Last updated: February 16, 2026
What is NDC 51407-0602?
NDC 51407-0602 refers to a specific drug marketed by a pharmaceutical company, identified through the National Drug Code (NDC) system. As of 2023, this code corresponds to Ubrogepant, a calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor antagonist approved by the FDA for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura in adults.
Market Size and Demand Dynamics
Ubrogepant's Market Position
- Indication: Acute migraine treatment.
- Market Penetration: Established as an alternative to triptans, capturing approximately 20-25% of the migraine medication market in the U.S. as of 2023.
- Patient Demographics: Estimated 39 million migraine sufferers in the U.S., with roughly 25% experiencing moderate to severe attacks suitable for Ubrogepant use [1].
Competitive Landscape
- Key competitors:
- Triptans (sumatriptan, rizatriptan)
- Lasmiditan (another CGRP receptor agonist)
- Ditans and NSAIDs
- Market share: Ubrogepant holds a niche position, primarily for patients contraindicated for triptans.
Growth Drivers
- Rising awareness of migraine management.
- Prescribing patterns increasingly favor CGRP antagonists.
- Expanding indications for Ubrogepant beyond initial approval if new clinical data emerges.
Market Growth Projections
- The global migraine drugs market was valued at ~$4.2 billion in 2022.
- Expected CAGR (compound annual growth rate): 4-6% through 2030.
- Ubrogepant-specific sales projections vary, with estimates reaching $800 million globally by 2027, driven by increased adoption in the U.S. and Europe.
Regulatory and Reimbursement Environment
- FDA Approval: Approved in 2019.
- Coverage: Medicaid, Medicare, private insurers cover Ubrogepant with varying co-pay structures.
- Pricing policies: Rebates and formularies impact net prices; government programs exert downward pressure.
Price History and Current Pricing
Initial Launch Price:
- US wholesale acquisition cost (WAC): approximately $80–$100 per pill as of 2019.
Recent Trends:
| Year |
WAC per unit |
Notes |
| 2019 |
$80–$100 |
Initial launch prices. |
| 2020–2022 |
$80–$90 |
Stable with slight decreases due to market competition. |
| 2023 |
$75–$85 |
Slight decline driven by payer negotiations. |
Average Wholesale Price (AWP): Typically 20-25% above WAC, with pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) negotiating further rebates.
Price Projections for 2024–2028
Factors Influencing Future Pricing:
- Market penetration: Increased use in unmet patient populations could stabilize or raise prices.
- Competition: Arrival of generics or biosimilars (not applicable here; no biosimilar pathway for small molecules).
- Policy shifts: Price regulation initiatives may limit increases.
- Patent status: Patents provide exclusivity until approximately 2030, influencing pricing power.
| Year |
Expected WAC per unit |
Rationale |
| 2024 |
$70–$80 |
Market saturation, payer negotiations |
| 2025 |
$70–$75 |
Competitive pressures, potential volume increases |
| 2026 |
$65–$75 |
Maturation and stabilizing competition |
| 2027 |
$65–$70 |
Continued market stabilization |
| 2028 |
$60–$70 |
Potential generics entry, further discounts |
Price Sensitivity and Access
- Price reductions are likely as payer negotiations intensify.
- Patient access expands via expanded coverage, but copay assistance programs may buffer net prices.
- Pharma firms might introduce value-based pricing arrangements for wider adoption.
Key Takeaways
- NDC 51407-0602 (Ubrogepant) operates in a competitive migraine market.
- Current WAC: $75–$85 per pill; likely to decline gradually to $60–$70 by 2028 due to payer and market pressures.
- Market size projected to grow moderately, reaching potentially $800 million globally by 2027.
- Pricing strategies will be influenced primarily by reimbursement dynamics and competition, with limited impact from patent expiries until around 2030.
FAQs
1. How does Ubrogepant compare to triptans in pricing?
Ubrogepant's prices are similar to triptans initially but face downward pressure due to insurance negotiations and alternative therapies.
2. Will generic versions affect the price of NDC 51407-0602?
No. As of 2023, no generic Ubrogepant exists, but patent expiration around 2030 could lead to price reductions.
3. What factors could cause prices to rise or fall unexpectedly?
Regulatory changes, new clinical data, patent extensions, or approval of competing drugs could influence pricing.
4. How does reimbursement impact the net price?
Rebates, discounts, and formulary placements reduce actual net prices paid by payers compared to list prices.
5. Are there restrictions on prescribing Ubrogepant?
Yes. It is indicated for acute migraine treatment in adults, with contraindications for patients with certain cardiovascular conditions.
References
- American Migraine Foundation. "Migraine Facts & Figures," 2022.
- IQVIA. "Market Intelligence Data," 2023.
- FDA. "Ubrogepant Approval Documents," 2019.
- EvaluatePharma. "Migraine Drugs Market Outlook," 2023.
