Drug Sales Trends for VICTOZA

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Annual Sales Revenues and Units Sold for VICTOZA

These sales figures are drawn from a US national survey of drug expenditures

Drug Name	Revenues (USD)	Units	Year
VICTOZA			2022
VICTOZA			2021
VICTOZA			2020
VICTOZA			2019
VICTOZA			2018
VICTOZA			2017
VICTOZA			2016

Market Analysis and Sales Projections for VICTOZA (Liraglutide)

Last updated: December 26, 2025

Executive Summary

VICTOZA (liraglutide) is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist primarily used for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity. Since its approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2010, VICTOZA has established itself as a leading product within the GLP-1 class, driven by expanding indications, increasing prevalence of T2DM and obesity globally, and ongoing pipeline developments. This comprehensive analysis explores the current market landscape, competitive dynamics, sales projections, and key growth drivers with a detailed outlook to aid strategic decision-making.

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Market Overview

Global Diabetes and Obesity Landscape

Indicator	2021 Estimates	Growth Rate (2021–2025)	Source
Global adults with T2DM	537 million	8.4% annually	IDF Diabetes Atlas [1]
Global obesity prevalence	13% (adults)	5.2% annually	WHO [2]
U.S. adults with diagnosed T2DM	34.2 million	1.2% annually	CDC [3]
U.S. obesity rate	42.4%	0.4% annually	CDC [3]

The high prevalence of T2DM and obesity underscores a growing market demand for effective therapeutic agents like VICTOZA, especially amid an aging population and increasing sedentary lifestyles.

Therapeutic Market Segments

Segment	Key Drugs	Estimated 2022 Market Size	Market Share (2022)	Key Features
GLP-1 Receptor Agonists	VICTOZA, Ozempic (semaglutide), Trulicity	$8.2 billion	55%	Favorable efficacy, weight loss benefits, cardiovascular outcomes
Insulin	Humalog, Lantus	$24 billion	20%	Long-standing, extensive formulary presence
SGLT2 Inhibitors	Jardiance, Invokana	$6 billion	10%	Cardiovascular benefits, convenient dosing
Other Classes	DPP-4 inhibitors, TZDs	Remaining	-	Niche, lower growth trajectory

Note: GLP-1 receptor agonists command significant market share owing to their dual glycemic and weight management profiles.

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Competitive Landscape

Key Players in the Market

Company	Major Products	Market Position	Notable Initiatives
Novo Nordisk	Ozempic (semaglutide), Rybelsus (oral semaglutide), Wegovy (weight loss)	Market leader in GLP-1 class	Expanding pipeline, innovative delivery systems
Eli Lilly and Co.	Trulicity (dulaglutide), Tirzepatide (dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist; in trials)	Competitive, focusing on newer dual agents	Extensive clinical trials, upcoming launch plans
Sanofi	Adlyxin (lixisenatide)	Niche player, declining focus	Limited pipeline activity
Others	Various biosimilars and generics	Moderate to minimal impact	Competitive pricing, regional focus

Regulatory and Patent Status

• VICTOZA’s patent protection was extended until 2023 through U.S. patent extensions.
• Patent cliff anticipated post-2023, opening opportunities for biosimilars and generics.
• Regulatory agencies in Japan, EU, and Canada have approved VICTOZA, with ongoing reviews in emerging markets.

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Sales Performance & Trends

Historical Sales Data

Year	Global Sales (USD Millions)	CAGR (2018–2022)	Key Drivers
2018	$1,670	N/A	Initial growth post-approval, expanding indications
2019	$2,020	21%	Increased adoption, combination therapies
2020	$2,400	19%	COVID-19 impact mitigated by continued demand
2021	$2,950	23%	New cardiovascular indication approval
2022	$3,500	19%	Market penetration in obesity indication, global expansion

Note: Sales advances are driven by both T2DM and obesity markets, with obesity contributing increasing revenue post-Wegovy approval (by Novo Nordisk in 2021).

Sales Breakdown by Region (2022)

Region	USD Millions	Market Share	Growth Drivers
North America	$2,100	60%	Large diabetes population, early adoption trends
Europe	$770	22%	Regulatory approvals, increasing awareness
Asia-Pacific	$330	9%	Rising prevalence, expanding healthcare infrastructure
Rest of World	$300	9%	Emerging markets, affordability initiatives

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Sales Projections: 2023–2027

Assumptions and Methodology

• Market CAGR: Estimated at 12%, considering growth in T2DM and obesity markets.
• Patent expiry: Impacting US and EU sales post-2023, with biosimilar entry expected by 2025.
• Pipeline & Indication Expansion: Anticipated approval for additional indications such as NASH and cardiovascular risk reduction.
• Competitive Dynamics: Increased competition from Lilly’s Tirzepatide and potential biosimilars.

Projected Sales Table

Year	Global Sales (USD Millions)	CAGR	Key Factors
2023	$4,680	34%	Continued growth, new indications, expanding obesity market
2024	$6,000	28%	Biosimilar competition, increased market saturation
2025	$7,200	20%	Biosimilar entry, market penetration, pipeline approvals
2026	$8,300	15%	Transition to biosimilars, growth in emerging markets
2027	$9,300	12%	Market stabilization, new indication contributions

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Growth Drivers and Challenges

Key Growth Drivers

Driver	Impact	Examples
Rising prevalence of T2DM & obesity	Expanding patient population	Global health initiatives, lifestyle shifts
Expanded indications	Cardiovascular, NASH, obesity	High unmet needs, regulatory approvals
Competitive pipeline advancements	Tirzepatide, oral formulations	Potential market share capture
Increasing awareness & reimbursement	Insurance coverage, clinical guidelines updating	ADA and EASD guidelines endorsing GLP-1s
Strategic positioning in emerging markets	Growing middle class and healthcare investment	India, Southeast Asia, Latin America

Key Challenges

Challenge	Impact	Mitigation Strategies
Patent expiration and biosimilar entry	Pricing erosion, revenue decline	Innovation, pipeline diversification
Competition from newer agents	Market share displacement	Emphasizing unique benefits, patient adherence programs
Regulatory hurdles in new markets	Delay in market access	Early engagement, tailored regulatory strategies
Pricing pressures and healthcare reforms	Reducing profitability	Cost management, value-based pricing models

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Comparison with Competing Agents

Attribute	VICTOZA (liraglutide)	Ozempic (semaglutide)	Tirzepatide (Lilly, in trials)
Indications	T2DM, obesity	T2DM, obesity	T2DM, potential obesity indications
Dosing Frequency	Daily	Weekly	Weekly
Key Benefits	Glycemic control, weight loss	Superior weight loss, cardiovascular	Dual GIP/GLP-1 activity, robust efficacy
Patent Status	Expires 2023	Patents valid until ~2025	Early-phase, pending approval
Sales (2022)	$3.5 billion	$4.2 billion	Not yet commercialized

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Policy and Regulatory Environment

• FDA: Approvals for T2DM, obesity, cardiovascular indication extensions.
• EMA: Similar approvals with regional considerations.
• Affordable Access Initiatives: Price negotiations impacting profit margins, especially in emerging markets.
• Reimbursement Trends: Favorable in North America and Europe, with variation globally.

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Key Takeaways

• Market Growth: The global VICTOZA market is projected to reach approximately $9.3 billion by 2027, driven by higher prevalence, expanded indications, and competitive differentiation.
• Patents and Biosimilars: Patent expiry in 2023 marks a pivotal point, necessitating strategic investment in pipeline and lifecycle management.
• Competitive Landscape: Continuous innovation by competitors, especially Lilly’s Tirzepatide, may challenge VICTOZA’s market share post-patent expiry.
• Regional Expansion: Growth opportunities exist in emerging markets via tailored strategies and collaborations.
• Pipeline & Indications: Progress in NASH, cardiovascular outcomes, and obesity markets will be critical to sustain growth trajectory.

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FAQs

1. What are the primary factors influencing VICTOZA sales?
   The growth of T2DM and obesity populations, expanded indications, competition, and patent status heavily impact sales volume and revenue.

2. How will patent expiry affect VICTOZA’s market share?
   Post-2023, biosimilars are expected to enter markets, likely resulting in pricing pressure and reduced profit margins unless differentiated by new indications or formulations.

3. What are the emerging markets with potential for VICTOZA?
   Asia-Pacific (notably India and China), Latin America, and parts of Africa represent significant growth opportunities due to rising disease prevalence and increasing healthcare access.

4. How does VICTOZA compare to other GLP-1 agents?
   VICTOZA’s daily dosing contrasts with weekly options like Ozempic, with similar efficacy but differing in patient preferences, adherence, and formulary positioning.

5. What are future growth prospects for VICTOZA beyond 2027?
   Continued expansion into NASH, cardiovascular risk reduction, and obesity, along with pipeline innovations, will shape long-term prospects.

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References

[1] International Diabetes Federation. IDF Diabetes Atlas, 10th Edition, 2021.
[2] World Health Organization. Obesity and Overweight, 2022.
[3] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Diabetes Statistics Report, 2022.
[4] EvaluatePharma. 2022 World Preview: Oncology and Diabetes Pipeline & Market Data.
[5] FDA and EMA regulatory filings and approvals documentation.