Introduction
The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing significant changes driven by various factors including regulatory updates, technological advancements, and shifting market demands. This article will delve into the current market analysis and price projections for the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on the implications for a specific drug identified by its National Drug Code (NDC) 00113-0541.
Global Pharmaceutical Market Trends
The global pharmaceutical market is expected to experience robust growth in the coming years. According to Atradius, global pharmaceutical output is forecast to increase by 3% in 2024, 4% in 2025, and 3.6% in 2026, driven by ageing populations, emerging markets, and the demand for new products[3].
Regional Growth
- The Asia Pacific and Middle East regions are anticipated to have the largest annual growth rates.
- In the United States, pharmaceutical output is expected to increase by 2.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, driven by an ageing population and a surge in demand for weight-loss drugs[3].
Specialty Pharmaceuticals and Price Projections
Specialty pharmaceuticals, which include drugs for high-cost, complex, or chronic conditions, are a significant driver of market growth and price increases.
Vizient's Pharmacy Market Outlook
Vizient projects a 3.8% increase in drug prices, the highest since July 2019, largely driven by specialty pharmaceuticals. Specialty medications, including those for cancer, infectious diseases, autoimmune conditions, and pulmonary diseases, are expected to see a price increase of 4.18% in 2024[2].
Impact on Specific Drugs
While the NDC 00113-0541 is not specifically mentioned in these projections, drugs within the specialty category are likely to follow similar trends. The increasing utilization of weight loss drugs and the anticipated expansion of gene therapies will further drive up costs.
Drug Pricing in the United States
The United States has some of the highest prescription drug prices globally. Research by ASPE found that U.S. prescription drug prices were 2.78 times higher than those in 33 other countries and 5.5 times higher than the OECD average (excluding the U.S.)[4].
Price Comparison
- The average price per unit in the U.S. was 7.7 times higher than in the rest of the world (excluding the U.S.).
- Between 2017 and 2022, the U.S. saw an average price increase of 14%, while prices in other regions decreased[4].
National Drug Code (NDC) and System Implications
The NDC system, crucial for tracking and managing pharmaceuticals, is facing a significant change due to the depletion of current NDC numbers.
FDA's NDC Update
The FDA is running out of NDC numbers, necessitating a structural overhaul. This change will impact nearly every system involved in pharmaceutical manufacturing, distribution, and pharmacy operations, similar to the Y2K preparations[5].
Biosimilars and Market Share
Biosimilars, which are biologic products that are highly similar to an already approved biologic product, are expected to grow in market share.
Vizient's Insights
Biosimilars made up 24.93% of the purchasing volume for originator products and their corresponding biosimilars in Vizient's pharmacy program. While biosimilars are expected to increase in price by only 0.55%, they are likely to gain market share, especially as pharmacy benefit managers finalize their formulary strategies[2].
Regulatory Environment
The regulatory environment is another critical factor influencing drug prices and market dynamics.
Government Initiatives
The U.S. government has taken steps to reduce pharmaceutical prices for consumers. However, these measures could impact the industry's margins and overall performance[3].
Industry Expert Insights
Industry experts emphasize the importance of managing pharmacy expenditures and strengthening the supply chain.
"Managing pharmacy expenditures and strengthening the supply chain is more important than ever," said Carina Dolan, associate vice president, clinical oncology, pharmacoeconomics and market insights, Vizient[2].
Key Takeaways
- Global Growth: The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow robustly, driven by ageing populations and emerging markets.
- Specialty Pharmaceuticals: Specialty drugs are driving price increases, with a projected 4.18% increase in 2024.
- U.S. Pricing: U.S. prescription drug prices are significantly higher than global averages.
- NDC System: The NDC system is undergoing a significant change due to the depletion of current numbers.
- Biosimilars: Biosimilars are expected to increase in market share, particularly as formulary strategies are finalized.
- Regulatory Environment: Government initiatives to reduce drug prices could impact industry margins.
FAQs
What is the projected growth rate for the global pharmaceutical market in 2024?
The global pharmaceutical market is forecast to grow by 3% in 2024[3].
Why are specialty pharmaceuticals driving up drug prices?
Specialty pharmaceuticals, which treat high-cost, complex, or chronic conditions, are seeing increased utilization and approvals, leading to higher prices[2].
How do U.S. prescription drug prices compare to global averages?
U.S. prescription drug prices are 2.78 times higher than those in 33 other countries and 5.5 times higher than the OECD average (excluding the U.S.)[4].
What is the impact of the NDC system change on the pharmaceutical industry?
The change in the NDC system will impact nearly every system involved in pharmaceutical manufacturing, distribution, and pharmacy operations, requiring significant updates and recoding[5].
How are biosimilars expected to affect the market?
Biosimilars are expected to increase in market share, particularly as pharmacy benefit managers finalize their formulary strategies, despite a modest price increase of 0.55%[2].
What regulatory measures are being taken to address high drug prices in the U.S.?
The U.S. government has taken steps to reduce pharmaceutical prices for consumers, which could impact industry margins and overall performance[3].
Sources
- CMS: Drug Name and National Drug Code (NDC) Reference Data Instructions Calendar Year 2024.
- Vizient: Vizient Projects 3.8% Drug Price Increase Driven by Specialty Pharmaceuticals.
- Atradius: Industry Trends Pharmaceuticals September 2024.
- ASPE: ISSUE BRIEF - International Market Size and Prices.
- Wolters Kluwer: Are You Prepared for a Major Industry Change to the National Drug Code (NDC) Number?
Last updated: 2024-12-31
