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Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC: 50261-0313
Last updated: March 22, 2026
What is NDC 50261-0313?
NDC 50261-0313 refers to Balversa (erdafitinib), an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of metastatic or locally advanced urothelial carcinoma with FGFR3 or FGFR2 genetic alterations. Approved by the FDA in June 2019, it targets FGFR gene abnormalities in bladder cancer.
Market Size and Demand Dynamics
Urothelial Carcinoma (UC) Market
Estimated global prevalence: approximately 550,000 cases annually.
U.S. cases per year: roughly 82,000 (per American Cancer Society, 2022).
Urothelial carcinoma accounts for about 90% of bladder cancers.
Unmet Medical Need
Standard treatments include chemotherapy and immunotherapy.
Approximately 20-25% of UC cases harbor FGFR genetic alterations, making them eligible for erdafitinib (Balversa).
Market penetration is driven by the prevalence of FGFR mutations, with FDA approval targeting personalized therapies.
Key Competitors
Erdafitinib (Balversa) is the first approved FGFR inhibitor for UC.
Upcoming competitors include Rogaratinib (oral FGFR inhibitor, in late-phase trials).
Existing treatments include immune checkpoint inhibitors like Atezolizumab and Pembrolizumab, but these are not mutation-specific.
Market Adoption
Initial adoption has been cautious due to safety concerns and need for genetic testing.
As of 2022, approximately 10,000-12,000 prescriptions issued in the U.S.
Growth projected at 15-20% annually from 2023-2028, contingent on clinical trial results and regulatory approvals of competitors.
Pricing Analysis
Current Price Point
Wholesale acquisition cost (WAC): approximately $17,480 per 30-day supply (per SSR Health, 2022).
Cost factors: includes pricing strategies to recoup R&D investment and align with market demand.
Reimbursement Landscape
Insurance coverage is robust; Medicare and Medicaid cover a significant portion.
Out-of-pocket costs vary but typically range between $150-$400/month for patients with insurance.
Price Trends and Projections
Year
Price per 30-day Supply
Notes
2022
$17,480
Current standard pricing established post-approval.
2023
$17,480
Likely remains stable; no significant price erosion expected soon.
2024
$16,600
Possible reduction as biosimilar or generic competitors emerge, contingent on patent status and market entry.
2025
$15,500
Further price decreases could occur if biosimilars increase market competition or if payer negotiations tighten.
Cost-Effectiveness and Value-Based Pricing
Cost-effectiveness ratios estimated at $100,000 - $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) based on clinical benefits.
Payers are increasingly demanding evidence of value for high-cost drugs.
Patent and Regulatory Considerations
Patent protection covers formulation and manufacturing processes until at least 2030.
Patent challenges or extensions could influence pricing power.
Future license extensions or new indications could prolong exclusivity.
Market Forecast Summary
Year
Market Size (Patients)
Total Sales (USD)
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Remarks
2022
12,000
$210 million
—
Initial uptake
2023
13,260
$232 million
10%
Growing adoption
2024
14,600
$255 million
10%
Competitive pressures expected
2025
16,000
$278 million
9%
Market stabilization
Key Challenges
Precision medicine reliance mandates widespread genetic testing, adding to costs.
Safety concerns limit adoption among some patient populations.
Competition from emerging FGFR inhibitors and immunotherapies.
Strategic Outlook
Continued clinical trials may expand indications and increase patient eligibility.
Price stability is expected through 2023; decline could accelerate upon introduction of biosimilars or new competitors.
Market expansion hinges on physician awareness of FGFR testing.
Key Takeaways
NDC 50261-0313 (Balversa) targets a niche within bladder cancer treatment, comprising early adopter and niche market segments.
Current pricing aligns with high-cost oncology therapeutics, supported by reimbursement coverage.
Market growth depends heavily on genetic testing adoption and successful clinical outcomes.
Competition and patent status will influence future pricing and market share.
Forecasted sales project moderate growth, with prices remaining relatively stable until biosimilar entry or alternative therapies gain traction.
FAQs
What is the main driver for Balversa’s market growth?
The increasing adoption of genetic testing to identify FGFR-mutated urothelial carcinoma patients sustains growth.
How does Balversa’s price compare to other targeted therapies?
It is similar; for example, osimertinib (Tagrisso) costs around $15,000 per month, while pembrolizumab (Keytruda) averages $10,000 per dose.
What regulatory hurdles could impact future pricing?
Patent expirations, biosimilar approvals, or new indications could introduce generic competition, exerting downward pressure on prices.
What are the main factors influencing reimbursement?
Coverage policies, demonstrated clinical benefit, and the presence of value-based agreements impact reimbursement levels.
Are there upcoming competitors threatening Balversa’s market share?
Yes. Several FGFR inhibitors are in late-stage trials, and some have shown promising efficacy signatures, which could challenge Balversa’s dominance.
Citations
[1] American Cancer Society. (2022). Bladder Cancer Stat Facts.
[2] SSR Health. (2022). Prescription Drug Pricing Data.
[3] FDA. (2019). Approvals and Indications for Erdafitinib.
[4] MarketWatch. (2022). Oncology Drug Market Trends.
[5] EvaluatePharma. (2022). Oncology Market Forecast Data.
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