Last updated: February 27, 2026
Drug Overview
NDC 83324-0109 corresponds to Verzenio (abemaciclib). It is an oral CDK4/6 inhibitor approved by the FDA for treating HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. Launched in 2017, Verzenio is marketed by Eli Lilly and Company.
Market Landscape
Market Size and Demand
- The global breast cancer market was valued at approximately USD 16 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 22 billion by 2027 (CAGR: 5.4%), driven by increasing prevalence and improved diagnostics.
- In the U.S., roughly 268,600 new cases of invasive breast cancer were diagnosed in 2022, with HR-positive subtypes representing approximately 70% (American Cancer Society, 2022).
- CDK4/6 inhibitors, including Verzenio, have captured significant market share as frontline treatments, competing primarily with Pfizer’s Ibrance (palbociclib) and Novartis’ Kisqali (ribociclib).
Competitive Position
| Drug |
Launch Year |
Indications |
Market Share (2022) |
List Price (Per Month) |
Key Competitors |
| Verzenio |
2017 |
HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer |
35% |
USD 8,500 |
Ibrance, Kisqali |
| Ibrance |
2015 |
HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer |
45% |
USD 8,000 |
Verzenio, Kisqali |
| Kisqali |
2017 |
HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer |
20% |
USD 8,200 |
Verzenio, Ibrance |
Note: Prices are approximate median retail list prices in the U.S.
Market Penetration
- Verzenio’s unique oral dosing schedule (twice daily with food) has helped its adoption.
- Its efficacy profile is comparable to competitors, with some data suggesting superior tolerability regarding neutropenia.
Price Trajectory and Projections
Historical Pricing Trends
- Upon launch in 2017, Verzenio’s monthly list price was approximately USD 9,100.
- By 2019, the price stabilized around USD 8,900, with a gradual decrease attributed to competitive pressure and payor negotiations.
- Market expansion and updated dosing guidelines have marginally influenced pricing in recent years.
Factors Influencing Price Changes
- Competitive Dynamics: Price adjustments occur to maintain market share against Ibrance and Kisqali.
- Manufacturing and R&D Costs: Slight increases due to inflation and formulation enhancements.
- Regulatory Guidance: Listings adjustments following new indications or label updates.
- Insurance Reimbursements: Variable co-pay structures can influence the effective price.
Estimated Future Price Trend (2023–2027)
| Year |
Estimated List Price (USD) |
Rationale |
| 2023 |
USD 8,400 |
Slight reduction due to increased competition and payer negotiations |
| 2024 |
USD 8,300 |
Confirmed market share, limited price inflation |
| 2025 |
USD 8,200 |
Stabilization expected; no major label changes anticipated |
| 2026 |
USD 8,150 |
Market saturation, slight downward pressure |
| 2027 |
USD 8,100 |
Competitive pressures persist, potential biosimilar or proxy entries unlikely |
Note: Actual prices outside the US may vary significantly based on local policies and patent protections.
Patent and Exclusivity Considerations
- Patents protecting Verzenio’s formulation and method of use are valid until 2032–2035.
- Patent expirations could enable biosimilar or generic entry, pressuring prices downward.
Market Entry of Biosimilars or Generics
- No biosimilar competitors currently approved.
- Generic manufacturing likely feasible post-patent expiry, potentially reducing prices by 40–60%, aligning with trends observed in similar oncology drugs.
Price Reduction Opportunities
- Biosimilar entry (~2029–2030) could decrease prices.
- Price adjustments driven by payer negotiations and formulary placements.
- US inflation and pharmacy discounts could influence net prices more than list prices.
Summary
NDC 83324-0109 (Verzenio) has experienced stable pricing around USD 8,900–USD 9,100 since launch. Market competition and patent protection influence future pricing, with a probable slight decline beginning in 2024. Significant price reductions depend on biosimilar entry post-2030.
Key Takeaways
- Verzenio remains a key player in HR-positive breast cancer treatment, with stable market share.
- List prices are projected to gradually decline from USD 8,400 in 2023 to about USD 8,100 by 2027.
- Patent expiry around 2032-2035 may introduce biosimilars, exerting downward pressure.
- Market competition with Ibrance and Kisqali constrains aggressive price increases.
- Future pricing depends heavily on payor negotiations, label updates, and generic entry timelines.
FAQs
1. How does Verzenio’s price compare to other CDK4/6 inhibitors?
Verzenio’s list price is approximately USD 8,500 per month, slightly higher than Ibrance and Kisqali. Actual patient costs vary due to rebates and insurance coverage.
2. What factors could accelerate Verzenio’s price reduction?
Entry of biosimilars post-2030 and increased formulary restrictions could significantly lower net prices.
3. Are there any upcoming patent expirations that could impact pricing?
Patent protections last until approximately 2032–2035; biosimilar development generally aligns with these timelines.
4. How does insurance coverage influence the effective patient price?
Insurance negotiations, copay assistance, and rebates can reduce out-of-pocket costs, making the list price less relevant for the end-user.
5. What are the primary drivers of market growth for Verzenio?
Increasing breast cancer prevalence, evolving treatment guidelines, and expanded indications sustain demand growth.
References
[1] American Cancer Society. (2022). Breast Cancer Facts & Figures 2022-2023.
[2] EvaluatePharma. (2022). Oncology Market Outlook 2022.
[3] U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2017). FDA approves Verzenio for HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.
[4] IQVIA. (2022). US Oncology Drug Spend Data.
