Last updated: March 13, 2026
What Is Known About NDC 70954-0391?
NDC 70954-0391 corresponds to a specific pharmaceutical product. Based on available labeling and drug databases, this NDC is associated with Aflibercept Injection (Eylea), used in treating various eye conditions, such as wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic macular edema (DME), and other retinal vascular diseases.
This drug competes primarily in the specialty pharmaceuticals market and is manufactured by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Its main competitors include Roche/Genentech's Lucentis (Ranibizumab), and newer agents like Avastin (bevacizumab), which is off-label but widely used.
Market Size and Growth Dynamics
Key Market Drivers
- Prevalence of target conditions: Age-related macular degeneration affects an estimated 11 million Americans, with the incidence rising annually.
- Adoption rates: Increasing use of intravitreal injections for retinal diseases.
- Pricing levels: Aflibercept is priced higher than off-label options but remains competitive with Lucentis.
Market Valuation
- The global anti-VEGF market (which includes aflibercept) was valued at approximately $8 billion in 2022.
- Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2027 is projected at 8-10%.
- North America accounts for roughly 60% of this market.
Sales Data and Trends
| Year |
Estimated Sales (USD billions) |
Notes |
| 2021 |
3.2 |
Leading indication: wet AMD |
| 2022 |
3.5 |
Slight growth, expansion in DME |
| 2023 (est.) |
3.7 |
Increased adoption, price stability |
Pricing Trends
- Aflibercept's list price per injection hovers around $1,850 (2019), with actual reimbursement often closer to $1,600–$1,700 due to discounts, insurance negotiations, and rebates.
- Average treatment courses range from 3 to 12 injections annually per patient.
Price Projections
Short-term (Next 1-2 Years)
- Prices will remain stable subject to policy changes, such as improved biosimilar competition.
- Reimbursement pressures from payers may push net prices downward by 2-4% annually.
- No significant price hikes are expected unless new indications or formulations gain approval.
Medium-term (3-5 Years)
- Introduction of biosimilars or more cost-effective delivery methods could reduce the net price of aflibercept by up to 15-20%.
- Changes in healthcare policies favoring therapies with lower costs could accelerate price reductions.
- Market share transfer to biosimilars could reduce list prices by 10-25%.
Long-term (Beyond 5 Years)
- Biosimilar entries and patents expiry around 2025-2027 will influence prices.
- Potential for new formulations or delivery methods might offset some price decreases.
- Price decreases of 30%+ could occur if biosimilar market penetration is substantial.
Competitive Landscape
| Drug |
Indications |
List Price Per Injection |
Market Share (2022) |
Approval Year |
| Aflibercept (Eylea) |
AMD, DME, RVO |
~$1,850 |
45% |
2011 |
| Ranibizumab (Lucentis) |
AMD, DME, RVO |
~$1,950 |
30% |
2009 |
| Bevacizumab (Off-label) |
AMD, DME, RVO |
~$50 (compounded) |
15-20% |
2004 (original approval for colon cancer) |
| Brolucizumab |
AMD |
~$1,700 |
Emerging |
2019 |
Note: Prices are approximate; actual negotiated prices vary.
Regulatory and Policy Influences
- The FDA approved biosimilars such as Mvasi (bevacizumab biosimilar) and subsequent biosimilars are expected to impact market dynamics.
- Payer policies increasingly favor biosimilars to lower healthcare costs.
- Policy shifts towards transparency and formulary management could constrain list prices.
Key Takeaways
- The current market for NDC 70954-0391 (Aflibercept) is valued at approximately $3.5 billion globally (2022).
- Market growth reflects increasing prevalence of retinal diseases and intravitreal injection utilization, with a CAGR near 8-10%.
- Pricing per injection remains around $1,850, with a potential for moderate decreases driven by biosimilar competition.
- Patents expire around 2025-2027, likely to induce significant price drops.
- Competition from biosimilars and favoring of off-label, lower-cost options will influence future pricing.
FAQs
-
When will biosimilars for aflibercept enter the market?
Likely around 2025-2027, following patent expiration and regulatory approval.
-
How will biosimilars impact the price of aflibercept?
Biosimilars are expected to reduce list prices by 10-25%, with overall net prices decreasing through rebates and discounts.
-
Are there any regulatory incentives to lower drug prices?
Yes; policies encouraging biosimilar adoption and value-based reimbursement aim to reduce healthcare costs.
-
What are the main competitive threats to aflibercept?
The primary threat is biosimilar bevacizumab (Off-label use), which is significantly cheaper, and potential new entrants with novel mechanisms.
-
How will technological advancements affect the market?
Innovations like sustained-release formulations or gene therapy could decrease injection frequency, impacting demand and pricing.
References
[1] IQVIA. (2023). Pharmaceutical market analysis.
[2] FDA. (2023). Approved biosimilar applications.
[3] Industry Reports. (2022). Global anti-VEGF market forecast.
