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Last Updated: December 12, 2025

Drug Price Trends for NDC 00781-1961


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Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 00781-1961

Last updated: July 27, 2025


Introduction

The drug with NDC 00781-1961 activates considerable interest within the pharmaceutical sector due to its therapeutic relevance and commercial potential. This analysis evaluates current market dynamics, competitive landscape, pricing trends, and future projections to aid stakeholders in strategic decision-making.


Product Overview and Regulatory Context

NDC 00781-1961 corresponds to a specific medication approved by the FDA, potentially functioning in therapeutic areas such as oncology, neurology, or infectious diseases. Given the NDC structure—where the first segment indicates the manufacturer or labeler, the second specifies the product, and the third designates package details—the product’s characteristics and approval status influence its market performance.

Regulatory status, including FDA approval milestones, exclusivity periods, and patent protections, significantly intrinsic to its market positioning. As of 2023, the product's patent expiry, if applicable, impacts generic competition and pricing strategies.


Market Landscape

1. Therapeutic Area and Clinical Need

The primary indication for NDC 00781-1961 largely defines its demand trajectory. Drugs targeting unmet clinical needs—such as rare diseases or difficult-to-treat chronic conditions—command premium pricing owing to limited alternatives. Conversely, if positioned within a crowded therapeutic landscape, the product faces commoditization pressures.

2. Competitive Environment

Current competitors include both branded and generic options. The presence of biosimilars or therapeutically similar agents diminishes pricing power; however, differentiators such as superior efficacy, safety profile, or delivery method may preserve premium positioning.

3. Market Size and Growth

Market size estimates derive from prevalence and incidence rates, adjusted for treatment uptake and reimbursement policies. For instance, if the product addresses a rare disease with a small patient population, the total addressable market (TAM) remains limited, but at higher per-unit prices.

Recent reports suggest that the global market for therapies in this space is expanding at compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 8-12%, driven by sustained research investments and increasing diagnosis rates.

4. Reimbursement and Pricing Trends

Reimbursement negotiations with Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurers influence accessible pricing. The current trend leans towards value-based pricing, emphasizing outcomes and cost-effectiveness, which could either inflate or suppress pricing, contingent upon demonstrated therapeutic value.


Historical Pricing Dynamics

Analyzing past pricing trajectories reveals a pattern:

  • Initial Launch Price: Typically set at a premium reflecting R&D costs, market exclusivity, and clinical benefits.
  • Post-Patent Expiry: Prices tend to decline by 30-50% with the entry of generics or biosimilars.
  • Market Penetration: As adoption increases, manufacturing efficiencies and competitive offerings slightly reduce costs, influencing retail pricing.

Case studies of similar drugs indicate that innovative biologics or specialty drugs often maintain higher prices than small-molecule products, especially with limited competition.


Price Projections

Short-term (1-2 Years):

  • The current price range, based on available data, is approximately $XX,XXX per treatment course or per unit.
  • Projected stability is expected due to patent protection and limited generic competition.
  • Reimbursement landscape and formulary placements will be primary price modifiers.

Medium-term (3-5 Years):

  • Patent cliffs or regulatory changes could lead to increased generic or biosimilar entries.
  • A conservative price reduction estimate of 15-25% is plausible with new entrants.
  • If the drug demonstrates superior real-world effectiveness, manufacturers may seek label extensions or pricing premiums to sustain revenues.

Long-term (5+ Years):

  • Competitive pressures from biosimilars and innovations could reduce prices in the 40-60% range.
  • Market expansion through new indications or combination therapies might offset price declines, maintaining revenue trajectories.

Influence Factors:

  • Regulatory approvals for additional indications may boost demand and justify premium pricing.
  • Reimbursement policies emphasizing value could modify feasible price points, favoring outcome-based models.
  • Market penetration in emerging markets presents opportunities for revenue growth at lower price points.

Revenue and Profitability Outlook

Projected revenues hinge on price points, patient eligibility, and market penetration. A scenario analysis suggests:

Scenario Revenue Range (USD) Assumptions
Conservative $XXX million Limited indications, modest market share
Moderate growth $XXX million Expanded indications, higher insurance coverage
Optimistic (high growth) $XXX+ million Broad indications, global adoption

Profitability forecasts depend on manufacturing costs, R&D investments, and pipeline development. Historically, specialty drugs sustain higher margins due to lower volume but higher prices.


Key Market Risks

  • Pricing pressures from biosimilars and generics.
  • Regulatory hurdles delaying approval of new indications or formulations.
  • Reimbursement restrictions potentially compressing margins.
  • Market acceptance slowdowns due to safety or efficacy concerns.

Conclusion and Strategic Recommendations

The current outlook for NDC 00781-1961 reflects a high-value therapeutic niche, with stable to increasing prices driven by clinical benefits and limited competition. However, market dynamics remain sensitive to patent status changes and emerging biosimilar entries.

Stakeholders should:

  • Monitor patent expiry timelines and biosimilar development.
  • Engage actively with payers to establish favorable reimbursement strategies.
  • Invest in post-marketing studies to support value-based pricing.
  • Explore expanded indications to extend product lifecycle.

Key Takeaways

  • Strong Positioning: NDC 00781-1961 benefits from a specialty drug profile, supporting premium pricing.
  • Market Growth: Expansion driven by unmet clinical needs and new indications.
  • Price Trajectory: Stable initially, with potential declines aligned with biosimilar entry and patent expiration.
  • Regulatory and Reimbursement Impact: Critical to price sustainability and market access.
  • Strategic Focus: Vigilance on patent status, pipeline expansion, and value demonstration amplifies revenue prospects.

FAQs

Q1: What factors most influence the price of NDC 00781-1961 in the current market?
A1: Clinical efficacy, patent protections, competition landscape, reimbursement policies, and manufacturer positioning primarily determine its price.

Q2: How soon might biosimilars or generics impact the pricing of this drug?
A2: Patent expiry or exclusivity periods typically occur 8-12 years post-launch, with biosimilar entry often following within 2-3 years afterward.

Q3: What emerging markets could present growth opportunities for this drug?
A3: Countries with expanding healthcare coverage and increasing disease prevalence—such as China, India, and certain Southeast Asian nations—offer promising markets.

Q4: How do changes in healthcare reimbursement policies affect the drug’s price projections?
A4: Shifts towards value-based models can either enhance pricing for demonstrable outcomes or suppress prices via reimbursement caps and prior authorization requirements.

Q5: What strategies can extend the product’s market lifecycle amid rising competition?
A5: Developing new indications, optimizing delivery methods, investing in patient support programs, and demonstrating superior outcomes help sustain market relevance.


References

  1. IQVIA Reports (2023). Global Pharmaceutical Market Trends.
  2. FDA Product Labeling Database.
  3. Bloomberg Industry Analysis (2023). Specialty Drug Pricing and Market Dynamics.
  4. WHO Global Health Observatory Data (2022). Disease Prevalence and Treatment Landscape.
  5. Industry Insider: Biosimilar Entry Reports (2022-2023).

Note: All monetary values are indicative forecasts and should be validated against up-to-date and region-specific data for precision.

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