Last updated: February 23, 2026
What Is the Drug NDC 00904-6407?
NDC 00904-6407 corresponds to Emtricitabine and Tenofovir Alafenamide, marketed under the brand name Descovy. It is an antiretroviral medication approved for HIV-1 treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).
Market Size and Adoption
Current Market Landscape
- Global HIV Drug Market Size (2022): Estimated at $8.4 billion, projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% through 2027 (Grand View Research).
- Market Share of Descovy: Dominates with roughly 15% of the oral HIV therapy segment, competing primarily against Truvada (emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate).
- Prescriptions (US, 2022): Approximately 600,000 patients used Descovy, a 25% increase over 2021 (IQVIA).
Competitive Position
- Descovy benefits from a more favorable safety profile compared to Truvada, especially regarding renal and bone health.
- The medication's approved indications include both HIV treatment and PrEP, expanding its market reach.
Key Market Drivers
- Growing awareness about HIV prevention.
- Increased emphasis on outpatient management.
- Expanded indications, including potential use for other viral infections.
Price Analysis: Current Pricing Landscape
US Pricing
- Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC): Approximately $2,200 for a 30-day supply.
- Average Bulk Acquisition Cost: Around $2,050.
- Patient Out-of-Pocket (OOP): Varies from $0 (insured) to approximately $150 depending on insurance plans and assistance programs.
International Pricing
- Canada: List prices range from $1,900 to $2,300 annually.
- European Union: Prices per pack vary widely by country, generally comparable to US WAC but often lower due to healthcare system negotiations.
Price Trends Over Time
- From 2020 to 2022, US prices for Descovy have remained stable with minor fluctuations (~2-3%) linked to supply chain factors and formulary negotiations.
- Price reductions are observed in government tender markets (e.g., VA, Medicaid), often resulting in discounts of 20-30%.
Future Price Projections
Market Dynamics
- Patent expiration for Descovy is not imminent; it is protected until at least 2030.
- Introduction of biosimilars or generics remains unlikely until patent expiry.
- Pricing pressure could emerge from formulary negotiations, especially as new therapies enter the market.
Price Adjustment Drivers
- Improved competitive landscape through new drug approvals.
- Cost reductions driven by manufacturing efficiencies.
- Policy shifts favoring lower drug prices.
Estimated Price Trajectory (2023–2027)
| Year |
US Average Wholesale Price (AWP) |
Expected Trend |
| 2023 |
$2,200 |
Stable; minor fluctuations |
| 2024 |
$2,150–$2,250 |
Slight decrease possible |
| 2025 |
$2,100–$2,200 |
Price stabilization |
| 2026 |
$2,050–$2,150 |
Potential pressure downward |
| 2027 |
$2,000–$2,100 |
Possible reductions if generics develop |
Potential Impact of Biosimilar Competition
- Biosimilar development is unlikely, but if it occurs, prices could decline by 30–40% within a 2–3-year window post-launch.
Financial Outlook and Investment Implications
- Revenue growth is expected to slow as market penetration matures.
- Price stability minimizes risk for manufacturers; however, negotiations and policy pressures could alter profitability margins.
- Generic and biosimilar entry remains the primary risk to price erosion.
Summary Table of Market and Price Data
| Attribute |
Data Points |
Source |
| Market Size (Global HIV drug market, 2022) |
$8.4 billion |
[1] |
| % Market Share (Descovy, HIV therapy segment) |
15% |
IQVIA (2022) |
| US Prescriptions (2022) |
600,000 |
IQVIA |
| US WAC per 30-day supply |
$2,200 |
Manufacturer data |
| Price trend (2020–2022) |
+2–3% fluctuation |
Market reports |
| Patent protection until |
2030 |
FDA records |
Key Takeaways
- Descovy operates in a stable, growing HIV market with increasing adoption.
- Current US wholesale prices hover around $2,200 per month; international prices are comparable.
- Prices are expected to remain stable through 2025, with potential for gradual decline due to competitive pressures or policy changes.
- Patent protections extend until 2030, delaying generic entry.
FAQs
1. When will generic versions of Descovy become available?
Patent expiration is expected around 2030, after which generic development can proceed.
2. How does the price of Descovy compare internationally?
International prices are generally within 10–20% of US WAC, with variations based on healthcare system negotiations.
3. What factors could cause Descovy prices to drop before patent expiry?
Formulary negotiations, increased competition from new drugs, and policy initiatives aimed at reducing drug costs.
4. How do biosimilars impact the current market?
Since Descovy is a small molecule combination rather than a biologic, biosimilars are not applicable. Generic versions are the primary alternative after patent expiry.
5. Are there any upcoming regulatory changes affecting pricing?
Potential changes include increased transparency measures and negotiation capabilities in the US, especially under Medicare Part D and Medicaid.
References
[1] Grand View Research. (2022). HIV Drugs Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report.
