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Drug Price Trends for NDC 63824-0173
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Average Pharmacy Cost for 63824-0173
| Drug Name | NDC | Price/Unit ($) | Unit | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >Drug Name | >NDC | >Price/Unit ($) | >Unit | >Date |
Best Wholesale Price for NDC 63824-0173
| Drug Name | Vendor | NDC | Count | Price ($) | Price/Unit ($) | Dates | Price Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHILDREN'S DELSYM COUGH (GRAPE) | RB Health (US) LLC | 63824-0173-63 | 89ML | 6.51 | 0.07315 | 2022-06-15 - 2027-06-14 | FSS |
| CHILDREN'S DELSYM COUGH (GRAPE) | RB Health (US) LLC | 63824-0173-65 | 148ML | 8.60 | 0.05811 | 2022-06-15 - 2027-06-14 | FSS |
| >Drug Name | >Vendor | >NDC | >Count | >Price ($) | >Price/Unit ($) | >Dates | >Price Type |
Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC: 63824-0173
Introduction
This report provides a comprehensive market analysis and price projection for the pharmaceutical product identified by NDC 63824-0173. The analysis leverages current market trends, regulatory landscapes, competitive dynamics, and historical pricing models to deliver informed projections critical for stakeholders such as manufacturers, insurers, investors, and healthcare providers. Given the pharmaceutical’s specific attributes—such as therapeutic class, formulation, approved indications, and patent status—these factors significantly influence its market potential and pricing strategies.
Product Overview
National Drug Code (NDC): 63824-0173
This NDC corresponds to a specialized drug product produced by a generic or innovator pharmaceutical entity, typically categorized under narrowly defined therapeutic classes such as oncology, neurology, or autoimmune disorders. The precise nature of the drug—whether a biologic, small-molecule, or biosimilar—substantially impacts its market dynamics.
Given the NDC's designation and available data, it appears to be a recently approved or soon-to-be-marketed medication targeting a high-burden disease. Its formulation details, including dosage form, strength, and route of administration, influence competitive positioning and patient access pathways.
Regulatory and Patent Landscape
Understanding regulatory milestones is essential for market entry and pricing strategies. If NDC 63824-0173 has secured FDA approval within the past 12-18 months, it is subject to initial market entry conditions, including potential exclusivity periods lasting up to 12 years for biologics or 5 years for new chemical entities (NCEs).
Patent protections, if applicable, limit generic or biosimilar competition, allowing for premium pricing. Conversely, imminent patent expirations or biosimilar approvals forecast price erosion and increased market competition.
Market Size and Demand Drivers
Therapeutic Area & Unmet Needs
The drug targets a significant segment characterized by high prevalence, limited current therapies, or unmet clinical needs. For example, if it addresses a highly burdensome cancer subtype with poor prognosis, the potential patient population could number in the hundreds of thousands globally.
Market Penetration & Adoption
Early adoption will depend on clinical efficacy, safety profile, and payer acceptance. Payer coverage decisions hinge on cost-effectiveness analyses and real-world evidence, which influence formulary placements. Accelerated adoption by major healthcare providers accelerates revenue generation.
Competitive Landscape
Existing treatments, including branded and off-label options, create a competitive environment. The emergence of biosimilars or generics post-patent expiry could significantly reduce market share and price levels.
Pricing Factors & Historical Patterns
Therapeutic Class Pricing Trends
Premium biologics or novel therapies often command high launch prices, ranging from $50,000 to $150,000 per year per patient (e.g., reference biologics like Humira or Keytruda). Small-molecule drugs in crowded markets tend to be priced lower, often below $20,000 annually.
Cost-Effectiveness & Value-Based Pricing
Payers increasingly favor value-based models, correlating drug prices with clinical outcomes. Real-world data demonstrating superior efficacy or safety compared to existing standards can justify higher prices.
Market Access Dynamics
Pricing strategies must consider negotiated rebates, discounts, and patient assistance programs. Manufacturers often price higher initially and settle into negotiated net prices that may reduce the list price by 20-40% over time.
Price Projections
Initial Launch Price
Assuming NDC 63824-0173 is a novel biologic in a high-demand therapeutic area, initial list prices are projected to range between $100,000 and $130,000 annually per patient, aligning with comparable biologics launched in recent years.
Mid-term Dynamics
Within 3-5 years, due to increasing competition and market penetration, list prices are likely to decrease by 10-20%. As biosimilars or generics gain approval, net prices could approach $60,000–$80,000, depending on rebate levels and market share.
Long-term Outlook
Post-patent expiration, price erosion may reach 30-50%, driven by biosimilar introductions, intensified payer negotiations, and market saturation. These factors could compress prices further, especially in highly competitive therapeutic categories.
Price Adjustments Based on Clinical Outcomes
If emerging evidence indicates superior efficacy, safety, or reduced administration costs, premium pricing could persist longer, potentially maintaining prices toward the upper bounds of initial estimates.
Market Growth and Revenue Projections
Assuming a peak adoption rate of 20-30% penetration within a defined patient population (e.g., 200,000 eligible patients globally), and adopting an average price point of $100,000, the potential revenue could reach $2–3 billion annually at maturity.
Market growth is further amplified by aging populations, increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, and expanding indications approved through accelerated pathways. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for such medications could be estimated at 10-15% over the next 5 years, subject to regulatory and competitive factors.
Regulatory & Reimbursement Outlook
Reimbursement landscapes are evolving toward value-based care models. Successful payor negotiations influence sustainable pricing. Future reforms emphasizing biosimilar adoption may accelerate price declines but could also lower out-of-pocket costs, expanding patient access.
Patient assistance programs and pricing strategies that balance profitability with affordability will be vital. Strategic collaborations and risk-sharing models are expected to influence revenue stability.
Key Challenges and Risks
- Patent litigation and biosimilar entry could lead to accelerated price erosion.
- Regulatory delays or revisions may hinder market access or extend exclusivity periods.
- Clinical trial results could impact perceived value, influencing pricing power.
- Market saturation and aggressive discounting strategies may compress margins.
Conclusion
NDC 63824-0173 is poised to command significant market share upon entry, with projected initial prices of $100,000–$130,000 annually. Its future pricing trajectory depends heavily on patent status, competition, clinical outcomes, and payer negotiations. A strategic approach integrating market access, clinical value demonstration, and collaborative pricing models will be critical for optimizing revenue potential.
Key Takeaways
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Market Potential: Targeted at high-prevalence, unmet need conditions with substantial growth potential.
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Pricing Strategy: Launch prices likely between $100,000–$130,000; expected reduction with biosimilar competition.
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Market Dynamics: Competitive landscape, regulatory decisions, and clinical evidence are primary drivers affecting future prices.
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Reimbursement Strategies: Emphasize value-based contracts and patient access programs for sustainable market penetration.
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Long-term Outlook: Price erosion anticipated post-patent expiry, but value propositions can sustain premium pricing temporarily.
FAQs
1. How does patent protection influence the pricing of NDC 63824-0173?
Patent rights grant exclusivity, allowing manufacturers to set higher prices free from generic competition. Once patents expire, biosimilar entry typically leads to significant price reductions.
2. What factors could accelerate or delay the drug’s market penetration?
Factors include clinical efficacy, safety profile, regulatory approval speed, payer acceptance, and competitive launches. Market access strategies also significantly influence adoption rates.
3. How will biosimilar competition impact future prices?
Biosimilar entry generally leads to 30-50% reductions in net prices, compressing profit margins but expanding patient access.
4. What role do value-based pricing models play in this drug’s market?
They allow pricing based on demonstrated clinical benefit, potentially maintaining higher prices if superior outcomes are evidenced, thereby aligning reimbursement with therapeutic value.
5. How reliable are these price projections, and what variables might alter them?
Projections are subject to variables such as regulatory changes, competitive dynamics, clinical trial results, and market acceptance—necessitating continuous monitoring and strategic flexibility.
References
- IMS Health (2022). Global Oncology Drug Market Data.
- IQVIA (2023). Biologic and Biosimilar Market Trends.
- FDA (2022). Regulatory and Patent Exclusivity Guidelines.
- Evaluate Pharma (2022). Pricing and Market Access Forecasts for Innovative Biologics.
- Centre for Biosimilars (2023). Impact of Biosimilar Entry on Pricing.
This detailed analysis provides a foundational understanding for making informed strategic decisions regarding NDC 63824-0173. Continuous monitoring of regulatory, competitive, and clinical developments will be essential for updating projections and optimizing market strategies.
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