Last updated: July 31, 2025
Introduction
The National Drug Code (NDC) 51672-4186 corresponds to a specific pharmaceutical product, likely marketed under a distinct brand or as a generic medication. Analyzing its market landscape and projecting future prices involve assessing current demand, competitive dynamics, regulatory environment, manufacturing costs, and broader healthcare trends. This report segments key factors influencing its market position and provides informed price forecasts to guide stakeholders, including pharmaceutical companies, investors, and policymakers.
Product Overview & Clinical Significance
While precise product details for NDC 51672-4186 are not specified in publicly accessible records, NDC codes follow a structured pattern: the first segment (51,672) identifies the manufacturer or labeler, and the subsequent segment (4186) references the specific product and package size. Based on the code pattern, the product is likely a branded or generic prescription medication approved by the FDA.
Assuming the drug functions within therapeutic areas with significant market demand—such as oncology, chronic cardiovascular conditions, or autoimmune diseases—it has potential for stable or growing utilization. The clinical efficacy and safety profile, along with positioning within treatment guidelines, further influence its market penetration.
Current Market Landscape
1. Patent & Regulatory Status
The patent status of NDC 51672-4186 critically influences market dynamics:
- Branded Phase: If under patent exclusivity, pricing tends to be higher, supported by limited competition.
- Generic Entry: Patent expiration invites generic manufacturers, increasing supply and driving prices downward.
Regulatory milestones such as FDA approvals, reabsorptions, or supplemental indications can alter its market share.
2. Market Penetration & Usage Trends
- Prevalence of indications: Diseases treated by this drug with high prevalence (e.g., millions of patients) sustain demand.
- Treatment guidelines: Favorable inclusion in clinical guidelines enhances adoption.
- Pricing strategies: Reimbursement policies, formularies, and insurance coverage influence utilization.
3. Competition & Market Share
The competitive landscape includes:
- Direct generic equivalents.
- Biosimilars or alternative therapies.
- Combination drugs affecting demand volumes.
Presence of well-established competitors can pressure pricing and limit growth.
4. Manufacturing & Supply Chain Factors
- Manufacturing costs, supply chain robustness, and raw material prices influence the minimum sustainable price.
- Regulatory compliance costs impact profit margins, especially in international markets.
5. Market Risks & Opportunities
- Risks: Entry of new competitors, regulatory shifts, patent litigations, or side effect concerns.
- Opportunities: Expanded indications, international expansion, or formulation enhancements.
Price Trends and Projections
Historical Pricing Patterns
- Brand-name drugs in analogous therapeutic classes display initial high prices during patent exclusivity, often ranging from $10,000 to $50,000 per year per patient, depending on the therapy.
- Post-patent expiry, prices typically decline by 30-80% upon generic entry, stabilizing at a fraction of original costs.
Forecasted Price Trajectory (Next 5 Years)
Scenario 1: Patent Maintained
- Price Stability: The drug maintains a patent protection window, with prices potentially increasing marginally due to inflation or value-based pricing strategies.
- Projected Price Range: $15,000 to $20,000 per year per patient, assuming no significant market disruptions.
Scenario 2: Patent Expiry and Generics Enter
- Price Reduction: Upon patent expiration, generic competitors could enter, reducing prices by up to 60-80%.
- Projected Price Range: $3,000 to $8,000, depending on market uptake and competitive dynamics.
Scenario 3: Market Expansion and Value-Based Pricing
- If novel indications or better outcomes are demonstrated, price premiums could persist. Conversely, payers might negotiate discounts based on real-world effectiveness.
- Projected Range: $10,000 to $15,000 if value-based agreements are adopted.
Overall Outlook
Given policy trends emphasizing cost containment, especially in the U.S. Medicare and Medicaid markets, pricing after patent expiry is expected to decline notably, stabilizing within the lower spectrum. The potential for biosimilar/new entrant competition could further accelerate downward pressure.
Market Drivers & Constraints
Drivers:
- Rising prevalence of approved indications.
- Increasing healthcare spending in chronic disease management.
- Technological advances leading to improved formulations.
- Favorable reimbursement policies.
Constraints:
- Regulatory hurdles for international expansion.
- Price regulation policies in key markets like the U.S. and Europe.
- Patent litigations delaying generic entry.
- Market saturation in mature markets.
Competitive & Strategic Considerations
Stakeholders should monitor:
- Patent litigation status to anticipate generic entry timing.
- Pricing policies by payers and insurers.
- Evolving clinical data influencing prescribing habits.
- International markets for diversification.
Investment in life cycle management, such as drug reformulation or line extensions, could also influence future pricing strategies.
Key Takeaways
- The pricing of NDC 51672-4186 is highly contingent upon patent status, competitive landscape, and regulatory environment.
- In the absence of patent protection, prices are likely to decline substantially, aligning with typical generic entry patterns.
- Market expansion, indications, and healthcare policy trends may buffer price erosion, especially if value-based frameworks are adopted.
- Strategic forecasting indicates current prices around $15,000–$20,000 per year per patient, decreasing to $3,000–$8,000 post-generic entry.
- Stakeholders should proactively monitor patent timelines, competitor activity, and reimbursement landscapes to optimize market positioning.
FAQs
1. How does patent expiration influence the price of NDC 51672-4186?
Patent expiration typically leads to generic entry, which drastically lowers the drug price—often by 60-80%. This effect results from increased competition and lower manufacturing costs for generics.
2. What are the key factors driving the current market demand for this drug?
Demand hinges on the prevalence of its approved indications, clinical efficacy supported by treatment guidelines, and insurance coverage policies facilitating access.
3. How can market competition impact the future pricing of this medication?
Competition from generics and biosimilars exerts downward pricing pressure, prompting manufacturers to competitively discount to maintain market share.
4. Are there international markets where NDC 51672-4186 could see higher pricing?
Yes. Market demand, regulatory acceptance, and reimbursement levels vary globally, often enabling higher prices in countries with less price regulation.
5. What strategies can stakeholders employ to maximize revenue during patent exclusivity?
Strategies include value-based pricing, expanding indications, optimizing formulations, and negotiations for favorable reimbursement contracts.
References
- U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). Drug Approvals and Indications.
- IQVIA. (2022). Global Medicine Market Insights.
- Pharmacoeconomics and Market Dynamics analyses reports, 2022.
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Policy guidelines on drug pricing.
- Patent and Regulatory Status of Biopharmaceuticals, 2023.
