The Drug Patent Cliff Is a Modeling Error: Why One Generic-Entry Date Breaks Your Pharma DCF
Bristol Myers Squibb reported $12,821 million in worldwide Revlimid revenue for 2021 [1]. It reported $2,951 million for 2025 [3].
The Analyst Note That Said “Patent Cliff Priced In” Never Checked Whether the Patent Was Even Valid
Novartis reported Entresto sales of $1,253 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. That figure was 43% below the $2,180
Stop Valuing Biosimilar Risk Like Small-Molecule Generic Risk: The Entry Curves Aren’t the Same Shape
AbbVie’s U.S. Humira revenue fell from $7,142 million in 2024 to $3,062 million in 2025, a 57.1% drop, two years
Why “Diversified Pipeline” Doesn’t Mean Diversified Patent Risk
Merck sold $29.5 billion of Keytruda in 2024. That is 45.9% of the company’s $64.2 billion in worldwide sales (analysis
Why “Diversified Pipeline” Doesn’t Mean Diversified Patent Risk Read Post »
Your CDMO Contract Renews Before the Patent Expires. You Are Negotiating Blind.
Novartis reported Entresto net sales of $1,253 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The same quarter in 2024 was
Your CDMO Contract Renews Before the Patent Expires. You Are Negotiating Blind. Read Post »
Evergreening Fails When a Judge Reads Your Own Marketing Materials
Forest Laboratories and Actavis projected that only 30 percent of Namenda IR users would move to Namenda XR voluntarily before
Evergreening Fails When a Judge Reads Your Own Marketing Materials Read Post »
The Drug Patent Litigation Docket Is a Leading Indicator Your Model Doesn’t Use
On July 22, 2025, the Federal Circuit denied Novartis’s motion for an injunction pending appeal and lifted its own short-term
The Drug Patent Litigation Docket Is a Leading Indicator Your Model Doesn’t Use Read Post »
Patent Win vs. Settlement: What Five Drug Cases Show Investors
On January 10, 2025, the Federal Circuit reversed a ruling that had invalidated Novartis’s Entresto patent, U.S. Patent No. 8,101,659.
Patent Win vs. Settlement: What Five Drug Cases Show Investors Read Post »
A ‘Strong Patent Portfolio’ Slide Is a Red Flag: What the Evidence Shows
The Short Answer: Why Does a ‘Strong Patent Portfolio’ Slide Worry Investors? A slide that says ‘Strong Patent Portfolio’ makes
A ‘Strong Patent Portfolio’ Slide Is a Red Flag: What the Evidence Shows Read Post »
