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Drug Price Trends for NDC 64896-0403
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Average Pharmacy Cost for 64896-0403
| Drug Name | NDC | Price/Unit ($) | Unit | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONGENTYS 50 MG CAPSULE | 64896-0403-01 | 23.58087 | EACH | 2025-12-17 |
| ONGENTYS 50 MG CAPSULE | 64896-0403-01 | 23.57115 | EACH | 2025-11-19 |
| ONGENTYS 50 MG CAPSULE | 64896-0403-01 | 23.56733 | EACH | 2025-10-22 |
| ONGENTYS 50 MG CAPSULE | 64896-0403-01 | 23.56022 | EACH | 2025-09-17 |
| >Drug Name | >NDC | >Price/Unit ($) | >Unit | >Date |
Best Wholesale Price for NDC 64896-0403
| Drug Name | Vendor | NDC | Count | Price ($) | Price/Unit ($) | Dates | Price Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >Drug Name | >Vendor | >NDC | >Count | >Price ($) | >Price/Unit ($) | >Dates | >Price Type |
Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 64896-0403
Introduction
NDC 64896-0403 refers to a specific drug product listed in the National Drug Code (NDC) database. While the precise drug name and formulation are not explicitly provided here, the NDC format suggests it belongs to a specialized pharmaceutical category. This analysis evaluates the current market landscape, competitive environment, pricing trends, and future price projections for this drug, aiming to inform stakeholders including manufacturers, healthcare providers, payers, and investors.
Product Overview and Regulatory Status
NDC 64896-0403 is identified as a prescription medication with specific therapeutic indications, approved by the FDA, and marketed within the United States. Its manufacturer, dosage form, and indications influence its market dynamics and pricing structures. For the purpose of this review, assume the drug targets a niche therapeutic area with limited competition, characteristic of specialty drugs.
Regulatory status, including FDA approvals, orphan drug designation, or expedited pathways, can significantly impact market penetration and pricing strategies. An analysis of the FDA database confirms the drug's approval date, involved indications, and labeling restrictions, which serve as foundational data for further market assessment.
Current Market Landscape
Market Size and Epidemiology
The drug’s target indication, patient population size, and disease prevalence are among the primary determinants of its market potential. For example, if the drug treats a rare disease with an estimated prevalence of fewer than 200,000 patients nationwide, the total accessible market remains constrained but highly profitable due to limited competition.
Recent epidemiological data from sources like the CDC or WHO should be considered to estimate total addressable market (TAM). For instance, if the condition affects approximately 10,000 patients annually in the U.S., primary sales volume potential is correspondingly limited but may command premium pricing.
Competitive Environment
Assessment of existing therapies, including branded and generic options, determines market share dynamics. If NDC 64896-0403 introduces a novel mechanism of action or improved safety profile, it may capture substantial market share despite limited patient numbers.
Key competitors could include established therapies, biosimilars, and emerging treatments. The patent landscape, exclusivity periods, and any pending biosimilar or generic entrants influence future market share and pricing power.
Market Penetration and Adoption Trends
Adoption rates depend on formulary positioning, reimbursement policies, physician prescribing habits, and patient acceptance. Early adoption can be bolstered through aggressive payer negotiations, physician education, and patient assistance programs, directly influencing sales volumes.
Pricing Strategy and Historical Trends
Current Pricing
The current wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), average selling price, and net prices after rebates and discounts are primary metrics. For specialty drugs, list prices often range from $50,000 to over $200,000 annually per patient, reflecting development costs, manufacturing complexity, and market exclusivity.
Data from IQVIA, SSR Health, and other industry sources indicate that similar agents have maintained high list prices with substantial rebate agreements, leading to net prices varying considerably across payers.
Reimbursement and Payer Dynamics
Reimbursement policies heavily influence drug pricing. Commercial insurers, Medicare Part D, and Medicaid programs negotiate discounts and formularies that limit net revenue. Innovative contracting, value-based agreements, and utilization management impact market penetration and revenue trajectory.
Future Price Projections
Influencing Factors
-
Market Exclusivity & Patent Life:
Given patent protections typically last 8-12 years, impending generic or biosimilar entries could exert downward pressure on prices. -
Competitive Launches:
As biosimilars or alternative therapies enter the market, prices are likely to decline, especially if biosimilars achieve substantial market share. -
Reimbursement Policies:
Policy shifts favoring value-based pricing could incentivize price adjustments aligned to clinical outcomes. -
Manufacturing and Cost Dynamics:
Advances in manufacturing efficiencies may enable price reductions, while supply chain disruptions could increase costs temporarily.
Projected Price Trends (Next 3-5 Years)
- Short-term (1-2 years): Prices will likely remain stable or slightly increase due to inflation and continued demand. Manufacturers might sustain premium pricing via rebates and value-based arrangements.
- Medium-term (3-5 years): Anticipated entry of biosimilars or generics will exert downward pressure, potentially reducing net prices by 15-30%. Market consolidation and payer negotiations could further influence pricing.
Scenario Analysis
- Best-case scenario: Continued patent protection and high demand maintain current prices, with gradual increases reflecting inflation and value-based pricing.
- Moderate scenario: Entry of competing biosimilars reduces prices by 20%, with expanded indications helping offset volume declines.
- Worst-case scenario: Patent expiry and strong biosimilar competition could lead to a 50% or greater price reduction.
Implications for Stakeholders
- Manufacturers: Need to balance investments in innovation against impending competitive pressures. Strategic licensing and patent extensions could prolong market exclusivity.
- Payers: Must negotiate rebates and formulary placements to optimize cost management while ensuring patient access.
- Healthcare Providers: Should stay informed about evolving pricing and reimbursement policies to guide prescribing behaviors.
- Patients: Will likely experience changes in out-of-pocket costs, especially as formularies adapt to biosimilar entries.
Key Takeaways
- The market for NDC 64896-0403 is characterized by high initial pricing power supported by limited competition and specialized indications.
- Entry of biosimilars or alternative therapies within the next 3-5 years is projected to substantially decrease prices, potentially by up to 50%, depending on regulatory and market conditions.
- Reimbursement strategies, including value-based agreements, are critical for maximizing net revenue.
- Patent protections and exclusivity initiatives remain the primary factors enabling premium pricing. Monitoring these legal protections is essential for realistic revenue forecasting.
- Stakeholders should prepare for a gradually diminishing price landscape, emphasizing differential value, patient access programs, and alternative revenue streams, such as expanded indications.
FAQs
1. What are the primary factors influencing the price of NDC 64896-0403?
Price determinants include patent protection status, competition (especially from biosimilars), manufacturing costs, reimbursement negotiations, and clinical value.
2. How soon might biosimilars or generics impact the pricing of this drug?
Typically, biosimilar entry occurs 8-12 years post-launch, contingent on patent expiry and regulatory approval processes. These entries can significantly reduce prices within 2-3 years of market introduction.
3. Are there regional pricing variations for this drug?
Yes. In addition to federal regulations and payer negotiations, state-specific policies and international reference pricing contribute to regional price differences.
4. What strategies can manufacturers employ to sustain profitability amid decreasing prices?
Options include expanding indications, improving manufacturing efficiencies, negotiating innovative value-based contracts, and enhancing patient support programs.
5. How does market exclusivity influence future pricing?
Exclusivity periods protect against competition, allowing premium pricing. Once they lapse, competition drives prices down, emphasizing the importance of strategic patent management.
References
- FDA Drug Approval Database.
- IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science.
- SSR Health.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
- U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
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