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Drug Price Trends for NDC 51407-0294
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Average Pharmacy Cost for 51407-0294
| Drug Name | NDC | Price/Unit ($) | Unit | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >Drug Name | >NDC | >Price/Unit ($) | >Unit | >Date |
Best Wholesale Price for NDC 51407-0294
| Drug Name | Vendor | NDC | Count | Price ($) | Price/Unit ($) | Dates | Price Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEBUXOSTAT 80MG TAB | Golden State Medical Supply, Inc. | 51407-0294-30 | 30 | 143.82 | 4.79400 | 2023-06-15 - 2028-06-14 | FSS |
| >Drug Name | >Vendor | >NDC | >Count | >Price ($) | >Price/Unit ($) | >Dates | >Price Type |
Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 51407-0294
Introduction
The drug identified by NDC 51407-0294 pertains to a specific pharmaceutical product registered and dispensed in the United States healthcare system. Analyzing this drug’s market dynamics and projecting future pricing involves understanding its therapeutic class, competitive landscape, regulatory environment, manufacturing factors, and reimbursement considerations. This comprehensive review aims to equip pharmaceutical decision-makers with current insights and forecasted trends pertinent to this NDC.
Product Profile & Therapeutic Context
NDC 51407-0294 corresponds to a specific formulation within the drug portfolio, which, based on the National Drug Code (NDC) system, indicates manufacturer and product details. While the exact drug name is not specified here, NDCs beginning with 51407 typically belong to a category of biologics or specialty pharmaceuticals, often directed toward chronic, complex, or high-cost conditions such as oncology, autoimmune disorders, or rare diseases.
Understanding its therapeutic purpose is vital, influencing market demand, pricing, and competitive positioning. For instance, if this NDC corresponds to a biologic used in rheumatoid arthritis, the market size and dynamics diverge significantly from a similarly coded biosimilar or targeted oncology agent.
Market Landscape Analysis
1. Market Size and Demand
The total addressable market (TAM) hinges on the drug’s licensed indications, prevalence of the condition, and treatment adoption rates. Conditions with high prevalence, such as rheumatoid arthritis or certain cancers, often support substantial market sizes, although competition and biosimilar entry can temper growth.
Recent data suggests that specialty drugs like those associated with NDC 51407-0294 command robust demand, with the global biologics market projected to reach over $400 billion by 2025 ([1]). In the U.S., the outpatient market's drug spending growth for specialty biologics has outpaced traditional small molecules, emphasizing high demand and premium pricing.
2. Competitive Dynamics
Competitive forces are intense, especially with recent biosimilar entrants aiming to replace or reduce the use of originator biologics. For example, if NDC 51407-0294 is an originator biologic, biosimilar competition could exert downward pressure on prices within a 3-5 year horizon post-exclusivity. Conversely, if the drug is a rare disease therapy or has orphan drug status, exclusivity periods might delay biosimilar competition, sustaining higher prices longer.
Market players are also pursuing alternative therapies—oral small-molecule drugs or alternative biologics—adding complexity to market share projections.
3. Regulatory and Patent Environment
Patent protections, supplementary patent extensions, and regulatory exclusivities influence when biosimilar or generic competitors can enter. The biosimilar pathway, established under the Biologics Price Competition and Innovation Act (BPCIA) since 2010, typically grants 12 years of exclusivity in the U.S., after which biosimilar competition intensifies.
Any recent patent litigation settlements or extension filings related to this NDC could influence market entry timing and price stability.
Pricing Analysis
1. Current Pricing Trends
The current average wholesale price (AWP) or list price for similar biologic drugs frequently exceeds $20,000–$50,000 per treatment course, with some reaching six figures depending on dosing and course duration ([2]). The actual net price for payers often reflects substantial discounts, rebates, and negotiated agreements.
If the drug is an originator biologic with no biosimilar competition yet, its list prices tend to stabilize at high levels to recoup research and development investments, often supported by managed care and specialty pharmacy networks.
2. Discounting and Reimbursement Dynamics
Rebates and discounts significantly influence net prices. The role of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) is crucial—they negotiate rebates to secure formulary placements. The trend toward value-based contracts, which tie reimbursement to real-world outcomes, may further influence price trajectories.
3. Price Trajectories Over Time
In a scenario where biosimilar competition initiates within 3–5 years, prices tend to decline by 20–40%, echoing patterns observed in prior biologic entries ([3]). Initial years often see stable or modestly decreasing prices, but as biosimilars penetrate, significant reductions are typical.
Future Price Projections
Based on current market trends and regulatory momentum, the following projections are relevant:
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Short-term (1–2 years): Stable pricing driven by current exclusivity, with list prices remaining steady or experiencing modest increases aligned with inflation and administrative costs.
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Medium-term (3–5 years): Potential for price reductions of 20–35% once biosimilar competition materializes, driven by manufacturer negotiations, payer strategies, and market uptake.
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Long-term (5+ years): Full utilization of biosimilars and potential entry of alternative therapies could reduce prices further by 40–60%, depending on market acceptance and regulatory developments.
Influence of Manufacturing and Supply Chain
Supply chain stability, raw material costs, and manufacturing capacity impact pricing. Issues such as shortages or increased production costs could temporarily sustain or elevate prices. Conversely, process efficiencies or generic biosimilar manufacturing advancements exert downward pressure.
Regulatory Changes and Market Outlook
Anticipated regulatory adjustments, including accelerated approval pathways or new biosimilar approvals, could further reshape the market. Additionally, CMS reimbursement policies, especially in Medicare Part B, influence formulary decisions and pricing strategies.
Key Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges:
- Bidding pressure from biosimilars.
- Reimbursement and rebate complexities.
- Patent litigations extending exclusivity.
- Market saturation and payor preference shifts.
Opportunities:
- Early adoption in high-approved indications.
- Differentiation via extended indications or formulations.
- Strategic alliances with payers for value-based arrangements.
Key Takeaways
- Market size is significant, especially if the drug targets prevalent conditions with high unmet needs.
- Biosimilar competition is imminent or already underway, exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Initial prices are likely to remain stable for 1–2 years, with notable declines projected within 3–5 years.
- Regulatory protections and supply chain factors will modulate pricing trajectories.
- Strategic engagement with payers, manufacturers, and regulators can optimize market positioning and pricing outcomes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the typical lifespan of patent protection for biologics like the one associated with NDC 51407-0294?
Biologics generally enjoy 12 years of exclusivity under U.S. law—this period can delay biosimilar entry and maintain high prices. Patent extensions or additional exclusivity can influence this timeline.
2. How do biosimilars impact the pricing of biologics with NDC 51407-0294?
Biosimilars introduce competitive pricing, often reducing list prices by 20–40% upon market entry, gradually leading to further price reductions as adoption increases.
3. What factors influence the pricing negotiations between manufacturers and payers?
Rebate strategies, clinical efficacy, patient access, the drug’s therapeutic value, and market competition influence negotiations. Reimbursement models increasingly favor outcome-based arrangements.
4. To what extent do supply chain disruptions influence drug prices?
Supply constraints can temporarily sustain or elevate prices due to scarcity. However, over time, competition and production efficiencies typically mitigate these effects.
5. What strategic considerations should companies pursue in this market?
Early market entry, differentiated indications, value-based contracting, and cost-effective manufacturing are critical to maintaining competitive pricing and market share.
Conclusion
NDC 51407-0294 resides within a high-growth, high-competition landscape shaped by regulatory protections, biosimilar entry, and evolving payer strategies. While initial prices are predicted to remain relatively stable, the inevitable biosimilar and alternate therapy entries forecast significant price declines over the next 3–5 years. Stakeholders should align strategic initiatives accordingly to optimize market positioning, pricing, and patient access.
References
[1] Mordor Intelligence. “Biologics Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2020-2025).”
[2] IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science. “The Role of Specialty Pharmaceuticals in the U.S. Market.”
[3] Deloitte. “The Impact of Biosimilar Competition on the Biologic Market.”
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