO*:
Constraining patent/regulatory exclusivity:
NDA:
Dosage:
TABLET;ORAL

*The generic entry opportunity date is the latter of the last compound-claiming patent and the last regulatory exclusivity protection. Many factors can influence early or later generic entry. This date is provided as a rough estimate of generic entry potential and should not be used as an independent source.

Recent Clinical Trials for KALYDECO

Identify potential brand extensions & 505(b)(2) entrants

SponsorPhase
National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK)Phase 2
University of Kansas Medical CenterEarly Phase 1
University of North CarolinaEarly Phase 1

See all KALYDECO clinical trials

Paragraph IV (Patent) Challenges for KALYDECO
Tradename Dosage Ingredient Strength NDA ANDAs Submitted Submissiondate
KALYDECO Oral Granules ivacaftor 25 mg, 50 mg and 75 mg 207925 1 2022-04-13
KALYDECO Tablets ivacaftor 150 mg 203188 1 2020-06-10

US Patents and Regulatory Information for KALYDECO

KALYDECO is protected by seventeen US patents and eleven FDA Regulatory Exclusivities.

Based on analysis by DrugPatentWatch, the earliest date for a generic version of KALYDECO is ⤷  Get Started Free.

This potential generic entry date is based on patent 10,646,481.

Generics may enter earlier, or later, based on new patent filings, patent extensions, patent invalidation, early generic licensing, generic entry preferences, and other factors.

Applicant Tradename Generic Name Dosage NDA Approval Date TE Type RLD RS Patent No. Patent Expiration Product Substance Delist Req. Exclusivity Expiration
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-001 Mar 17, 2015 RX Yes No 10,272,046*PED ⤷  Get Started Free Y ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-002 Mar 17, 2015 RX Yes Yes ⤷  Get Started Free ⤷  Get Started Free ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-003 Apr 29, 2019 RX Yes No 8,629,162 ⤷  Get Started Free ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-005 May 3, 2023 RX Yes No 8,354,427*PED ⤷  Get Started Free Y ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms KALYDECO ivacaftor TABLET;ORAL 203188-001 Jan 31, 2012 RX Yes Yes 10,646,481*PED ⤷  Get Started Free Y ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-003 Apr 29, 2019 RX Yes No 9,670,163*PED ⤷  Get Started Free Y ⤷  Get Started Free
>Applicant >Tradename >Generic Name >Dosage >NDA >Approval Date >TE >Type >RLD >RS >Patent No. >Patent Expiration >Product >Substance >Delist Req. >Exclusivity Expiration

Expired US Patents for KALYDECO

Applicant Tradename Generic Name Dosage NDA Approval Date Patent No. Patent Expiration
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-004 May 3, 2023 8,629,162 ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-001 Mar 17, 2015 8,629,162 ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-003 Apr 29, 2019 8,629,162 ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-005 May 3, 2023 8,629,162 ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms Inc KALYDECO ivacaftor GRANULE;ORAL 207925-002 Mar 17, 2015 8,629,162 ⤷  Get Started Free
Vertex Pharms KALYDECO ivacaftor TABLET;ORAL 203188-001 Jan 31, 2012 8,629,162 ⤷  Get Started Free
>Applicant >Tradename >Generic Name >Dosage >NDA >Approval Date >Patent No. >Patent Expiration

EU/EMA Drug Approvals for KALYDECO

Company Drugname Inn Product Number / Indication Status Generic Biosimilar Orphan Marketing Authorisation Marketing Refusal
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Ireland) Limited Kalydeco ivacaftor EMEA/H/C/002494Kalydeco tablets are indicated:As monotherapy for the treatment of adults, adolescents, and children aged 6 years and older and weighing 25 kg or more with cystic fibrosis (CF) who have an R117H CFTR mutation or one of the following gating (class III) mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene: G551D, G1244E, G1349D, G178R, G551S, S1251N, S1255P, S549N or S549R (see sections 4.4 and 5.1).In a combination regimen with tezacaftor/ivacaftor tablets for the treatment of adults, adolescents, and children aged 6 years and older with cystic fibrosis (CF) who are homozygous for the F508del mutation or who are heterozygous for the F508del mutation and have one of the following mutations in the CFTR gene: P67L, R117C, L206W, R352Q, A455E, D579G, 711+3A→G, S945L, S977F, R1070W, D1152H, 2789+5G→A, 3272 26A→G, and 3849+10kbC→T.In a combination regimen with ivacaftor/tezacaftor/elexacaftor tablets for the treatment of adults, adolescents, and children aged 6 years and older with cystic fibrosis (CF) who have at least one F508del mutation in the CFTR gene (see section 5.1).Kalydeco granules are indicated for the treatment of infants aged at least 4 months, toddlers and children weighing 5 kg to less than 25 kg with cystic fibrosis (CF) who have an R117H CFTR mutation or one of the following gating (class III) mutations in the CFTR gene: G551D, G1244E, G1349D, G178R, G551S, S1251N, S1255P, S549N or S549R (see sections 4.4 and 5.1). Authorised no no no 2012-07-23
>Company >Drugname >Inn >Product Number / Indication >Status >Generic >Biosimilar >Orphan >Marketing Authorisation >Marketing Refusal

International Patents for KALYDECO

When does loss-of-exclusivity occur for KALYDECO?

Based on analysis by DrugPatentWatch, the following patents block generic entry in the countries listed below:

Australia

Patent: 09282419
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 10282986
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 13226076
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 16216569
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Brazil

Patent: 0916877
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 2012008082
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 2014021090
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Canada

Patent: 33908
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 69695
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 65519
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Chile

Patent: 12000348
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

China

Patent: 2231990
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 2497859
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 4470518
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 9966264
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Croatia

Patent: 0180328
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 0190660
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 0210208
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Cyprus

Patent: 19945
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 21572
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 23901
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Denmark

Patent: 28618
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 64337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 45625
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Eurasian Patent Organization

Patent: 1706
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 1170330
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

European Patent Office

Patent: 28618
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 64337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 19670
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 45625
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 42037
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Finland

Patent: 64337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Hong Kong

Patent: 61140
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 03840
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 05690
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 56805
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Hungary

Patent: 35931
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 42437
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 53357
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Israel

Patent: 1203
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 4307
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 2421
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 5430
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 5854
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 1180
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Japan

Patent: 75768
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 34041
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 11530598
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 13501787
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 14111656
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 15511583
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 17190356
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Lithuania

Patent: 28618
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 64337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 45625
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Mexico

Patent: 6161
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 3230
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 9751
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 11001782
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 12001939
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 14010253
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Montenegro

Patent: 019
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 356
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

New Zealand

Patent: 1535
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 7823
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 9199
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Norway

Patent: 28618
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Poland

Patent: 28618
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 64337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 45625
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Portugal

Patent: 28618
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 64337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 45625
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Russian Federation

Patent: 92779
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 12109390
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 14139006
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 19116577
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

San Marino

Patent: 01800074
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 01900210
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 02100077
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Serbia

Patent: 894
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 604
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 408
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Singapore

Patent: 8337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Slovenia

Patent: 28618
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 64337
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 45625
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

South Africa

Patent: 1101097
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 1200722
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 1406233
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

South Korea

Patent: 110042356
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 120061875
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 170072950
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 190143497
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 220057663
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 240066199
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Spain

Patent: 60143
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 18273
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Patent: 57152
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Ukraine

Patent: 2261
Estimated Expiration: ⤷  Get Started Free

Generics may enter earlier, or later, based on new patent filings, patent extensions, patent invalidation, early generic licensing, generic entry preferences, and other factors.

See the table below for additional patents covering KALYDECO around the world.

Country Patent Number Title Estimated Expiration
Japan 5409010 ⤷  Get Started Free
European Patent Office 2502902 Modulateurs de transporteurs de cassette de liaison a l ́ATP (Modulators of ATP-binding cassette transporters) ⤷  Get Started Free
European Patent Office 2502912 Modulateurs de transporteurs de cassette de liaison à l ́ATP (Modulators of ATP-binding cassette transporters) ⤷  Get Started Free
Mexico 2014010253 COMPOSICION FARMACEUTICA Y ADMINISTRACIONES DE LA MISMA. (PHARMACEUTICAL COMPOSITION AND ADMINISTRATION THEREOF.) ⤷  Get Started Free
Japan 2009522278 ⤷  Get Started Free
European Patent Office 3705477 ⤷  Get Started Free
>Country >Patent Number >Title >Estimated Expiration

Supplementary Protection Certificates for KALYDECO

Patent Number Supplementary Protection Certificate SPC Country SPC Expiration SPC Description
2826776 2021C/517 Belgium ⤷  Get Started Free PRODUCT NAME: SYMKEVI - TEZACAFTOR/IVACAFTOR; EEN COMBINATIE VAN (A) (R)-1-(2,2-DIFLUOROBENZO(D)(1,3)DIOXOL-5-YL)-N-(1-(2,3-DIHYDROXYPROPYL)-6-FLUORO-2-(1-HYDROXY-2-METHYLPROPAN-2-YL)-1H-INDOL-5-YL)CYCLOPROPANECARBOXAMIDE OF EEN VANUIT FARMACEUTISCH OOGPUNT GESCHIKT ZOUT DAARVAN EN (B) N-(5-HYDROXY-2,4-DITERT-BUTYL-PHENYL)-4-OXO-1H-QUINOLINE-3-CARBOXAMIDE OF EEN VANUIT FARMACEUTISCH OOGPUNT GESCHIKT ZOUT DAARVAN; AUTHORISATION NUMBER AND DATE: EU/1/18/1306 20181106
1773816 617 Finland ⤷  Get Started Free
3170818 132020000000103 Italy ⤷  Get Started Free PRODUCT NAME: UNA COMBINAZIONE DI (A) LUMACAFTOR E (B) IVACAFTOR O UN SUO SALE FARMACEUTICAMENTE ACCETTABILE(ORKAMBI); AUTHORISATION NUMBER(S) AND DATE(S): EU/1/15/1059, 20151124
3170818 2020C/005 Belgium ⤷  Get Started Free PRODUCT NAME: ORKAMBI (LUMACAFTOR + IVACAFTOR); AUTHORISATION NUMBER AND DATE: EU/1/15/1059 20151124
2826776 SPC/GB21/025 United Kingdom ⤷  Get Started Free PRODUCT NAME: A COMBINATION OF (A) TEZACAFTOR AND (B) IVACAFTOR; REGISTERED: UK EU/1/18/1306 (NI) 20181106; UK FURTHER MAS ON IPSUM 20181106
1773816 300748 Netherlands ⤷  Get Started Free PRODUCT NAME: IVACAFTOR, OF EEN FARMACEUTISCH AANVAARDBAAR ZOUT DAARVAN; REGISTRATION NO/DATE: EU/1/12/782/001-002 20120725
>Patent Number >Supplementary Protection Certificate >SPC Country >SPC Expiration >SPC Description

Market Dynamics and Financial Trajectory of Kalydeco (Ivacaftor)

Last updated: December 30, 2025

Executive Summary

Kalydeco (ivacaftor), developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals, is a groundbreaking cystic fibrosis (CF) therapy that first gained regulatory approval in 2012. Its innovative mechanism—targeting specific genetic mutations—positioned it uniquely in personalized medicine. The drug’s market dynamics are shaped by its targeted patient population, approval scope, competitive landscape, pricing strategies, and evolving regulatory environment. Financially, Kalydeco has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with significant contributions from expanding indications and global market penetration. This analysis explores key factors influencing its market and revenue trajectory, compares it with competitors, and assesses future growth prospects.


1. Introduction to Kalydeco: Indication and Mechanism

What is Kalydeco?

  • Active Ingredient: Ivacaftor
  • Approval Date: 2012 (FDA), subsequent approvals internationally
  • Primary Indication: Cystic fibrosis caused by specific G551D mutation and other gating mutations
  • Mechanism of Action: Potentiates CFTR (Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator) protein function by increasing channel open probability

Market Relevance

Kalydeco exemplifies targeted therapy, tailored to genetic subtypes of CF, enabling more effective and personalized treatments.


2. Market Dynamics

2.1. Patient Population and Market Size

  • Global CF Population: Approximately 100,000 diagnosed patients worldwide
  • US Population: ~30,000 CF patients, with ~4-5% harboring G551D and similar mutations amenable to Kalydeco (per FDA labels)
  • Mutation-specific Market: Initially limited but expanding as approvals extend

2.2. Regulatory Milestones and Indications Expansion

Year Regulatory Body Indications Approved Key Highlights
2012 FDA G551D mutation First targeted CF therapy
2014 EMA Same as FDA Broadened access
2018 FDA Additional gating mutations Expanded eligible mutations
2020+ Regulatory agencies Multiple mutations and pediatric populations Continued expansion, including in European and Asian markets

2.3. Pricing and Reimbursement Environment

  • Pricing: List prices approximate $294,000 annually in the US (per 2022), reflecting high R&D costs and targeted efficacy
  • Reimbursement: Insurance coverage increasingly negotiated through pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), with regional variation
  • Access Challenges: High drug cost influences market penetration rates

2.4. Competition and Market Share

Competitor Drug Name Indication Scope Market Share (Estimated, 2023)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Kalydeco (Ivacaftor) Gating mutations; expanded over time ~60%
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Trikafta (Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor) Broader CF population including F508del ~30%
Others Orkambi, Symdeko F508del mutation subgroup Remaining market share

Note: Trikafta, approved in 2019, significantly impacted Kalydeco's market share via expanding indications.

2.5. Pricing Strategies and Market Penetration

  • Tiered Pricing: Differentiated by region, based on economic status
  • Patient Assistance Programs: To improve access and mitigate cost barriers
  • Market Penetration: Accelerated through public health initiatives and expanded indications

3. Financial Trajectory of Kalydeco

3.1. Revenue Growth and Trends

Year Approximate Revenue (USD) Change from Previous Year Comments
2012 $145 million Initial launch, limited patient pool
2014 $370 million +155% Broadened indications, increased adoption
2016 $593 million +60% Expansion into additional jurisdictions
2018 $927 million +56% Introduction of Trikafta influenced sales trends
2020 $1.2 billion +29% As indications further expanded
2022 ~$1.5 billion +25% Peak sales period; growth rate moderates

Source: Vertex’s Annual Reports [1], [2], [3]

3.2. Cost and Investment Analysis

  • R&D Expenses: Significant investment into mutation-specific research
  • Manufacturing Cost: High, attributable to complex bioprocessing
  • Regulatory Cost: Substantial, given the genetic testing components of indications
  • Profit Margin: Estimated gross margin around 85%; net margins affected by R&D and commercialization expenses

3.3. Profitability and Future Revenue Drivers

  • Key Drivers:
    • Expansion into pediatric and broader mutation populations
    • Increasing global approvals
    • Entry into emerging markets (Asia, Latin America)
  • Potential Risks:
    • Regulatory delays or rejections
    • Market saturation
    • Competition from new gene-editing therapies

4. Market Drivers and Challenges

4.1. Growing Personalized Medicine Paradigm

  • Increasing genetic testing adoption feeds demand
  • Expanding indications align with FDA's trend towards broad subset approvals

4.2. Regulatory and Reimbursement Landscape

  • Shifts toward value-based pricing
  • Escalating healthcare cost containment pressures

4.3. Competitive Dynamics

  • Emergence of combination therapies like Trikafta dilutes Kalydeco’s market share
  • Patent expirations approaching in specific jurisdictions
  • Potential biosimilars or generics unlikely due to biologic complexity

4.4. Patent and Exclusivity Status

Patent Expiry Comments
2029–2030 Patents on Ivacaftor composition and formulation
Market exclusivity Expected to extend through regulatory data protections

5. Comparative Analysis: Kalydeco vs. Trikafta

Aspect Kalydeco Trikafta (Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor)
Indications Gating mutations only Broader; includes F508del with gating mutations
Years to Market 2012 2019
Revenue (2022) ~$1.5 billion ~$2.8 billion
Price (annual) ~$294,000 ~$310,000
Market Penetration Limited to mutation-specific groups Largest CF therapy by revenue
Development Cost High, but focused on mutation-specific drugs Higher, due to combination and broader application

Conclusion: Trikafta’s broader indication has overshadowed Kalydeco, but Kalydeco remains relevant in mutation-specific therapy.


6. Future Outlook

6.1. Indication Expansion and Global Reach

  • Potential approval for additional mutations
  • Extension into pediatric populations (<2 years)
  • Entry into Asian markets with expanding healthcare infrastructure

6.2. Potential Disruptors

  • Gene editing (CRISPR-based therapies)
  • Next-generation CFTR correctors and potentiators
  • Regulatory policy shifts towards affordability

6.3. Revenue Forecast (2023–2028)

Year Estimated Revenue (USD) Key Assumptions
2023 ~$1.6 billion Continued expansion, stable prices
2024 ~$1.7 billion Increased global access
2025 ~$1.8 billion Further indications and pediatric approvals
2026 ~$1.9 billion Market saturation begins, incremental growth
2027 ~$2.0 billion Mature market, competition ongoing

7. Key Takeaways

  • Kalydeco pioneered the targeted therapy approach in CF but faces competition from newer combination treatments with broader indications.
  • Revenue growth remains strong but is moderated by expanding competitors, high pricing, and regulatory evolution.
  • Global expansion and indication expansion are central to sustaining its market trajectory.
  • The drug’s high costs reinforce the importance of negotiation with payers and targeted patient access programs.
  • Innovations in gene editing and personalized medicine could challenge Kalydeco’s market dominance in the long term.

FAQs

1. How has the emergence of Trikafta affected Kalydeco's market?

Trikafta, approved in 2019, reports revenues of approximately $2.8 billion in 2022, surpassing Kalydeco due to its broader indication covering over 90% of CF patients. Consequently, Kalydeco’s share has declined, but it maintains relevance for mutation-specific subsets.

2. What regulatory approvals are expected to impact Kalydeco in the coming years?

Ongoing trials aim for approval in children under two and additional mutation types. Regulatory agencies in Asia and Latin America are also reviewing submissions, promising further market access.

3. What are the primary challenges for Kalydeco’s future growth?

Key challenges include increasing competition from more comprehensive therapies, high drug pricing constraining reimbursement, patent expirations, and the potential advent of gene editing therapies disrupting the current treatment paradigm.

4. How does Kalydeco’s pricing compare globally?

Prices vary significantly: the US lists approximately $294,000 annually, while European and other markets often negotiate rebates and discounts, leading to lower net prices.

5. What is the outlook for Kalydeco’s use in pediatric populations?

Regulatory bodies are evaluating data for use in children under two, which could substantially expand its market size, positively impacting future revenues.


References

[1] Vertex Pharmaceuticals. (2022). Annual Report.

[2] FDA. (2012–2022). Official approval documents and updates.

[3] European Medicines Agency. (2014–2022). Summary of product characteristics.

[4] IQVIA. (2023). State of the Pharmaceutical Market Data.

[5] ClinicalTrials.gov. (2022). Ongoing studies on CF therapies.


This analysis equips stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of Kalydeco’s market landscape, financial trajectory, and strategic outlook, enabling informed decision-making amidst a rapidly evolving CF treatment market.

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