These are wholesale prices available to the US Federal Government which, by law, must be the best prices available under comparable terms and conditions
Price type key:
Federal Supply Schedule (FSS): generally available to all Federal Govt agencies /
'BIG4' prices: VA, DoD, Public Health & Coast Guard only /
National Contracts (NC): Available to specific agencies
Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 17772-0102
Last updated: February 24, 2026
What is NDC 17772-0102?
NDC 17772-0102 is a prescription drug marketed by Gilead Sciences. It is a fixed-dose combination product containing bictegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide. Primarily, the drug is used for the treatment of HIV-1 infection.
Market Size and Demand Dynamics
Current Market Landscape
Global HIV drug market estimated at $23 billion in 2022.
US market dominated by antiretroviral therapies (ARVs), with Gilead holding approximately 85% share.
NDC 17772-0102, marketed as Biktarvy, accounts for nearly 30% of the US HIV therapy market segment.
Prescribing Trends
Growing HIV prevalence: 1.2 million Americans living with HIV as of 2022.
Treatment adherence targets: 80-85% of diagnosed patients receive consistent therapy.
NDC 17772-0102's advantages include once-daily dosing, high efficacy, and a favorable side effect profile.
Competitive Landscape
Drug Name
Market Share (2022)
Key Features
Price Point (per month)
Biktarvy
30%
Once-daily, high efficacy, tolerability
$3,000 - $3,500
Truvada
20%
Widely used, lower price, filled with tenofovir disoproxil
$2,200 - $2,700
Descovy
15%
Better renal/bone safety profile
$2,500 - $3,000
Other ARVs
35%
Variety, including generics
$1,000 - $2,500
Market Drivers and Constraints
Increasing HIV diagnosis rates.
Advancements reducing pill burden and side effects.
Patent protections until 2030; biosimilar competition remains limited.
Price sensitivity among payers limits maximum permissible pricing.
Price Projections
Short-term (Next 1-2 Years)
Stable pricing around $3,000 per month due to patent exclusivity.
No immediate generic competition anticipated until patent expiration or legal challenges.
Minor price reductions possible as payers negotiate rebates and discounts.
Medium-term (3-5 Years)
Potential for slight price erosion (~5-10%) driven by contract negotiations and market saturation.
Entry of biosimilars or generics post-2030 could drive prices down by 20-30%.
Price ceilings could be influenced by national patent law reforms or policy interventions.
Long-term (Beyond 5 Years)
Substantial price declines expected: 30-50% once biosimilar/generic options gain approval and market share.
Innovation in drug formulations (such as long-acting injectables) might shift demand away from oral fixed-dose combos, affecting original prices.
Regulatory and Policy Factors Impacting Price Trends
Patent protections until 2030 restrict generic entry.
Medicare and Medicaid negotiations can influence pricing strategies.
CDC and FDA guidelines favor increasing use of cost-effective regimens.
Law reforms aiming at reducing drug prices could reshape the market landscape.
Strategic Considerations for Stakeholders
Pharmaceutical companies should plan for patent sunset strategies.
Payers and insurers should leverage negotiations and formulary management to control costs.
Investors should monitor pipeline developments and potential biosimilar entries.
Summary of Key Data Points
Parameter
Current Estimate
Notes
Market Size (global, 2022)
$23 billion
HIV sector overall
US HIV treatment market share
$6-7 billion
Gilead holds ~85%
NDC 17772-0102’s US market share
30% of HIV therapy segment
Biktarvy sales dominance
Monthly price
$3,000 - $3,500
Stable, patent-protected
Patent expiration
2030
Patent protections sustain current pricing
Conclusions
Short-term pricing remains stable due to patent protections and monopole status.
Medium-term expects modest price decline as contracts become more competitive.
Long-term forecasts significant price drops following patent expiry and biosimilar entry.
Key Takeaways
NDC 17772-0102 (Biktarvy) dominates US HIV treatment with a high market share.
Prices are expected to stay around current levels through 2030, barring policy changes.
Post-2030, biosimilars and generics could reduce prices by up to 50%.
The HIV treatment landscape shifts toward long-acting formulations, potentially impacting the drug’s market share.
Payers and stakeholders should build strategies considering patent timelines and evolving treatment protocols.
FAQs
When is patent expiration expected for NDC 17772-0102?
Patent protections extend until 2030.
How can biosimilars influence the market after patent expiry?
Biosimilars can provide lower-cost alternatives, reducing prices by 20-50%.
What are the main competitors of Biktarvy?
Truvada and Descovy are key competitors, with alternative formulations and safety profiles.
Will price reductions occur before patent expiration?
Minor reductions may stem from negotiations, rebates, and formulary discounts.
How is the market adapting to long-acting HIV treatments?
Long-acting injectables are gaining approval, potentially decreasing reliance on daily oral therapies like Biktarvy.
References
[1] IQVIA. (2022). HIV drugs market report. IQVIA Insights.
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