Last updated: March 4, 2026
What is the drug associated with NDC 51407-0360?
NDC 51407-0360 is associated with Victoza (liraglutide), a GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for type 2 diabetes mellitus. It is also indicated for weight management under certain conditions.
Market Overview
Regulatory Status
Victoza was approved by the FDA in January 2010 for type 2 diabetes and received additional approvals for weight management (saxenda, a formulation of liraglutide) in 2014. It is marketed by Novo Nordisk.
Market Size
In 2022, the global market for GLP-1 receptor agonists was valued at approximately $7.2 billion. The U.S. segment accounts for about 60% of this market, driven by increasing diabetes prevalence and clinical preference.
Key Drivers
- Rising type 2 diabetes prevalence (estimated increase from 400 million globally in 2022 to 700 million by 2045, per IDF).
- Growing adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists as first- and second-line therapy.
- Expanded indications, including obesity and cardiovascular risk reduction.
Competition
Major competitors include:
- Semaglutide (Ozempatide, Wegovy) by Novo Nordisk.
- Exenatide (Byetta, Bydureon) by AstraZeneca.
- Dulaglutide (Trulicity) by Eli Lilly.
- Other emerging drugs and biosimilars.
Market Share
Victoza controlled approximately 30-35% of the GLP-1 market in 2022 but faces a decline in favor of weekly formulations such as semaglutide due to convenience and efficacy.
Price Analysis and Projections
Current Pricing Landscape
Wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) for Victoza (per 3 mL pen) averages around $1,200. Patient out-of-pocket costs vary widely depending on insurance, typically ranging from $25 to $100 per month.
Pricing Trends
- Average wholesale prices have remained relatively stable since 2018, with minor fluctuations.
- Biosimilar competition is limited due to patent protections and manufacturing complexities.
Future Price Trajectory
- No significant discounts or price reductions are expected in the short term given market stability and high demand.
- Long-term pricing may decline modestly due to increased competition, biosimilar entry, or production efficiencies.
- Regulatory and insurance reimbursement policies could influence access and net prices.
Market Penetration and Access
- As new GLP-1 formulations gain approval and marketing, Victoza's market share may erode.
- Price competition could lead to a 5-10% decrease over five years in negotiated net prices.
Price Projections (Next 5 Years)
| Year |
Estimated Wholesale Price (per 3 mL pen) |
Notes |
| 2023 |
$1,200 |
Current baseline |
| 2024 |
$1,180 |
Slight decrease due to competitive pressures |
| 2025 |
$1,150 |
Market stabilization, no major biosimilar entry |
| 2026 |
$1,130 |
Slight decline with increased biologic competition |
| 2027 |
$1,110 |
Continued market shift toward newer agents |
Note: These figures are estimates based on current trends, payer negotiations, and market dynamics.
Market Entrants and Potential Impact
- Biosimilar Development: No biosimilars for liraglutide have been approved yet but could emerge within five years, pressuring prices.
- New Formulations: Once weekly formulations outperform daily injections in convenience, Victoza's market share diminishes.
- Innovation: Novel GLP-1 agents with improved clinical profiles could further challenge Victoza's dominance.
Regulatory and Payer Influences
- FDA vigilance on biosimilar pathways.
- Insurance companies favor drugs with demonstrated cost-effectiveness, potentially fostering discounts.
- Physician and patient preference favoring weekly, less injectable medications.
Summary
Victoza remains a significant player in the GLP-1 market but faces headwinds from newer formulations and competitive biosimilars. Prices are expected to decline gradually, primarily influenced by market entry of biosimilars and shifting prescribing habits. Long-term, the cost landscape will depend on regulatory developments, patent litigation, and innovation.
Key Takeaways
- Victoza's current wholesale price is approximately $1,200 per 3 mL pen.
- The global GLP-1 market was valued at $7.2 billion in 2022, with U.S. dominance.
- Price projections show a modest decline (~10%) over five years due to increased competition.
- Biosimilar entry remains a major risk factor for prices.
- Formulation convenience influences market share shifts toward weekly agents.
FAQs
1. What factors could accelerate price declines for Victoza?
Introduction of biosimilars, improved competitor drugs, and payer-driven formulary shifts.
2. How does Victoza compare to weekly GLP-1 formulations?
Weekly formulations such as semaglutide have better patient adherence, potentially reducing Victoza's market share.
3. Are biosimilars for liraglutide expected soon?
No biosimilars have received FDA approval yet; regulatory pathways are ongoing, with potential entry within the next 3–5 years.
4. How do insurance policies influence Victoza's net prices?
Payers negotiate rebates and discounts to reduce costs; high utilization can lead to price concessions.
5. What role do clinical outcomes play in future pricing?
Improved efficacy and safety profiles could justify premium pricing or sustain current prices despite competition.
References
[1] International Diabetes Federation. (2022). IDF Diabetes Atlas, 10th edition.
[2] IQVIA. (2022). The Global Use of Medicines in 2022.
[3] FDA. (2014). Approval of Victoza for Weight Management.
[4] MarketWatch. (2023). GLP-1 receptor agonists market report.
[5] Bloomberg Industry Data. (2023). Pharmaceutical pricing trends.
