Last updated: February 27, 2026
What is NDC 51407-0623?
NDC 51407-0623 corresponds to Vaxneuvance, a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine developed by Merck. It is approved for adults aged 19 years and older for the prevention of Streptococcus pneumoniae infections. It is part of Merck's portfolio targeting infectious diseases and has gained market acceptance post-approval.
Market Size and Demand Dynamics
Patient Population
- The target population is adults aged 19 and above, estimated at approximately 258 million people in the United States.
- The CDC recommends pneumococcal vaccination for at-risk populations, including:
- Adults ≥65 years.
- Adults aged 19-64 with specific comorbidities such as chronic heart, lung, or kidney diseases, and immunocompromised states.
Market Penetration
- Prior vaccines, such as Pneumovax 23 and Prevnar 13, existed with substantial market shares.
- Vaxneuvance entered a competitive landscape with an emphasis on broader serotype coverage and immunogenicity.
- Market adoption is influenced by:
- Physician prescribing behaviors.
- Reimbursement policies.
- Vaccine availability logistics.
Competitive Landscape
| Product Name |
Manufacturer |
Approval Year |
Coverage |
Price Range (per dose) |
Market Share (est.) |
| Prevnar 13 |
Pfizer |
2010 |
13 serotypes |
$150–$180 |
40% |
| Pneumovax 23 |
Merck |
1977 |
23 serotypes |
$80–$120 |
30% |
| Vaxneuvance |
Merck |
2021 |
15 serotypes |
$190–$220 |
20% (initial) |
Note: Market share values are estimates based on industry reports.
Market Trends
- Uptake accelerated post-approval due to high adult pneumococcal disease burden.
- Cost-effectiveness analyses favor broader coverage vaccines, influencing payer and provider preferences.
Revenue Estimates
- Estimated US sales for adult pneumococcal vaccines in 2022: approximately $2 billion.
- Vaxneuvance accounted for roughly $400 million during that period.
- Forecasted annual growth rate: 10-12% driven by increased adult vaccination awareness.
Price Projections
Short-term (Next 1–2 Years)
- Current average wholesale price (AWP): $210–$220 per dose.
- Rebate adjustments and insurance negotiations typically reduce net price to providers to approximately $150–$180.
- Expected stability due to existing manufacturing capacity and competitive pricing pressures.
Medium-term (Next 3–5 Years)
- Price pressures likely to emerge from:
- Payer negotiations.
- Introduction of biosimilars or competing vaccines.
- Policy shifts toward value-based pricing.
- Projected AWP: $200–$215.
- Net prices may decline to $140–$170 per dose as volume increases and market shares stabilize.
Long-term (Beyond 5 Years)
- Price reduction anticipated as patents expire, leading to generic options.
- Potential for value-based contracts to be adopted, linking payment to vaccine efficacy and public health outcomes.
- Aggregate market growth expected to continue, supported by expanding adult immunization policies.
Pricing and Regulatory Trends Impacting the Market
- Recent updates from the CDC’s Adult Immunization Schedule favor broad use of conjugate vaccines.
- CMS reimbursement policies are consolidating around value-based metrics.
- COVID-19 pandemic has heightened awareness of infectious disease prevention, increasing acceptance for pneumococcal vaccination.
Conclusions and Strategic Implications
- NDC 51407-0623 holds a significant position, with growth driven by expanded adult vaccination recommendations.
- Price competition may intensify with new entrants or expanded indication approvals.
- Manufacturers should prioritize payer negotiations and educational campaigns to sustain market share.
Key Takeaways
- Vaxneuvance is positioned as an immunogenic, broad-serotype adult pneumococcal vaccine.
- Current prices around $210–$220 per dose are likely to see modest reductions over the next few years.
- Market growth driven by policy updates, increased demand among at-risk populations, and annual healthcare spending increases.
- Competition from legacy vaccines and emerging biosimilars continues to influence pricing.
- Strategic focus on reimbursement pathways offers opportunities for revenue maximization.
FAQs
1. What factors most influence Vaxneuvance’s pricing?
Reimbursement policies, manufacturer negotiations, competitor pricing, and payer demand determine net prices.
2. Will new vaccines impact Vaxneuvance’s market share?
Yes, especially if they offer broader coverage or superior efficacy; market share could shift accordingly.
3. How does public policy affect Vaxneuvance’s demand?
Public health policies endorsing adult vaccination expand target populations, increasing demand.
4. When might generic or biosimilar versions reduce prices?
Likely after patent expiry, expected around 2030–2032, depending on patent application and regulatory decisions.
5. What is the outlook for Vaxneuvance in international markets?
Expansion depends on regulatory approvals, local vaccine policies, and competitive landscape. Price points may differ significantly from US estimates.
References
[1] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2022). Adult Immunization Schedule.
[2] IQVIA. (2022). US Vaccine Market Data.
[3] Merck & Co.. (2021). Vaxneuvance product information.
[4] EvaluatePharma. (2022). Vaccine Market Review.
[5] U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2021). Approval documentation for Vaxneuvance.
