Last updated: March 12, 2026
What is the Drug and Its Indication?
NDC 00904-6727 is a prescription medication identified as a combination of bupropion and naltrexone, commercially marketed as Contrave. Approved by the FDA in 2014, Contrave is indicated for weight management in adults with a BMI of 30 or higher, or 27 or higher with comorbid conditions such as hypertension, type 2 diabetes, or dyslipidemia.
Market Overview
Current Market Size
- The global obesity treatment market was valued at approximately $3.2 billion in 2022.
- The U.S. accounts for roughly 75% of this market.
- Leading drugs include semaglutide (Wegovy, Ozempic), liraglutide (Saxenda), and phentermine-topiramate (Qsymia).
Competition Landscape
| Drug Name |
Year Approved |
Indication |
Weekly Prescriptions (2022) |
Market Share (%) |
| Contrave |
2014 |
Weight management |
1.2 million |
6 |
| Wegovy (semaglutide) |
2021 |
Obesity |
2.8 million |
14 |
| Saxenda (liraglutide) |
2014 |
Obesity |
2.4 million |
12 |
| Qsymia |
2012 |
Obesity |
1.5 million |
7 |
Regulatory and Reimbursement Factors
- The drug benefits from FDA approval.
- Insurance coverage varies; Medicaid and Medicare often have restrictions.
- Brand-name pricing remains high, with monthly costs around $250–$300.
- PBMs favor higher-efficacy drugs; Contrave may face formulary barriers.
Price Projections
Historical Pricing Data
- Average wholesale price (AWP): $250–$290 per month.
- Real-world patient co-payments: $30–$60/month with insurance.
- No significant recent price reductions for Contrave.
Short-term Forecast (Next 1–2 Years)
- Market saturation limits rapid growth.
- Pricing remains stable unless new formulations or competitors emerge.
- Anticipate slight reductions of 2–5% due to competitive pressures and payer negotiations.
Long-term Market Trends (Next 5 Years)
- Entry of agents with superior efficacy (e.g., semaglutide-based therapies).
- Potential for biosimilar or generic versions if patents expire or litigation resolves.
- Price erosion expected in the range of 10–20% over five years, aligning with trends in obesity pharmacotherapy.
Factors Impacting Future Pricing
- Patent expiration: Currently, patent protection extends until at least 2029.
- Regulatory changes: Push for cost-effective treatments may pressure prices downward.
- Market penetration: Increasing adoption in broader populations may sustain revenue but not significantly influence per-unit prices.
- New formulations: Extended-release or combination products could alter pricing dynamics.
Revenue Projections
- Using conservative sales estimates of 1.2 million prescriptions annually and an average net price of $240/month:
| Year |
Prescriptions |
Revenue ($ millions) |
| 2023 |
1.2 million |
3,456 |
| 2024 |
1.3 million |
3,744 |
| 2025 |
1.4 million |
4,032 |
| 2026 |
1.5 million |
4,320 |
| 2027 |
1.6 million |
4,608 |
- Price erosion assumptions lead to decreasing margins but steady volume growth.
Summary and Strategic Considerations
- The market for NDC 00904-6727 remains competitive but is limited by higher efficacy alternatives and regulatory landscape.
- Price stability persists in the short term, with gradual erosion over mid-term due to generic entry and competition.
- Companies pursuing this market should focus on formulary access improvements, patient adherence strategies, and pipeline enhancements.
Key Takeaways
- NDC 00904-6727 (Contrave) is a small but established segment within the obesity pharmacotherapy market.
- Current pricing averages around $240/month, with minimal fluctuations expected shortly.
- Long-term price declines are likely aligned with patent expiration and increased competition.
- Market growth is driven mainly by ongoing obesity prevalence, not significant price increases.
- Developers should monitor regulatory changes and competitors' efficacy developments to adapt pricing strategies.
FAQs
-
What factors could cause Contrave’s price to decrease more rapidly?
Entry of generic versions, regulatory price control measures, or a shift toward more effective therapies could accelerate price declines.
-
How does Contrave compare price-wise to other obesity drugs?
It is generally priced lower than newer agents like semaglutide but higher than some older drugs or generics.
-
What is the potential for new formulations to influence pricing?
Extended-release forms may command premium pricing; combination therapies could improve adherence but may also increase costs.
-
Are insurance plans likely to expand coverage for Contrave?
Coverage depends on formulary decisions that weigh efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness, which currently favor high-efficacy agents.
-
When might patent expiration impact price and market share?
Patent expiration around 2029 could result in generic entry and significant price reductions, impacting revenue streams.
References
[1] MarketWatch. (2023). Global Obesity Treatment Market Report.
[2] FDA. (2014). Approval letter for Contrave.
[3] IQVIA. (2022). Prescription Data for Obesity Medications.
[4] Health Economics. (2022). Cost of Obesity Pharmacotherapies.
[5] Pharma Intelligence. (2022). Competitive Landscape in Obesity Drugs.
