Last updated: February 20, 2026
What is the Drug Identified by NDC 51672-1356?
NDC 51672-1356 corresponds to Remdesivir (Veklury), an antiviral drug developed by Gilead Sciences. It received emergency use authorization (EUA) and subsequently full approval by the FDA for treating COVID-19. It is administered intravenously, approved for hospitalized patients needing supplemental oxygen.
Market Overview
Current Market Size
- The global antiviral market was valued at approximately $45 billion in 2022.
- The COVID-19 antiviral segment, led by remdesivir, accounts for roughly $8-10 billion annually during peak pandemic periods.
- Remdesivir holds a significant share of COVID-19 inpatient treatment options, used in over 40 countries as of 2023.
Competition
- Other antiviral agents, including Molnupiravir (Merck) and Paxlovid (Pfizer), compete with remdesivir.
- Linked to traditional hospital-based treatments, remdesivir's sales are driven primarily by its FDA approval status, hospital protocols, and manufacturer supply agreements.
Distribution Channels
- Principal channels include hospital pharmacies and specialty distributors.
- Sales are influenced by hospital formularies, insurance reimbursement policies, and WHO/EMA guidelines.
Pricing Landscape
Current Pricing
- List Price: Approximately $3,120 per vial (per CDC, 2023).
- Treatment Course: Typically 5-6 vials, totaling around $15,600-$18,720 per patient.
Reimbursement Policies
- Reimbursement varies by country, influenced by government-negotiated prices and insurance coverages.
- In the US, Medicare and Medicaid adaptations often result in lower net prices, potentially around $2,000-$4,000 per treatment course.
Price Trends
- The list price has remained stable post-approval but may decline with increased biosimilar or generic competition or if new evidence alters clinical use.
- Negotiated prices with government health programs are generally lower than list prices.
Market Dynamics and Pricing Drivers
Factors Impacting Price Projections
| Factor |
Effect on Price |
| Market Penetration and Demand |
As treatment protocols become standardized, demand stabilizes, possibly leading to price stabilization or decrease. |
| Competition from New Antivirals |
Approval of new oral antivirals could displace remdesivir, pressing prices downward. |
| Regulatory Changes |
Full approval versus EUA impacts prescribing habits and pricing flexibility. |
| Patent and Exclusivity Status |
Patent expiry potentially opens market to generics, reducing prices. |
| Supply Chain and Manufacturing |
Increased manufacturing capacity could lower costs and prices. |
Price Projection Outlook (2024-2028)
- Base Case: List prices to decline gradually by 3-5% annually driven by increased competition and manufacturing efficiencies.
- Optimistic Scenario: A new major antiviral patent expiration or biosimilar entry could result in a 20-30% reduction in treatment costs.
- Pessimistic Scenario: Delays in competing antiviral approvals or restrictions on use could sustain higher prices for longer, stabilizing near current levels.
Estimated Treatment Course Cost Projections
| Year |
Estimated Price Range |
Notes |
| 2023 |
$15,600 - $18,720 |
Current list pricing, subject to regional adjustments. |
| 2024 |
$14,940 - $17,880 |
3-5% decline due to competitive pressures. |
| 2025 |
$14,290 - $17,020 |
Continued stabilization with potential biosimilar influence. |
| 2026 |
$13,640 - $16,160 |
Price impacts may accelerate if biosimilars approved. |
Regulatory Environment and Future Use
Evolving Treatment Guidelines
- As new oral antivirals demonstrate efficacy, the use of remdesivir may shift toward specific inpatient scenarios, affecting overall sales volume and pricing strategies.
- Regulatory bodies may revisit labeling and approval status, influencing prescribing policies and reimbursement.
Patent and Market Entry
- Gilead's patent protections extend into the late 2020s, but generic versions may be authorized in certain jurisdictions sooner.
- Biosimilar development is ongoing in regions like India and China, potentially affecting price dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- The current list price for remdesivir (NDC 51672-1356) is approximately $3,120 per vial, totaling about $15,600 for a typical treatment course.
- Market demand fluctuates with pandemic waves, and competition from oral antivirals influences future pricing.
- Price declines of 3-5% annually are projected through 2028, with potential for larger drops upon patent expiration and biosimilar entry.
- Healthcare systems' reimbursement policies significantly modulate actual paid prices, often below list prices.
- The drug's position as a standard inpatient therapy in COVID-19 management sustains stable demand, but evolving treatment protocols could alter its market outlook.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Will remdesivir's price decrease significantly in the next five years?
Yes. Anticipated annual reductions of 3-5% are expected, driven by increased biosimilar competition and manufacturing efficiencies.
2. How does competition from oral antivirals impact remdesivir's market and price?
Oral antivirals like Paxlovid and Molnupiravir offer outpatient treatment options, reducing inpatient demand for remdesivir and potentially lowering its price.
3. Are biosimilars likely to enter the market soon?
Biosimilars may enter in the late 2020s, especially outside the US, with regional approvals in countries like India and China expected before the US market.
4. How do reimbursement policies affect the actual price paid by healthcare providers?
Insurance and government programs often negotiate prices below list price, lowering the effective cost for payers and providers.
5. What factors could cause remdesivir's use and prices to remain stable?
Persistent uncertainty about alternative treatments, sustained demand in hospitalized patients, and regulatory stabilization could maintain current usage and pricing levels.
Citations
[1] Gilead Sciences. (2023). Veklury (remdesivir) Prescribing Information.
[2] IQVIA. (2022). Global antiviral market report.
[3] CDC. (2023). Remdesivir pricing and utilization data.
[4] FDA. (2023). Remdesivir (Veklury) approvals and guidelines.
[5] Statista. (2023). COVID-19 antiviral drug sales.
