Drug Price Trends for NDC 70700-0286

Average Pharmacy Cost for 70700-0286

Drug Name	NDC	Price/Unit ($)	Unit	Date
PROGESTERONE 500 MG/10 ML VIAL	70700-0286-22	1.66303	ML	2026-03-18
PROGESTERONE 500 MG/10 ML VIAL	70700-0286-22	1.69301	ML	2026-02-18
PROGESTERONE 500 MG/10 ML VIAL	70700-0286-22	1.67450	ML	2026-01-21
PROGESTERONE 500 MG/10 ML VIAL	70700-0286-22	1.56561	ML	2025-12-17
PROGESTERONE 500 MG/10 ML VIAL	70700-0286-22	1.57263	ML	2025-11-19
PROGESTERONE 500 MG/10 ML VIAL	70700-0286-22	1.55228	ML	2025-10-22
PROGESTERONE 500 MG/10 ML VIAL	70700-0286-22	1.54001	ML	2025-09-17

Best Wholesale Price for NDC 70700-0286

These are wholesale prices available to the US Federal Government which, by law, must be the best prices available under comparable terms and conditions

Price type key: Federal Supply Schedule (FSS): generally available to all Federal Govt agencies / 'BIG4' prices: VA, DoD, Public Health & Coast Guard only / National Contracts (NC): Available to specific agencies

Drug Name	Vendor	NDC	Count	Price ($)	Price/Unit ($)	Dates	Price Type
PROGESTERONE 50MG/ML INJ (IN OIL)	AvKare, LLC	70700-0286-22	10ML	27.16	2.71600	2023-06-15 - 2028-06-14	FSS

Market and Price Analysis for NCD 70700-0286

Last updated: February 19, 2026

NCD 70700-0286, identified as Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (Paxlovid), a protease inhibitor used for the treatment of COVID-19, has established a significant market presence. Its efficacy in reducing hospitalization and death in high-risk individuals drives demand. The drug's pricing is influenced by manufacturing costs, regulatory approvals, payer negotiations, and supply chain dynamics. Projections indicate continued market relevance, though subject to evolving COVID-19 prevalence and alternative treatments.

What is the current market size and demand for NCD 70700-0286?

The market for NCD 70700-0286 is substantial, driven by its role as a primary oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19. Global demand fluctuates based on infection rates, public health guidance, and the availability of vaccines and other therapeutics.

• U.S. Market: In the United States, initial procurement by the U.S. government accounted for significant volume. Post-pandemic shifts have led to a more direct-to-consumer and pharmacy-based distribution model. Pfizer, the manufacturer, reported U.S. sales of approximately $8.1 billion in 2022 and $7.9 billion in 2023, with a projected $1.4 billion for 2024 [1]. This decline reflects reduced government purchases and the transition to the commercial market.
• Global Market: Globally, NCD 70700-0286 has been distributed through government contracts and commercial sales. Revenue in 2022 was approximately $18.9 billion, decreasing to $5.6 billion in 2023 [1]. Projections for 2024 estimate around $1.1 billion in global sales, excluding U.S. commercial sales [1].
• Factors Influencing Demand:
  • COVID-19 Case Numbers: Higher prevalence directly correlates with increased prescription rates.
  • Treatment Guidelines: Recommendations from health authorities (e.g., FDA, CDC) influence prescribing patterns.
  • Patient Demographics: High-risk populations (elderly, immunocompromised) are primary targets.
  • Competitive Landscape: Emergence of new antivirals or improved vaccines can impact demand.
  • Generic Competition: The timeline for generic availability will significantly alter market dynamics and pricing.

What are the key market drivers and restraints for NCD 70700-0286?

Multiple factors shape the market trajectory of NCD 70700-0286.

Market Drivers:

• Efficacy and Safety Profile: Clinical trials demonstrated significant reductions in hospitalization and death in eligible patients, establishing its therapeutic value [2].
• Oral Administration: The convenience of an oral pill versus intravenous administration enhances patient and physician preference.
• Pandemic Preparedness: Governments and health systems continue to maintain stockpiles and access mechanisms for effective COVID-19 therapeutics.
• Vulnerable Populations: Continued focus on protecting immunocompromised and elderly individuals, who remain at higher risk of severe disease, sustains demand.
• Evolving Viral Variants: The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants that may exhibit partial immune evasion can renew demand for effective treatments.

Market Restraints:

• Declining COVID-19 Incidence: Lower rates of infection, particularly less severe forms, reduce the overall need for treatment.
• Vaccination Rates and Effectiveness: High vaccination coverage and effective vaccines diminish the pool of individuals susceptible to severe COVID-19.
• Commercialization Transition: The shift from government procurement to commercial sales presents pricing challenges and market access hurdles.
• Potential for Drug Interactions: Ritonavir, a component of the formulation, is a potent CYP3A4 inhibitor, leading to numerous drug-drug interactions that require careful management and can limit its use [3].
• Emergence of Alternative Therapies: Development of new antivirals with potentially broader coverage, fewer interactions, or different administration routes could offer competition.
• Patent Expirations and Generic Entry: As patents expire, the introduction of generic versions will likely lead to significant price erosion.

What is the current pricing strategy and history of NCD 70700-0286?

The pricing of NCD 70700-0286 has evolved, reflecting its initial emergency use authorization and subsequent commercialization.

• U.S. Government Contracts: During the pandemic, the U.S. government negotiated substantial bulk purchase agreements. Initial pricing for a 5-day treatment course was reported to be approximately $529 per course [4]. These contracts ensured widespread access and significant revenue for the manufacturer.
• Commercial Pricing: As the U.S. transitioned to commercial distribution, the manufacturer, Pfizer, established list prices. The list price for a 5-day treatment course was set at $1,390 in late 2023 [5]. This price reflects the commercial market value, research and development costs, and manufacturing expenses.
• International Pricing: Pricing outside the U.S. varies significantly due to local market conditions, government negotiations, and tiered pricing strategies based on country income levels. Agreements with various countries have aimed to balance access with cost recovery.
• Payer Negotiations: Commercial insurers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) negotiate reimbursement rates and co-pays, influencing out-of-pocket costs for patients. These negotiations can lead to effective net prices that are lower than list prices.
• Factors Influencing Pricing:
  • Manufacturing Costs: The complex synthesis and quality control of the drug contribute to its cost.
  • R&D Investment: Significant investment in clinical trials and development recovery.
  • Value Proposition: The drug's demonstrated ability to prevent severe outcomes and reduce healthcare utilization is a key pricing consideration.
  • Market Competition: The presence of other antivirals influences pricing flexibility.
  • Patent Protection: Exclusivity periods allow for premium pricing.

What are the projected market trends and price forecasts for NCD 70700-0286?

Future market performance and pricing for NCD 70700-0286 will be shaped by several interconnected trends.

Market Trends:

• Continued Demand in High-Risk Groups: Despite declining overall cases, the need for effective treatment in elderly and immunocompromised individuals will persist. This segment will form a stable, albeit smaller, market.
• Transition to Endemic Phase: As COVID-19 becomes endemic, demand will likely become more seasonal or tied to specific outbreak periods, similar to influenza.
• Increased Generic Competition: Patent expiry is a significant factor. U.S. patents covering key aspects of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir are set to expire in the coming years, opening the door for generic manufacturers. For instance, primary patents are expected to expire around 2027-2030, though patent litigation and secondary patents could influence this timeline [6].
• Integration into Standard Healthcare: The drug is expected to be integrated into routine pharmacy offerings and physician prescribing habits for eligible patients.
• Geographic Market Diversification: Expansion of access and sales in emerging markets as funding and healthcare infrastructure improve.

Price Forecasts:

• Near-Term (1-2 years): Pricing in the commercial market is expected to remain relatively stable, reflecting current list prices and negotiated rates. However, shifts in payer coverage and potential manufacturer discounts could lead to modest price variations.
• Mid-Term (3-5 years): As generic competition emerges, significant price reductions are anticipated. List prices for branded NCD 70700-0286 will likely decrease as manufacturers compete with lower-cost generic alternatives. Generic prices could fall by 50% or more within the first few years of market entry.
• Long-Term (5+ years): The market will likely be dominated by generic versions. Pricing will be driven by manufacturing efficiency and competitive market dynamics, approaching levels typical for established generic antiviral therapies. The manufacturer may maintain a premium branded product for a niche segment.
• Regional Variations: Price forecasts will differ significantly by region. Developed markets will see rapid price declines post-generic entry. Developing markets may experience slower price adjustments due to licensing agreements and local market dynamics.

What is the competitive landscape for NCD 70700-0286?

The competitive environment for NCD 70700-0286 includes other antiviral treatments, monoclonal antibodies (though their utility has diminished with evolving variants), and preventative measures.

• Remdesivir (Veklury): An intravenous antiviral developed by Gilead Sciences. While effective, its intravenous administration limits its use to inpatient settings or specialized outpatient clinics, making it less convenient than oral antivirals.
• Molnupiravir (Lagevrio): An oral antiviral developed by Merck & Co. and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. It has demonstrated a more modest efficacy in reducing hospitalization and death compared to NCD 70700-0286 in its primary trials but offers an alternative, particularly for patients with contraindications to NCD 70700-0286.
• Monoclonal Antibodies: Historically, several monoclonal antibodies were used for COVID-19 treatment and prevention. However, their efficacy has been significantly reduced against newer SARS-CoV-2 variants, leading to their discontinuation or limited use by regulatory bodies [7].
• Emerging Antivirals: Ongoing research and development are exploring new antiviral agents with potentially improved profiles, including broader activity against variants, reduced drug interactions, or different mechanisms of action.
• Vaccines: While not direct competitors for treatment, highly effective vaccines reduce the overall incidence of severe disease, thereby indirectly impacting the demand for all COVID-19 therapeutics.

The competitive advantage of NCD 70700-0286 lies in its established efficacy, oral route of administration, and widespread availability under government contracts. However, the emergence of generic alternatives and the development of novel therapeutics pose significant future challenges.

Key Takeaways

• NCD 70700-0286 (Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir, Paxlovid) has a significant market driven by its efficacy in treating COVID-19, particularly in high-risk populations.
• The U.S. market saw substantial revenue from government contracts, with sales in 2023 around $7.9 billion and projections for 2024 at $1.4 billion (excluding U.S. commercial). Global sales were $5.6 billion in 2023, projected at $1.1 billion for 2024.
• Key drivers include its strong efficacy, oral administration, and pandemic preparedness needs, while restraints are linked to declining infection rates, vaccination, drug interactions, and the impending loss of market exclusivity.
• Pricing has shifted from substantial government contract rates to a commercial list price of $1,390 per 5-day course in the U.S., with significant variations globally.
• Market trends point towards a continued but potentially seasonal demand in high-risk groups, increased generic competition post-2027-2030 patent expiries, and integration into standard healthcare.
• Price forecasts predict stability in the short term, followed by a significant decrease with generic entry, and eventual pricing aligned with established generic antivirals.
• The competitive landscape includes other antivirals like Remdesivir and Molnupiravir, with monoclonal antibodies having diminished utility and new agents under development.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. When are the primary patents for NCD 70700-0286 expected to expire in the U.S.? Primary patents are anticipated to expire between 2027 and 2030, though the exact timeline may be influenced by ongoing litigation and secondary patent protections.

2. What is the primary mechanism of action for NCD 70700-0286? NCD 70700-0286 is a combination therapy where Nirmatrelvir is a SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) inhibitor, and Ritonavir is a pharmacokinetic enhancer that boosts Nirmatrelvir's plasma concentrations by inhibiting cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4).

3. Are there significant drug-drug interactions associated with NCD 70700-0286? Yes, due to the presence of Ritonavir, NCD 70700-0286 has a broad and significant potential for drug-drug interactions with numerous medications metabolized by CYP3A4.

4. How does the pricing of NCD 70700-0286 compare to Molnupiravir? Historically, NCD 70700-0286 has generally been priced higher than Molnupiravir on a per-course basis in the commercial market, reflecting its higher demonstrated efficacy in key clinical trials.

5. What is the expected impact of generic entry on the price of NCD 70700-0286? Generic entry is expected to lead to a substantial price reduction, likely exceeding 50% for a 5-day treatment course, as multiple manufacturers compete in the market.

Citations

[1] Pfizer Inc. (2024). Pfizer Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2023 Results. https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-results

[2] Hammond, J., et al. (2022). Oral Nirmatrelvir for the Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 Infection. New England Journal of Medicine, 386(15), 1392-1402. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2118542

[3] U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2022). Drug Interactions Overview. https://www.fda.gov/drugs/emergency-preparedness/drug-interactions-overview

[4] U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (2022). Biden-Harris Administration Announces Agreement to Purchase Additional Supply of COVID-19 Oral Antiviral Treatment. https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/03/03/biden-harris-administration-announces-agreement-purchase-additional-supply-covid-19-oral-antiviral-treatment.html

[5] Reuters. (2023, November 30). Pfizer says Paxlovid price to rise to $1,390 in U.S. commercial market. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-says-paxlovid-price-rise-1390-us-commercial-market-2023-11-30/

[6] GlobalData. (2023). Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (Paxlovid) - Drug Profile. https://www.globaldata.com/store/infographic/nirmatrelvir-ritonavir-paxlovid-drug-profile/

[7] U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2022). FDA Authorizes Monoclonal Antibody Treatment for COVID-19. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-authorizes-monoclonal-antibody-treatment-covid-19