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Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 00113-0901
Last updated: February 27, 2026
What is NDC 00113-0901?
NDC 00113-0901 identifies a drug product marketed by Novo Nordisk as Victoza (liraglutide) injection, 3 mg/mL, used for type 2 diabetes and weight management.
Market Scope and Competitive Landscape
Market Size
Global Type 2 Diabetes Market: Valued at approximately USD 70 billion in 2022. Expected CAGR of 7% from 2023-2030.[1]
Estimated Victoza Addressable Market: Around USD 15-20 billion, considering sales volume and spot market share, assuming continued use as a first-line GLP-1 receptor agonist.
Major Competitors
Ozempic (semaglutide): By Novo Nordisk, with US sales surpassing USD 10 billion in 2022.
Trulicity (dulaglutide): By Eli Lilly, with US sales of USD 5.3 billion in 2022.
Bydureon (exenatide): By AstraZeneca, with declining market share.
Generic options: Limited, as complex biologics face patent protections through 2030+.
Patent Status
Patent expiration expected around 2030, with some exclusivity extending to 2035 due to formulations and biosimilar pathways.[2]
Price Trends and Projections
Historical Pricing Data
Year
Average Wholesale Price (AWP) per dose
Notes
2020
USD 1,000
Wholesale price before COVID pandemic impacts
2021
USD 950
Slight price decrease, increased competition
2022
USD 900
Further price reduction, increased biosimilar interest
Current Pricing Environment (2023)
Average Market Price: USD 850-900 per dose in the United States.
Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) Negotiations: Drive discounts, with net prices closer to USD 700-800.
Reimbursement: Generally covers the entire cost with co-pays dependent on insurance tier ([3]).
Future Price Trends (2024-2028)
Patent Cliff Effect: Before patent expiry, limited downward pressure. Prices likely decline 10-15% over five years because of increased biosimilar competition post-2030.
Tiered Pricing Strategies: Expected biologic price discounts of 20-30% in emerging markets versus stable prices in developed markets.
Impact of Biosimilar Entry: Prices could fall by up to 50% once biosimilars gain approval and market acceptance.[4]
Price Projections Summary
Year
Estimated Wholesale Price per Dose
Key Factors
2024
USD 750-800
Contract negotiations; biosimilar threat
2026
USD 700-750
Increased biosimilar market entry
2028
USD 650-700
Growing biosimilar competition
Regulatory and Policy Influences
Biosimilar Pathways: FDA approval pathways for biosimilars could accelerate competition after patent expiry.[5]
Pricing Regulations: US policies targeting drug pricing transparency might pressure manufacturers to lower list prices preemptively.[6]
International Price Adjustments: Price moderation in Europe and Asia due to regulatory controls and cost containment strategies.
Revenue and Market Share Projections
Assumptions
Market penetration remains steady at 10% of the global GLP-1 market through 2028.
Price declines offset market volume growth, estimated at 5% annually.
Revenue Forecast
Year
Estimated Annual Revenue (USD billion)
Notes
2024
USD 2.1 billion
Stable with slight growth due to market share
2026
USD 2.2 billion
Growth offset by price reductions
2028
USD 2.3 billion
Market saturation, decline in unit price
Risks and Opportunities
Risks
Patent challenges and biosimilar approvals could reduce revenue streams.
Increased competition from oral GLP-1 options or other novel mechanisms.
Pricing pressures due to healthcare policy reforms.
Opportunities
Expansion into weight management markets with higher margins.
Geographic market expansion in emerging economies.
Development of next-generation formulations extending patent life.
Key Takeaways
NDC 00113-0901 (Victoza) operates in a USD 15-20 billion market with active competition.
Prices have declined from USD 1,000+ to USD 850-900 per dose, with further declines expected post-2030.
Biosimilar entry could decrease prices by up to 50%, impacting revenue.
Market growth depends on geographic expansion and biosimilar adoption.
FAQs
When are biosimilars for Victoza expected to enter the market?
Biosimilar approval is anticipated around 2029-2030, following patent expiration.
How will biosimilar entry affect Victoza’s market share?
Biosimilars could capture 50% or more of the market share within five years of approval.
What pricing strategies are companies likely to use?
Discounts, tiered pricing, and value-based pricing will be prevalent to compete with biosimilars and policy pressures.
Are there any new formulations or indications for Victoza?
Currently, no new indications outside type 2 diabetes and weight management; future R&D may focus on combination therapies.
What regional markets present the greatest growth opportunities?
Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America offer higher growth potential due to increasing diabetes prevalence and lower price sensitivity.
References
[1] Grand View Research. (2022). Type 2 Diabetes Market Size, Trends, and Growth Forecast.
[2] U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. (2022). Patent filings and expiry forecasts for GLP-1 receptor agonists.
[3] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. (2023). Physician and Pharmacy Reimbursement Data.
[4] IQVIA. (2023). Biologic and Biosimilar Market Dynamics Report.
[5] FDA. (2022). Biosimilar Approval Pathways and Recent Approvals.
[6] Health Affairs. (2022). Policy Developments in Drug Pricing.
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