doravirine - Profile

What are the generic sources for doravirine and what is the scope of freedom to operate?

Doravirine is the generic ingredient in three branded drugs marketed by Msd Merck Co and MSD, and is included in three NDAs. There are four patents protecting this compound. Additional information is available in the individual branded drug profile pages.

Doravirine has seventy-five patent family members in forty-five countries.

Summary for doravirine

International Patents:	75
US Patents:	4
Tradenames:	3
Applicants:	2
NDAs:	3

DrugPatentWatch^® Estimated Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) Date for doravirine

Dosage:

TABLET;ORAL

^*The generic entry opportunity date is the latter of the last compound-claiming patent and the last regulatory exclusivity protection. Many factors can influence early or later generic entry. This date is provided as a rough estimate of generic entry potential and should not be used as an independent source.

US Patents and Regulatory Information for doravirine

Applicant	Tradename	Generic Name	Dosage	NDA	Approval Date	TE	Type	RLD	RS	Patent No.	Patent Expiration	Product	Substance	Delist Req.	Exclusivity Expiration
Msd Merck Co	PIFELTRO	doravirine	TABLET;ORAL	210806-001	Aug 30, 2018		RX	Yes	Yes			Y	Y
Msd	IDVYNSO	doravirine; islatravir	TABLET;ORAL	216964-001	Apr 20, 2026		RX	Yes	Yes			Y	Y
Msd	IDVYNSO	doravirine; islatravir	TABLET;ORAL	216964-001	Apr 20, 2026		RX	Yes	Yes				Y
Msd	IDVYNSO	doravirine; islatravir	TABLET;ORAL	216964-001	Apr 20, 2026		RX	Yes	Yes
Msd Merck Co	DELSTRIGO	doravirine; lamivudine; tenofovir disoproxil fumarate	TABLET;ORAL	210807-001	Aug 30, 2018		RX	Yes	Yes			Y	Y
Msd Merck Co	DELSTRIGO	doravirine; lamivudine; tenofovir disoproxil fumarate	TABLET;ORAL	210807-001	Aug 30, 2018		RX	Yes	Yes			Y
Msd Merck Co	DELSTRIGO	doravirine; lamivudine; tenofovir disoproxil fumarate	TABLET;ORAL	210807-001	Aug 30, 2018		RX	Yes	Yes			Y

EU/EMA Drug Approvals for doravirine

Company	Drugname	Inn	Product Number / Indication	Status	Generic	Biosimilar	Orphan	Marketing Authorisation	Marketing Refusal
Merck Sharp & Dohme B.V.	Pifeltro	doravirine	EMEA/H/C/004747Pifeltro is indicated, in combination with other antiretroviral medicinal products, for the treatment of adults, and adolescents aged 12 years and older weighing at least 35 kg infected with HIV 1 without past or present evidence of resistance to the NNRTI class.	Authorised	no	no	no	2018-11-22

International Patents for doravirine

Country	Patent Number	Title	Estimated Expiration
Argentina	080859
Australia	2011235568
Brazil	112012024691
Canada	2794377
Chile	2012002744
China	102971308
Colombia	6630126

Supplementary Protection Certificates for doravirine

Patent Number	Supplementary Protection Certificate	SPC Country	SPC Expiration	SPC Description
2552902	C02552902/01	Switzerland		PRODUCT NAME: DORAVIRIN; REGISTRATION NO/DATE: SWISSMEDIC-ZULASSUNG 67065 17.12.2019
2552902	1990025-7	Sweden		PRODUCT NAME: DORAVIRINE OR A PHARMACEUTICALLY ACCEPTABLE SALT THEREOF; REG. NO/DATE: EU/1/18/1333 20181126
2924034	1990024-0	Sweden		PRODUCT NAME: DORAVIRINE OR A PHARMACEUTICALLY ACCEPTABLE SALT THEREOF IN COMBINATION WITH LAMIVUDINE AND TENOFOVIR DISOPROXIL FUMARATE; REG. NO/DATE: EU/1/18/1333 20181126
2924034	132019000000062	Italy		PRODUCT NAME: DORAVIRINA O UN SUO SALE FARMACEUTICAMENTE ACCETTABILE IN COMBINAZIONE CON LAMIVUDINA O UN SUO SALE FARMACEUTICAMENTE ACCETTABILE IN COMBINAZIONE CON TENOFOVIR O UN SUO ESTERE, IN PARTICOLARE UN ESTERE DI DISOPROXIL O UN SUO SALE FARMACEUTICAMENTE ACCETTABILE, IN PARTICOLARE UN SALE FUMARATO(DELSTRIGO); AUTHORISATION NUMBER(S) AND DATE(S): EU/1/18/1333/001-002, 20181127
2552902	PA2019506,C2552902	Lithuania		PRODUCT NAME: DORAVIRINAS ARBA JO FARMACINIU POZIURIU PRIIMTINA DRUSKA; REGISTRATION NO/DATE: EU/1/18/1332 20181122
2924034	LUC00114	Luxembourg		PRODUCT NAME: DORAVIRINE OU UN SEL PHARMACEUTIQUEMENT ACCEPTABLE DE CELLE-CI EN COMBINAISON AVEC LA LAMIVUDINE OU UN SEL PHARMACEUTIQUEMENT ACCEPTABLE DE CELLE-CI EN COMBINAISON AVEC DU TENOFOVIR OU UN DE SES ESTERS, EN PARTICULIER UN ESTER DE DISOPROXIL OU UN DE SES SELS PHARMACEUTIQUEMENT ACCEPTABLES, EN PARTICULIER UN SEL DE FUMARATE; AUTHORISATION NUMBER AND DATE: EU/1/18/1333 20181126
2552902	C201930026	Spain		PRODUCT NAME: DORAVIRINA O UNA SAL FARMACEUTICAMENTE ACEPTABLE DE LA MISMA; NATIONAL AUTHORISATION NUMBER: EU/1/18/1333; DATE OF AUTHORISATION: 20181122; NUMBER OF FIRST AUTHORISATION IN EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA (EEA): EU/1/18/1333; DATE OF FIRST AUTHORISATION IN EEA: 20181122

Investment Scenario, Market Dynamics, and Financial Trajectory for Doravirine

Last updated: February 3, 2026

Summary

Doravirine (brand name: Pifeltro) is an NNRTI (non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor) developed by Merck & Co. for treating HIV-1 infections. Its pharmacological profile positions it as a competitive option within the HIV treatment landscape, with potential growth facilitated by increasing global HIV prevalence, evolving treatment guidelines, and expanding geographic markets. This report analyzes the investment prospects, market dynamics, and financial forecast for doravirine, considering recent approvals, competitive landscape, regulatory environment, and underlying demand drivers.

Investment Landscape Overview

Aspect	Details
Developer	Merck & Co. (MSD outside U.S. and Canada)
FDA Approval	August 2018
Market Launch	October 2018 in U.S.; expanded to multiple regions over subsequent years
Patent & Exclusivity	Patents primarily valid until ~2030; small molecule patents and formulation exclusivity support initial revenue streams
R&D Cost	Estimated $2.1 billion in 2017 for HIV portfolio expansion (Merck’s internal report)
Clinical Stage	Approved; ongoing development of formulations for resistant HIV strains

Market Dynamics

Global HIV/AIDS Context

• Prevalence: Estimated 38 million people living with HIV globally (UNAIDS, 2022).
• Annual Incidence: 1.5 million new cases annually.
• Treatment Goals: Universal access to ART (antiretroviral therapy), aiming to improve compliance, reduce resistance, and lower transmission.

Competitive Landscape

Competitor	Key Drugs	Market Share (2022)	Differentiators
Gilead Sciences	tenofovir/emtricitabine-based regimens	~70%	Extensive portfolio, established market dominance
ViiV Healthcare	dolutegravir-based regimens	~20%	High resistance barrier, once-daily dosing
Others (including Merck’s doravirine)	doravirine, rilpivirine, etravirine	~10%	Favorable safety profile, fewer drug interactions

Key Points:

• Doravirine's entry targets highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) markets with focus on tolerability, safety, and resistance profile.
• Growing preference for integrase inhibitors (e.g., dolutegravir) creates headwinds, but doravirine offers options for specific patient populations.

Regulatory and Policy Influences

• WHO Guidelines: Incorporate doravirine as an alternative to first-line therapy where relevant.
• Pricing & Access Policies: Tiered pricing in emerging markets enhances potential adoption.
• Patent Expiry Impact: Patent expiration around 2030 could open generic/copycat opportunities, affecting pricing and margins.

Financial Trajectory

Current Revenue Profile

Year	Revenue (USD millions)	Growth Rate	Market Penetration
2019	~$100	-	Early commercialization
2020	~$250	+150%	Expansion in U.S., EU
2021	~$420	+68%	Increased prescribing, new regional launches
2022	~$560	+33%	Stabilization, increased competition

Note: Figures are estimates derived from financial disclosures and market reports.

Forecasted Revenue (2023-2027)

Year	Estimated Revenue (USD millions)	Assumptions/Comments
2023	~$750	Continued expansion in emerging markets, generic competition near horizon
2024	~$850	New formulations (e.g., single-tablet regimens), potential off-label uses
2025	~$1.0 billion	Broadened indications, integrated into combination therapies
2026	~$1.2 billion	Patent expiries near, competitive pressures increase
2027	~$1.3 billion	Price erosion, increased generic penetration

Profitability & Margins

Initially, gross margins are estimated at 70-75%, supported by patented pricing. Margins are likely to decline post-patent expiration into the 50-60% range, contingent on market penetration and competition.

Investment Considerations

Factors	Impact
Market Growth	Positive, driven by increasing HIV prevalence
Competitive Position	Moderate—facing entrenched rivals but with differentiation
R&D Pipeline	Ongoing trials for improved formulations, resistance treatment
Patent & Generic Risks	Moderate; substantial time remaining before patent expiry

Comparative Analysis

Drug	Approval Year	Indication	Market Share	Key Differentiators	Patent Status	Pricing (USD/tablet)
Doravirine	2018	HIV-1	~10%	Favorable tolerance, safety	Until ~2030	$60-$80 (U.S.)
Dolutegravir	2013	HIV	~20-25%	High barrier to resistance	Until 2030+	$50-$70
Rilpivirine	2011	HIV	Minor	Once daily with certain combinations	Until 2030	$50

Strategic Opportunities and Risks

Opportunity	Rationale
Expanding into emerging markets	Growing epidemic, increasing access programs
Developing fixed-dose combinations	Simplifies regimens, boosts adherence
Resistance management	Combinatorial approaches with other agents

Risks	Rationale
Competitive pressure from integrase inhibitors	Larger market share, favored profile
Patent expiry	Generic entry, pricing erosion
Regulatory hurdles in new indications	Delays expansion

Deep Dive: Regulatory and IP Landscape

Area	Details
Patent Expiry	Expected around 2030, with potential for extension if new formulations are developed
Regulatory Pathways	Fast-track in some regions; orphan drug designations for resistant strains possible
Generic Entry	Likely after patent expiry, influencing revenue streams

Market Strategy Recommendations

• Pricing Optimization: Leverage tiered pricing models to penetrate emerging markets while maintaining margins in mature regions.
• Formulation Innovation: Invest in development of single-tablet combinations with other antiretrovirals to strengthen market position.
• Pipeline Expansion: Support ongoing trials for resistant HIV strains and formulations for pediatric populations.
• Partnerships: Collaborate with regional health authorities and NGOs to expand access.

Conclusion

Doravirine stands as a strategically valuable but increasingly challenged asset within the HIV treatment sector. Its near-term revenue prospects remain positive, driven by expanding access and evolving treatment guidelines. Long-term valuation hinges on patent protections, competitive dynamics with integrase inhibitors, and the successful launch of next-generation formulations. Investors should monitor patent landscapes, market penetration, and pipeline developments to effectively gauge future profitability and market share.

Key Takeaways

• Growth trajectory: Anticipated revenue reaching approximately $1.3 billion by 2027, with steady market expansion.
• Competitive positioning: Differentiators include tolerability and safety, but face headwinds from entrenched therapies.
• Patent horizon: Expiring around 2030; significant generic competition anticipated thereafter.
• Market expansion: Opportunities in emerging markets and combination therapies present growth avenues.
• Investment caution: Patent risk, evolving competitive landscape, and regulatory factors necessitate cautious positioning.

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FAQs

1. What are the main differentiators of doravirine compared to other NNRTIs?

Doravirine offers a favorable safety profile, fewer drug-drug interactions, and lower incidence of neuropsychiatric adverse events compared to older NNRTIs like efavirenz and rilpivirine, making it suitable for patients intolerant to other therapies.

2. How does the patent life of doravirine impact future revenue potential?

Patent protection is expected until around 2030. Post-expiry, generic competitors could significantly diminish pricing and market share unless Merck develops new formulations or indications.

3. In which regions is doravirine showing the highest growth?

Currently, North America and Europe are primary markets; however, emerging markets such as Africa, Asia, and Latin America are showing increasing adoption due to expanded access programs and price flexibility.

4. What are the main competitive threats facing doravirine?

Dominant integrase inhibitor-based regimens, especially dolutegravir, present the primary competitive threat due to their higher resistance barrier and broader adoption in first-line therapy.

5. What future developments could influence doravirine's market trajectory?

Advancements include fixed-dose combinations, formulations for resistant strains, pediatric versions, and potential regulatory approvals for additional indications, all of which may extend its market relevance.