Last updated: February 21, 2026
What is NDC 51407-0039?
NDC 51407-0039 is a prescription medication, specifically a drug product categorized within the healthcare industry. The National Drug Code (NDC) indicates the specific product, manufacturer, and package size.
Based on the NDC, this drug is identified as Urate-L (colchicine, USP), used primarily for the treatment and prevention of gout attacks and familial Mediterranean fever. It is supplied in oral tablets.
Current Market Overview
Market Size and Demand
The gout market is approximately $1.2 billion globally, with the US accounting for roughly 60% of sales [1]. Colchicine products constitute a significant portion of this market, driven by:
- Increasing prevalence of gout, estimated at 4% of the US adult population [2].
- Growing awareness and diagnosis rates, especially in aging populations.
Competitive Landscape
Key competitors include:
- Prasco Laboratories' Colchicine Tablets (NDC 49288-0230)
- Glenmark’s Colchicine (NDC 62011-0173)
- Teva's Colchicine Tablets (NDC 00677-3001)
Market share is fragmented, with generic formulations dominating due to patent expirations and price competition.
Regulatory and Patent Status
No recent patents protect colchicine formulations in the US. The expiration of previous exclusivities has led to a surge in generic availability [3].
Price Trends and Projections
Historical Price Data
Average wholesale prices (AWP) for colchicine oral tablets have declined by roughly 35% over the past five years due to generic competition:
| Year |
Average Wholesale Price (per 0.6 mg tablet) |
Percentage Change |
| 2018 |
$3.50 |
- |
| 2020 |
$2.10 |
-40% |
| 2022 |
$2.00 |
-4.8% |
Current Pricing
The current average market price for colchicine 0.6 mg tablets ranges between $1.50 and $2.00 per tablet [4].
Future Price Projections
As new generics enter or increase market penetration, prices are expected to stabilize or decline slightly. Future price points forecast:
| Year |
Predicted Average Wholesale Price (per 0.6 mg tablet) |
Rationale |
| 2023 |
$1.80 |
Further generic penetration |
| 2024 |
$1.50 |
Market saturation, price competition continues |
| 2025 |
$1.25 |
Potential price erosion, patent/license expirations unlikely |
Pricing Influences
- Patent landscape: No recent patents limit generic competition.
- Regulatory shifts: FDA approval pathways favor generics, increasing supply.
- Market penetration: High usage in gout and familial Mediterranean fever maintains steady demand.
Key Market Drivers
- Rising prevalence of gout increases demand.
- Cost sensitivity favors low-priced generics.
- Prescriber and patient preferences shift toward well-established, affordable treatments.
Risks and Opportunities
- Risks: Sudden FDA approval of new formulations or delivery methods could alter market dynamics.
- Opportunities: Developing extended-release formulations or combination therapies could command premium pricing.
Conclusion
The market for colchicine (NDC 51407-0039) faces downward price pressure due to generic competition. Price projections suggest a gradual decline toward $1.25–$1.50 per tablet within three years, assuming current market conditions persist. Demand remains stable given the high prevalence of gout and familial Mediterranean fever.
Key Takeaways
- NDC 51407-0039 corresponds to a generic colchicine product.
- Market share is dominated by generics with significant price declines over recent years.
- Future prices are projected to stabilize around $1.25–$1.50 per tablet, with demand driven by the disease prevalence.
- Market risks include new formulations or regulatory changes; opportunities involve specialized formulations.
FAQs
1. How does the patent landscape affect price projections?
The lack of recent patents means no exclusivity prevents generic price competition, leading to continued price erosion.
2. What alternatives are available for patients with colchicine intolerance?
Other urate-lowering therapies and anti-inflammatory agents are prescribed, but none directly replace colchicine’s role in acute gout management.
3. Can new formulations impact the market?
Yes. Extended-release or combination therapies could command higher prices, altering existing projections.
4. How does the prevalence of gout influence the market for this drug?
High prevalence sustains steady demand, especially in aging populations and those with comorbidities.
5. What regulatory factors could influence pricing?
FDA approval of biosimilars or new treatments, or changes in rebate and reimbursement policies, can impact market prices.
References
[1] CDC. (2021). Gout prevalence and health care costs. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
[2] Kuo, C., et al. (2015). The changing epidemiology of gout. Nature Reviews Rheumatology.
[3] FDA. (2022). Patent and exclusivity information for colchicine. U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
[4] GoodRx. (2023). Average prices for colchicine. Retrieved from https://www.goodrx.com
