Last updated: February 23, 2026
What is the drug associated with NDC 71930-0055?
NDC 71930-0055 is the National Drug Code for Verzenio (abemaciclib), developed by Eli Lilly. It is indicated for treatment of HR-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer. Approved by the FDA in 2017, it is a CDK4/6 inhibitor.
What is the current market landscape for abemaciclib?
Market Position
- Indication: Breast cancer, primarily HR-positive, HER2-negative.
- Competition: Key competitors include ribociclib (Kisqali) by Novartis and palbociclib (Ibrance) by Pfizer.
- Market Size: The global breast cancer drug market was valued at approximately USD 8.4 billion in 2022, projected to grow at a 6.4% CAGR through 2030.
Market Penetration
- Sales Data: Eli Lilly reported Verzenio global sales of USD 1.4 billion in 2022.
- Market Share: Estimated at around 20-25% among CDK4/6 inhibitors in the U.S. (IQVIA, 2023).
Pricing and Cost Dynamics
- Average Wholesale Price (AWP): In the U.S., the retail price is approximately USD 11,000 per month.
- Reimbursement: Insurance coverage and patient assistance programs influence net prices.
- Pricing Trends: Slight increases over years, aligned with inflation and market share growth.
What are the key drivers influencing the market?
- Regulatory Approvals: Additional indications such as early-stage breast cancer could expand market size.
- Clinical Efficacy: Data shows comparable or superior efficacy to competitors, affecting prescribing patterns.
- Pricing Strategies: Premium pricing justified by clinical benefits, but subject to payer scrutiny.
- Patent Protection: Patent expiry slated for 2029, risking generic entry afterward.
- Market Competition: Aggressive marketing and development of biosimilars for competitors.
What are the price projections through 2030?
| Year |
Expected Average Monthly Price |
Factors Influencing Price |
| 2023 |
USD 11,000 |
Current market, high demand, limited biosimilar competition |
| 2024 |
USD 11,200 |
Slight inflation, expanded indications possible |
| 2025 |
USD 11,500 |
Potential generic entry near patent expiry, price pressures increase |
| 2026 |
USD 10,500 |
First biosimilars enter, price reduction expected |
| 2027 |
USD 9,800 |
Increased biosimilar market share, further price erosion |
| 2028 |
USD 9,000 |
Continued biosimilar competition, margin compression |
| 2029 |
USD 8,500 |
Patent expiry, mass entry of biosimilars |
| 2030 |
USD 8,000 |
Market stabilization with biosimilars, potential price plateau |
Assumptions
- The price decline post-patent expiry follows historical trends observed with similar drugs.
- Market share stabilizes with biosimilar penetration.
- Regulatory environment remains consistent; no major policy shifts.
How will biosimilar entry impact pricing?
- Biosimilar competition typically reduces prices by 20-40% within 2-3 years post-entry.
- Actual pricing may vary depending on payer negotiations and market acceptance.
- Lilly may introduce new formulations or combination therapies to sustain market share.
What are potential growth opportunities?
- Expanding into earlier-stage breast cancer treatment.
- Combining abemaciclib with other targeted agents for co-formulations.
- Entering new regional markets with unmet needs.
Summarized Market Forecast
| Year |
Estimated Revenue (USD Millions) |
Key Notes |
| 2023 |
1,400 |
Stable demand, strong market presence |
| 2025 |
1,200 |
Price erosion begins, biosimilar competition intensifies |
| 2030 |
900 |
Market saturation, biosimilar dominance |
Key Takeaways
- The global breast cancer market, notably for HR-positive, HER2-negative disease, drives demand for abemaciclib.
- Current pricing has high penetration but faces decline post-patent expiry, due to biosimilar competition.
- Price projections suggest a steady decrease, reaching approximately USD 8,000/month (~USD 96,000/year) by 2030.
- Market drivers include expanding indications, clinical data, and payer policies.
- Competition from biosimilars and generics will influence prices more significantly after 2029.
FAQs
1. Will the price of abemaciclib decrease significantly before patent expiry?
Yes. While current prices are stable, biosimilar competition post-2029 is likely to cause significant reductions.
2. Are there any upcoming regulatory approvals that could influence market size?
Yes. Expanded indications for early-stage breast cancer or other cancers could increase market penetration.
3. How does the U.S. pricing compare to international markets?
Pricing is generally higher in the U.S., with variability around USD 11,000/month; international prices are typically lower due to pricing regulations.
4. What are the main factors affecting the drug’s market share?
Efficacy, safety profile, physician preferences, payer reimbursement policies, and biosimilar availability.
5. How might advances in competing therapies influence future pricing?
New therapies with better efficacy or safety profiles could displace abemaciclib, pressuring prices downward.
References
[1] IQVIA. (2023). Market Trends and Sales Data for Oncology Drugs.
[2] Eli Lilly. (2022). Verzenio Annual Report.
[3] U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2017). FDA Approval for Abemaciclib.
