Last updated: March 30, 2026
What is the drug associated with NDC 31722-0821?
NDC 31722-0821 is identified as Moderna's mRNA-1273 vaccine, marketed primarily for COVID-19 immunization. Common trade names include Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine.
What is the current market landscape?
Market adoption and demand
- The vaccine has been authorized under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by FDA since December 2020.
- As of Q4 2022, over 600 million doses have been distributed in the U.S. alone (CDC, 2023).
- Global demand remains high, especially in regions with limited access to other vaccines.
Competitive environment
| Vaccine |
Platform |
Approval Status |
Dosing Schedule |
| Moderna mRNA-1273 |
mRNA |
EUA; Full approval (FDA, June 2022) |
2 doses, 28 days apart |
| Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 |
mRNA |
EUA; Full approval (FDA, August 2021) |
2 doses, 3 weeks apart |
| Johnson & Johnson JNJ-78436735 |
Viral vector |
EUA |
Single dose |
- Moderna's vaccine holds about 40% of the US COVID-19 vaccine market (Kaiser Family Foundation, 2023).
Regulatory developments
- In June 2022, FDA granted full approval for Moderna’s vaccine for those 18 years and older.
- Several countries have issued emergency or provisional authorizations, expanding the vaccine's reach.
Price analysis: current and projected
Historical pricing (U.S. federal procurement)
| Period |
Price per dose |
Notes |
| 2021 |
$15 - $25 |
Initial federal contracts |
| 2022 |
$28 - $32 |
Price increases as contracts renewed |
| 2023 |
$40 - $60 |
Negotiated pricing under CDC’s VICP |
Factors influencing price changes
- U.S. government negotiated prices (via BARDA, CDC), lower than private sector.
- International prices vary, with some countries paying significantly less due to agreements (e.g., COVAX, bilateral deals).
- Manufacturing costs have increased due to supply chain constraints and scale increases.
Projected pricing trends (2024-2026)
| Year |
Expected Price per Dose |
Key Factors |
| 2024 |
$60 - $80 |
Market expansion, increased demand, supply constraints |
| 2025 |
$55 - $75 |
Competitive pressure from next-generation vaccines |
| 2026 |
$50 - $70 |
Normalization as global COVID-19 incidence declines |
Price drivers
- Development of booster formulations and variant-specific updates will increase R&D costs but may lower vaccine prices over time.
- Supply chain efficiency improvements could reduce manufacturing costs, preventing significant price escalation.
- Policy decisions such as patent waivers or licensing agreements could affect pricing.
Key market considerations
- Patent expiration or licensing agreements could influence manufacturing costs and licensing revenue.
- The entry of biosimilar or next-generation mRNA vaccines may expand competition.
- Government procurement policies remain pivotal in influencing pricing in large markets.
Summary of Market and Price Outlook
| Aspect |
Observation |
| Market penetration |
Stable demand with a shift towards booster doses |
| Competitive position |
Leading mRNA vaccine, with competition from Pfizer and upcoming candidates |
| Pricing trajectory |
Rising through 2024, then declining as competition and supply balance out |
Key Takeaways
- NDC 31722-0821 (Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine) retains dominant market share with high global demand.
- U.S. federal prices have increased from early pandemic levels, with future projections suggesting stabilization around $50-$70 per dose by 2026.
- International prices vary widely; global access remains a key challenge.
- Emerging competition and regulatory developments could impact market share and pricing.
FAQs
1. Will the price of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine decrease after 2026?
It is unlikely to decrease significantly unless new competitors enter or patents expire, leading to biosimilar development.
2. How do supply chain disruptions affect vaccine pricing?
Supply chain issues increase production costs, which can lead to higher prices unless offset by efficiency gains or market adjustments.
3. Are there differences in pricing between developed and developing countries?
Yes. Developed countries tend to negotiate higher prices, while COVAX and bilateral agreements offer lower prices in developing regions.
4. What impact does booster development have on vaccine pricing?
Booster shot formulations may increase R&D costs initially but could lead to higher short-term prices before stabilizing with increased production.
5. When might competition from biosimilars or next-generation vaccines emerge?
Biosimilar versions could appear around 2025-2027, depending on patent expiry and regulatory pathways.
References
[1] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2023). COVID-19 Data Tracker.
[2] Kaiser Family Foundation. (2023). COVID-19 Vaccine Market Share.
[3] U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). (2022). Approval Letters for COVID-19 Vaccines.
