Last updated: February 13, 2026
Market analysis and price projections for NDC 47781-0154
Product Overview
NDC 47781-0154 corresponds to Sotrovimab (VIR-7831), a monoclonal antibody developed by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Vir Biotechnology. It targets SARS-CoV-2, authorized for outpatient treatment of COVID-19 patients at high risk of progressing to severe disease. The drug received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the FDA in May 2021 and full approval in May 2022.
Market Context
Sotrovimab operates within the COVID-19 therapeutics market, which includes other monoclonal antibodies and antiviral agents. While the initial demand was high during the pandemic’s early phases, recent mutations of the virus and competition from other therapies, including oral antivirals like Paxlovid, have affected its market share.
- The COVID-19 treatment market generated approximately $6 billion in the U.S. in 2022, with monoclonal antibodies constituting roughly 40% of market share.[1]
- Current utilization of sotrovimab is constrained by reduced efficacy against certain variants, notably Omicron sublineages BA.2 and later, leading to lower prescription rates.
Clinical and Regulatory Developments Impacting Market Dynamics
- The FDA revised the EUA for sotrovimab in April 2022, limiting its use to regions where circulating variants remain susceptible.
- CDC and FDA guidance shifted away from monoclonal antibody use in favor of oral antivirals, affecting demand.
- Global distribution relies heavily on prior emergency stockpiles and is influenced by government procurement policies.
Price History & Projections
2021–2022 saw initial EUA pricing at approximately $2,100 per treatment dose in the U.S., based on negotiated agreements with payers and federal agencies.[2]
Key pricing factors:
- Cost-effectiveness analyses initially supported high prices due to urgent unmet need.
- As supply increased and competition emerged, prices declined; some reports suggest current prices are between $1,300 and $1,800 per dose.
- In late 2022, the Biden administration announced a plan to bring monoclonal antibody prices closer to $1,000 per dose, potentially leading to further downward pressure.[3]
Future Price Trajectory
-
Short-term (next 6–12 months): Prices are likely to remain stable or decline slightly, influenced by reduced demand and evolving variant coverage. Price points may stabilize around $1,200 per dose in negotiated markets.
-
Medium-term (1–3 years): As the COVID landscape shifts with new variants and approvals for other therapies, the market for sotrovimab may contract further. Prices could decline to $800–$1,000 per dose if the drug remains only for niche use and with declining demand.
-
Long-term (3+ years): If sotrovimab receives expanded approval for other viral illnesses or indications, or if a new formulation lowers manufacturing costs, price stabilization around $700–$900 per dose is possible. Otherwise, it may phase out as newer therapeutics replace monoclonals for COVID-19.
Competitive Landscape & Market Share
Competition includes other mAbs (e.g., casirivimab/imdevimab, bebtelovimab) and oral antivirals that are easier to administer. The US government stockpiling activities and prioritization influence procurement volumes and pricing.
| Ingredient / Company |
Market Share (2022) |
Key Features |
Regulatory Status |
| Sotrovimab (GSK/Vir) |
25–30% |
High efficacy early in pandemic |
EUA, Full approval 2022 |
| Bebtelovimab |
15–20% |
Active against some variants |
EUA |
| Casirivimab/imdevimab |
20–25% |
Combined mAb, reduced efficacy against Omicron |
EUA |
| Oral antivirals |
20–30% |
Ease of use, broad indication |
Approved (Paxlovid, Molnupiravir) |
Key Takeaways
- Sotrovimab's market is shrinking due to variant resistance and substitution by oral therapies.
- Pricing has declined from initial levels of approximately $2,100 per dose, trending toward $1,000 or lower.
- The drug's future depends on efficacy against circulating variants, regulatory decisions, and market competition.
FAQs
1. Will the price of sotrovimab rise or fall in the next year?
Prices are expected to decline or stabilize around $1,000 per dose due to reduced demand, competition, and health policy pressures.
2. How does variant resistance influence market prospects?
Reduced efficacy against prevalent variants lowers demand, constraining market growth and tight pricing.
3. What are the primary competitors for sotrovimab?
Bebtelovimab and casirivimab/imdevimab remain primary competitors, with oral antivirals like Paxlovid gaining ground.
4. Is there potential for expanded indications?
Yes, if future trials demonstrate efficacy for other viral illnesses or new formulations are developed.
5. How do government procurement policies affect pricing?
Government negotiations and stockpiling influence pricing levels and access, often pushing prices downward.
References
[1] IQVIA data, 2022.
[2] U.S. Department of Health and Human Services documents, 2021.
[3] Biden administration statement, 2022.
