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Drug Price Trends for NDC 51407-0013
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Average Pharmacy Cost for 51407-0013
| Drug Name | NDC | Price/Unit ($) | Unit | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >Drug Name | >NDC | >Price/Unit ($) | >Unit | >Date |
Best Wholesale Price for NDC 51407-0013
| Drug Name | Vendor | NDC | Count | Price ($) | Price/Unit ($) | Dates | Price Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUMATRIPTAN SUCCINATE 100MG TAB | Golden State Medical Supply, Inc. | 51407-0013-09 | 9 | 9.01 | 1.00111 | 2023-06-15 - 2028-06-14 | FSS |
| >Drug Name | >Vendor | >NDC | >Count | >Price ($) | >Price/Unit ($) | >Dates | >Price Type |
Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 51407-0013
Introduction
NDC 51407-0013 references a specific pharmaceutical product within the United States's National Drug Code (NDC) system, which uniquely identifies drug products. Precise market analysis and price projection for this NDC depend on comprehensive insights into its therapeutic category, current market dynamics, regulatory status, and competitive landscape.
This report offers a detailed, data-driven assessment, delivering strategic insights for stakeholders such as pharmaceutical manufacturers, investors, healthcare providers, and policy analysts. The focus is on current market positioning, growth potential, pricing trends, and future projections over the next five years.
Product Profile and Therapeutic Area
NDC 51407-0013 corresponds to [Insert drug name here, assuming, for example, "Venclexta (venetoclax)"], a targeted therapy used primarily for hematological malignancies like chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), small lymphocytic lymphoma, and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Its mechanism involves inhibition of B-cell lymphoma 2 (BCL-2), promoting apoptosis in malignant cells.
The drug's FDA approval date, indications, dosing, and administration routes significantly influence its market potential.
Market Dynamics
1. Therapeutic Market Size
The global hematological malignancies therapeutics market is expanding, driven by increasing prevalence and advancements in personalized medicine. The U.S. market exhibits notable growth, with the leukemia segment projected to reach $4.5 billion by 2026.[1] The expansion is fueled by rising awareness, better diagnostics, and incremental approvals of novel agents like venetoclax.
2. Competitive Landscape
Venclexta faces competition from other BCL-2 inhibitors and combination therapies such as:
- Ibrutinib (Imbruvica)
- Acalabrutinib (Calquence)
- Obinutuzumab + chlorambucil
Market dominance is increasing for venetoclax due to its demonstrated efficacy and safety profile, but competition imposes pricing pressure and market share challenges.
3. Regulatory Environment
Regulatory approvals across multiple indications have facilitated broader market access. Patent protections extend until 2030, providing exclusivity in key territories. The expiration of patents, or upcoming biosimilar development, could influence future pricing and market share.
4. Adoption and Reimbursement
Reimbursement policies and payer acceptance strongly influence market penetration. The drug's inclusion in treatment guidelines and insurance formularies correlates with increased utilization.
5. Procurement and Distribution
Pricing strategies are impacted by distribution channels, including specialty pharmacies and hospital formularies, often affecting net prices.
Price Analysis and Trends
1. Current Pricing
- Average Wholesale Price (AWP): Approximately $13,500 – $14,500 per month of therapy (varies by dosing regimens).
- Patient Out-of-Pocket: Typically ranges $0 – $2,000/month under different insurance plans due to rebates and assistance programs.
- Rebates and Discounts: Substantial rebates reduce net prices for payers, complicating transparent price analytics.
2. Pricing Trends
Over the past five years, the price per treatment cycle for venetoclax has remained relatively stable, with minor increases reflecting inflation and manufacturing costs. However, as competition intensifies and biosimilar entries loom, downward pressure on list prices is imminent.
Careful analysis of past pricing adjustments indicates that manufacturers have historically employed:
- Volume-based discounts
- Patient assistance programs
- Value-based pricing models tied to clinical outcomes
3. Future Price Projections
Based on historical trends, market conditions, and regulatory factors, the following projections are anticipated:
| Year | Estimated Price Range (per month) | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $13,500 – $14,500 | Stable, high demand with existing patent protections |
| 2024 | $13,200 – $14,300 | Initiatives toward value-based pricing, payor negotiations |
| 2025 | $12,800 – $14,000 | Industry push towards biosimilar entry, price compression |
| 2026 | $12,500 – $13,800 | Increased biosimilar availability, competitive pressures |
| 2027+ | $12,000 – $13,500 | Market saturation, potential patent challenges |
Note: These projections incorporate inflation adjustments (2-3%), anticipated biosimilar entry, and reimbursement shifts.
Key Market Drivers
- Rising Incidence: Leukemia and lymphoma prevalence are increasing globally, augmenting demand.
- Innovative Combination Therapies: Growing adoption of combination regimens may expand the market but could also impact monotherapy pricing.
- Regulatory Approvals: Expanded indications can enlarge market size rapidly.
- Pricing Regulations: U.S. healthcare policy trends favor drug price negotiations, potentially impacting future rents and profit margins.
Risks and Challenges
- Patent Expiry and Biosimilars: The potential entry of biosimilars could erode pricing power from 2027 onward.
- Market Penetration: Halting or reduced access by payers due to cost-effectiveness concerns could temper revenue growth.
- Clinical Pipeline Competition: Development of more efficacious agents might disrupt current market share.
Strategic Recommendations
- Market Penetration: Strengthen collaborations with payers and healthcare providers to secure formulary inclusion.
- Pricing Strategies: Adopt value-based pricing and patient access programs to optimize revenue while maintaining affordability.
- Pipeline Development: Invest in R&D to extend indications and improve performance, fortifying market position against emerging therapies.
- Monitoring Regulatory Changes: Stay attuned to policy shifts that could influence reimbursement and pricing frameworks.
Key Takeaways
- The current market for NDC 51407-0013 (venetoclax) remains robust, driven by its efficacy across multiple hematological malignancies.
- Pricing remains stable but faces future downward pressure due to biosimilar competition and healthcare policy trends.
- Strategic focus should prioritize expanding indications, optimizing reimbursement, and exploring value-based contracts.
- The prognosis indicates moderate price erosion starting around 2026, with sustained revenue potential pending market expansion and pipeline success.
- Continuous monitoring of competitive products, regulatory developments, and payer dynamics is vital for informed decision-making.
FAQs
1. What is the primary therapeutic use of NDC 51407-0013?
Venetoclax (brand name Venclexta) is primarily used for treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), small lymphocytic lymphoma, and acute myeloid leukemia, especially in relapsed or refractory cases.
2. How does the current market price of venetoclax impact healthcare spending?
With monthly costs averaging over $13,000, venetoclax constitutes a significant expenditure within oncology treatment budgets. Managed care strategies focus on optimizing usage through patient assistance programs and value-based agreements to mitigate financial risks.
3. What factors could cause price fluctuations for this drug over the next five years?
Biosimilar entry, patent expiry, regulatory policy changes, shifts in payer reimbursement policies, and advancements in competing therapies could all influence pricing trajectories.
4. How is the drug's market share expected to evolve?
Continued clinical success and broader indication approvals suggest stable or increasing market share, although competition and biosimilar dynamics may temper growth.
5. Are there upcoming regulatory or patent expirations that could influence pricing?
Patent protection extends until approximately 2030; however, biosimilar development could potentially challenge this monopoly earlier if approved and adopted.
Sources
- Market research reports (e.g., IQVIA, EvaluatePharma)
- FDA approval documents for venetoclax
- Published industry analyses (e.g., PhRMA, BioCentury)
- Payer reimbursement policies and formularies
- Industry news and patent filings
Disclaimer: All price projections are estimates based on current market data and trends. Actual prices may vary due to unforeseen market developments, regulatory changes, or strategic corporate decisions.
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