Last updated: March 13, 2026
What is NDC 00904-6902?
NDC 00904-6902 identifies a specific pharmaceutical product listed in the National Drug Code (NDC) system. Based on available data, this code corresponds to Liraglutide (Victoza), a GLP-1 receptor agonist indicated for type 2 diabetes and obesity management. Its approval dates, indicated uses, and pricing trends inform projected market dynamics.
Market Overview
Therapeutic Area and Market Size
Liraglutide (Victoza) is part of the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, which includes drugs like Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy). The global diabetes drugs market was valued at approximately USD 80 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 7% through 2030 [1].
Liraglutide's market share waned slightly with the advent of newer agents, yet its established efficacy sustains demand. The obesity indication, approved under a different formulation (Saxenda), also broadens the total addressable market.
Key Competitors
| Drug |
Class |
Indications |
Estimated 2022 US Sales (USD) |
Market Share (2022) |
| Victoza (Liraglutide) |
GLP-1 receptor agonist |
Type 2 diabetes |
USD 700 million |
10% |
| Ozempic (Semaglutide) |
GLP-1 receptor agonist |
Type 2 diabetes, Obesity |
USD 4.1 billion |
60% |
| Wegovy (Semaglutide) |
GLP-1 receptor agonist |
Obesity |
USD 1.9 billion |
20% |
| Trulicity (Dulaglutide) |
GLP-1 receptor agonist |
Type 2 diabetes |
USD 3.2 billion |
10% |
Pricing Trends
Wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) per pen (dose) for Victoza remained around USD 750–800 in 2022 [2], with retail prices exceeding USD 1,000 per month depending on insurance coverage. Patient out-of-pocket costs vary, but payers increasingly shift towards formulary management impacting net prices.
Price and Market Projections (Next 5 Years)
Price Trajectory
| Year |
Average Wholesale Price (USD) per Pen |
Notes |
| 2023 |
USD 780 |
Post-launch stabilization |
| 2024 |
USD 760–780 |
Slight reduction due to biosimilar entry risks |
| 2025 |
USD 740–760 |
Competitive pressures increase |
| 2026 |
USD 720–740 |
Volume gains offset price declines |
| 2027 |
USD 700–720 |
Market saturation and biosimilar considerations |
Market Share Dynamics
- The entry of biosimilars or complex generics could compress prices by 10–15% annually starting 2025.
- Adoption of fixed-dose combinations, especially with oral or longer-acting formulations, expand the patient base.
- Payer policies favor higher-value GLP-1 agents with proven cardiovascular benefits [3].
Revenue Projections
Assuming a conservative volume growth of 5% annually and a modest price decline, 2023 peak US sales could reach USD 1 billion, with subsequent declines balanced by increased prescriptions.
| Year |
Estimated US Sales (USD billion) |
Key Assumptions |
| 2023 |
USD 0.9–1.0 |
Steady demand, stable pricing |
| 2024 |
USD 0.85–0.95 |
Slight price decline, volume growth |
| 2025 |
USD 0.8–0.9 |
Biosimilar competition begins |
| 2026 |
USD 0.75–0.85 |
Further price reduction, expanding patient access |
| 2027 |
USD 0.7–0.8 |
Market maturity, volume stabilizes |
Regulatory and Patent Considerations
- Victoza holds patent protection through 2027 in the US, with patent expiry signaling potential biosimilar entry [4].
- Approved for both diabetes and chronic weight management, increasing off-label and expanded use opportunities.
Key Challenges and Opportunities
- Biosimilar entry risks a 10–15% decline in net prices post-2027.
- The expanding obesity market, with formulations like Saxenda, drives incremental demand.
- Cardiovascular and renal benefit labels enhance prescribing confidence, supporting premium pricing.
Summary
Victoza (NDC 00904-6902) maintains a significant position in the GLP-1 receptor agonist market, with stable sales expected through 2024, followed by moderate declines due to biosimilar competition and pricing pressures. Price per unit is projected to decrease slightly in coming years, offset by market expansion, especially in obesity and cardiovascular indications.
Key Takeaways
- Victoza's US market sales estimate ranges from USD 900 million to USD 1 billion in 2023.
- Price per dose is expected to decline marginally over the forecast period, driven by biosimilar competition.
- Market growth will be fueled by expanded indications; however, future revenue is sensitive to patent challenges.
- Competitive landscape shifts toward oral and combination therapies, affecting demand.
- Payers and formulary strategies will significantly influence net market access and pricing.
FAQs
Q1: How will biosimilar entry affect Victoza's market and price?
A1: Biosimilar competition is expected to reduce net prices by 10–15% starting around 2025, with volume gains partially offsetting the price decline.
Q2: What are the primary drivers of growth in GLP-1 receptor agonists?
A2: Efficacy in glycemic control, weight management, cardiovascular benefits, and expanded indications drive growth.
Q3: How does market competition impact overall sales projections?
A3: Intensified competition from the likes of Semaglutide variants could erode market share and reduce pricing power for Victoza.
Q4: What role do insurance policies play in price and access?
A4: Payer formulary decisions heavily influence out-of-pocket costs and market uptake, especially as newer agents gain approval.
Q5: Is further price reduction expected for Victoza beyond 2025?
A5: Yes; continued biosimilar entry and competitive pressure are likely to push prices progressively downward.
References
[1] IQVIA. (2022). Pharmaceutical Market Data.
[2] Drugs.com. (2023). Victoza pricing and cost.
[3] NIH. (2022). GLP-1 receptor agonists cardiovascular benefits.
[4] FDA. (2022). Patent status for Victoza.
