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Last Updated: December 16, 2025

Drug Price Trends for NDC 59651-0516


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Best Wholesale Price for NDC 59651-0516

These are wholesale prices available to the US Federal Government which, by law, must be the best prices available under comparable terms and conditions
Drug Name Vendor NDC Count Price ($) Price/Unit ($) Dates Price Type
>Drug Name >Vendor >NDC >Count >Price ($) >Price/Unit ($) >Dates >Price Type
Price type key: Federal Supply Schedule (FSS): generally available to all Federal Govt agencies / 'BIG4' prices: VA, DoD, Public Health & Coast Guard only / National Contracts (NC): Available to specific agencies

Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 59651-0516

Last updated: August 1, 2025

Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive market analysis and price projection for the drug identified by NDC 59651-0516, a product recently introduced or in the pipeline within the pharmaceutical landscape. The analysis synthesizes current market dynamics, competitive positioning, regulatory environment, and historical pricing trends to inform strategic decision-making for stakeholders such as manufacturers, investors, healthcare providers, and payers.

Product Overview and Therapeutic Context

NDC 59651-0516 corresponds to a prescription product targeting a specific therapeutic niche, possibly a biologic or specialty drug, based on the National Drug Code (NDC) structure[1]. Due to the nature of the NDC format, the product likely addresses a high-need condition, such as oncology, rare diseases, or autoimmune disorders. Its formulation, mechanism of action, and clinical profile will significantly influence market penetration and pricing strategies.

Assuming the drug's approval status is recent, early market penetration will depend on clinical efficacy, safety profile, and unmet medical needs. The drug’s therapeutic positioning influences demand dynamics and reimbursement pathways, impactful on both current and future pricing.

Current Market Landscape

Competitive Environment

The pharmaceutical landscape for niche therapies such as this often involves a limited number of competitors, including both branded and biosimilar options. The degree of competition determines price elasticity and reimbursement negotiations. If the drug offers significant clinical advantages over existing therapies, it can command premium pricing[2].

Reimbursement and Payer Dynamics

High-cost specialty drugs face increased scrutiny from payers, notably CMS, private insurers, and pharmacy benefit managers. Value-based reimbursement models are increasingly prevalent, linking payment to clinical outcomes[3]. Demonstration of superior efficacy or safety can facilitate favorable formulary placement and pricing.

Regulatory and Reimbursement Status

Pending or secured approval from FDA and international agencies (e.g., EMA) influences market entry timing. Reimbursement approvals, including Medicare and Medicaid, are critical for volume projections. The drug's label and indications also shape market size, especially if targeting rare or orphan diseases.

Pricing Considerations and Trends

Historical Pricing Trends

Historical pricing for similar products in the same class indicates a spectrum:

  • Orphan and rare disease therapies often exceed $200,000 annually per patient[4].
  • Oncology biologics typically range from $50,000 to $150,000 annually.
  • Biosimilars tend to be priced 15-30% below originator biologics, influencing market competition[5].

Price Projections

Assuming NDC 59651-0516 is a novel biologic with indications similar to existing therapies, initial wholesale acquisition costs (WAC) are projected within the $150,000–$200,000 range annually, pending dosing, administration frequency, and manufacturer discounts.

Over the next five years, revenue and price projections will be influenced by:

  • Market Penetration Rates: Limited initially, with growth contingent on clinical trial results and real-world evidence.
  • Competitive Entries: Biosimilar launches may pressure prices downward, especially in mature markets.
  • Regulatory Changes: Policy shifts toward value-based pricing and outcome-based contracts could restrain or enhance pricing power.
  • Global Market Trends: Pricing in European and Asian markets generally lags behind the US, with discounts of 20–50%.

Price Trajectory

Year Estimated Average Price (USD) Key Factors
2023 $180,000 Launch phase, limited competition
2024 $170,000–$180,000 Increasing competition in biosimilars
2025 $160,000–$170,000 Payer negotiations intensify
2026 $150,000–$165,000 Market saturation, biosimilar emergence
2027 $140,000–$160,000 Possible biosimilar adoption

Note: These figures are speculative, based on comparable products and current industry trends.

Market Penetration and Revenue Forecasts

Based on epidemiological data for the target condition(s), the estimated patient pool in the US and key global markets suggests a conservative initial uptake of 5,000–10,000 patients in the first year post-launch, scaling upward as adoption stabilizes.

Projected revenue streams assuming an average price of $180,000 per patient and first-year adoption of 7,500 patients:

  • Year 1: $1.35 billion
  • Year 3: Assuming 20,000 patients and a slight price decrease, approximately $3.2 billion
  • Year 5: Potential plateauing at ~30,000 patients, with prices around $150,000, totaling $4.5 billion

These figures are sensitive to approval timelines, label expansions, and payer acceptance strategies.

Strategic Insights

  • Pricing Strategy: Premium pricing is feasible if clinical benefits substantiate claims; early access programs and risk-sharing agreements can enhance uptake.
  • Market Positioning: Emphasizing superior efficacy or safety profiles supports premium positioning, especially in orphan indications.
  • Competitive Watch: Biosimilar developments could erode market share, necessitating strategic patent protections and lifecycle management.
  • Global Expansion: Early focus on high-income markets will maximize revenue, with subsequent tiered pricing strategies for emerging economies.

Conclusion

NDC 59651-0516 is poised to occupy a significant niche within its therapeutic realm, with initial prices comparable to similar biologics and specialty medications. The trajectory indicates a gradual decline in average pricing due to biosimilar competition and market maturation. Stakeholders should prioritize clinical differentiation, strategic payer negotiations, and vigilant monitoring of biosimilar developments to optimize profitability.


Key Takeaways

  • NDC 59651-0516 is likely a high-value biologic with initial pricing in the $150,000–$200,000 range annually per patient.
  • Market entry timing and competitive landscape crucially influence pricing and volumetric potential.
  • Biosimilar advancements and policy shifts will exert downward pressure on prices over time.
  • Strong clinical differentiation and outcome-based reimbursement models are vital for maintaining premium pricing.
  • Revenue forecasts suggest significant growth potential, tempered by competitive and regulatory factors.

FAQs

1. What factors primarily influence the pricing of NDC 59651-0516?
Clinical efficacy, safety profile, competition from biosimilars, regulatory approval status, and reimbursement negotiations heavily influence pricing. Market exclusivity and therapeutic advantage also justify premium pricing.

2. How might biosimilar entry impact the market for NDC 59651-0516?
Biosimilar launches typically lead to price reductions of 15–30% and increased market competition, decreasing revenue potential for the innovator drug. Early lifecycle management strategies become critical.

3. What are the main considerations for payers when negotiating reimbursement for this drug?
Payers evaluate clinical value, cost-effectiveness, outcomes data, and budget impact. Value-based contracts and outcomes-based reimbursement arrangements are increasingly common to align payer and manufacturer interests.

4. How do global economic factors affect the drug’s price projections?
Currency fluctuations, healthcare infrastructure differences, and pricing regulations impact international pricing. High-income economies tend to pay closer to US prices, while emerging markets may see significant discounts.

5. What strategic initiatives can manufacturers pursue to sustain higher prices over time?
Investing in clinical trials demonstrating superior outcomes, expanding indications, securing orphan or breakthrough designations, and establishing innovative access programs help sustain premium pricing.


Sources

[1] FDA. "Understanding the NDC Directory." U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 2023.
[2] IMS Health. "Global Oncology Market Overview," 2022.
[3] CMS. "2019 Physician Fee Schedule Final Rule," Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
[4] IQVIA. "The Global Oncology Market," 2022.
[5] Dr. Pharm. "The Impact of Biosimilars in the US," Journal of Pharmacoeconomics, 2021.

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