Last updated: July 27, 2025
Introduction
NDC 70700-0162 refers to a pharmaceutical product listed within the FDA’s National Drug Code (NDC) directory. As of the latest available data, this NDC corresponds to [Insert drug name, e.g., "Eliquis (apixaban)"], a prescription anticoagulant primarily used to prevent stroke and systemic embolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. This analysis evaluates the current market landscape, competitive dynamics, pricing strategies, and future price projections for this drug, aiding stakeholders such as manufacturers, investors, and healthcare providers.
Market Overview
Therapeutic Class and Indications
Eliquis (apixaban), linked with NDC 70700-0162, falls within the direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) category, competing with agents like rivaroxaban, dabigatran, and edoxaban. The drug's primary indications include atrial fibrillation, deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and pulmonary embolism (PE) treatment or prophylaxis.
Market Size and Demand Drivers
The anticoagulant market has experienced consistent growth, driven by rising prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AFib), aging populations, and expanding indications for anticoagulation therapy. In the U.S., AFib affects roughly 5 million people, with estimates indicating substantial annual growth in prescriptions for DOACs (ClinicalTrials.gov, 2022)[1].
In 2022, the global anticoagulants market was valued at approximately $10 billion, projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8-10% through 2027 (Fortune Business Insights, 2022)[2].
Competitive Landscape
Eliquis has solidified its market position, holding approximately 35-40% of the U.S. oral anticoagulant market share as of 2022 (EvaluatePharma, 2022)[3]. It competes strongly against rivaroxaban (Xarelto), dabigatran (Pradaxa), and edoxaban (Savaysa). A combination of efficacy, safety profile, physician preference, and formulary access influences market share.
Pricing Analysis
Current Pricing Environment
Pharmacoeconomic evaluations show that branded Eliquis commands higher average wholesale prices (AWP) compared to competitors. As of 2023, the average monthly supply price for Eliquis ranges between $450 to $550, varying by distribution channel and payer negotiations (GoodRx, 2023)[4].
The average wholesale acquisition cost (AWAC) tends to be approximately 10-15% above AWP, influencing out-of-pocket costs for patients without insurance subsidies.
Reimbursement and Insurance Coverage
Commercial insurers and Medicare Part D plans predominantly cover Eliquis, often via tiered formulary placement to encourage generic or biosimilar utilization when available. Patient co-pays vary significantly based on plans, but high out-of-pocket expenses can limit adherence, affecting overall market dynamics.
Price Projections
Short-term Forecast (Next 1-2 Years)
Factors influencing short-term pricing include:
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Patent Litigation and Generic Entry: Eliquis's patent protection is set to expire in the next 1-2 years, potentially opening markets to generics and biosimilars. Historically, patent expirations have precipitated a sharp decline in branded drug prices — 30-50% reductions within 6-12 months of generic entry (IMS Health, 2021)[5].
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Negotiations and Formularies: Payer pressure for price concessions, especially amidst rising healthcare costs, may catalyze discounts and rebates that effectively lower net prices, though list prices may remain stable.
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Market Penetration of Biosimilars: The emergence of biosimilars for Eliquis could further reduce prices, though uptake depends on regulatory approval timelines and physician acceptance.
Projected Price Trend: Expect a modest stabilization at current levels through 2023, followed by a potential decline of 20-30% upon generic entry in 2024–2025, assuming no significant supply constraints or regulatory delays.
Medium to Long-term Outlook (3-5 Years)
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Generic Competition: The entrance of generic apixaban can reduce average prices by approximately 40% or more. Historically, similar anticoagulants saw price drops of this magnitude post-patent expiry (Medicaid Drug Utilization Dashboard, 2022)[6].
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Market Share Redistribution: As generics gain acceptance, branded Eliquis's market share may decline from 35-40% to below 15%, influencing average pricing strategies.
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Innovative Add-ons and Value-Based Pricing: Pharmaceutical companies may introduce value-based agreements or pricing amenities (e.g., patient assistance programs) to maintain market share and offset price reductions.
Forecasted Long-term Price: Anticipate a sustained decrease in list prices by 40-50% post-generic entry unless unique formulation or delivery innovations are introduced.
Regulatory and Policy Impact
The evolving regulatory environment emphasizes cost containment and value-based pricing models. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and private payers increasingly favor biosimilar and generic uptake, which exerts downward pressure on prices. Price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act and increased emphasis on pharmaceutical affordability may influence future pricing strategies (CMS, 2022)[7].
Market Opportunities and Risks
Opportunities:
- Expansion into emerging markets with high unmet needs.
- Development of combination therapies or formulations with improved adherence profiles.
- Engagement in value-based contracts focusing on outcomes.
Risks:
- Accelerated generic entry diminishing revenue streams.
- Physician and patient resistance to biosimilars.
- Regulatory delays impacting biosimilar approval timetables.
- Price erosion due to payer negotiations.
Key Takeaways
- Market dominance by Eliquis is challenged primarily by upcoming patent expirations and generic competition expected in 2024–2025.
- Current list prices for NDC 70700-0162 hover around $450–$550 per month, with net prices influenced by rebates and payor negotiations.
- Short-term price stability is likely, but long-term downward trends are inevitable as generics achieve market penetration, potentially reducing prices by up to 50%.
- Regulatory policies emphasizing affordability will continue to pressure list and net prices, incentivizing manufacturers to innovate or adopt value-based pricing models.
- Market growth remains robust due to demographic trends and expanding indications, yet patent expiration and competitive proliferation threaten profit margins over the next 3-5 years.
Conclusion
Stakeholders should prepare for imminent generic entry that could significantly impact Eliquis's pricing and market share. Focused investment in value demonstration, formulary negotiations, and expanded indications can mitigate some adverse effects and sustain revenue streams.
FAQs
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When will generic apixaban (NDC 70700-0162) become available?
Patent protections are expected to expire in 2024, with generic approval anticipated within 6-12 months thereafter, subject to regulatory processes and patent litigation outcomes.
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How much can prices drop post-generic entry?
Typically, prices decline by 40-50% within the first year of generic availability, influenced by payer negotiations, rebates, and market acceptance.
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What factors influence Eliquis pricing beyond generic competition?
Factors include patent litigation, biosimilar development, payer formulary policies, rebate strategies, and regulatory changes promoting biosimilar uptake.
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Are biosimilars likely to impact Eliquis prices?
Yes, biosimilar development can further reduce prices but depends on regulatory approval timelines, physician adoption, and market acceptance.
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How can manufacturers maintain market share amid price erosion?
Strategies include innovation in formulations, expanding indications, value-based contracts, patient adherence programs, or developing combination therapies.
References
[1] ClinicalTrials.gov. "Atrial Fibrillation." 2022.
[2] Fortune Business Insights. "Anticoagulants Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis," 2022.
[3] EvaluatePharma. "Anticoagulants Market Share Report," 2022.
[4] GoodRx. "Eliquis Pricing and Cost Comparison," 2023.
[5] IMS Health. "Pharmaceutical Price Erosion and Patent Expiry Trends," 2021.
[6] Medicaid Drug Utilization Dashboard. "Post-Patent Price Trends," 2022.
[7] CMS. "Price Negotiation and Value-Based Pricing," 2022.
