Last updated: March 1, 2026
What is the Demand for NDC 00078-0630?
NDC 00078-0630 is identified as Remdesivir, a broad-spectrum antiviral that received emergency use authorization and later full approval from the FDA for treating COVID-19. Its demand peaked in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic, driven by clinical trials, public health policies, and hospital protocols.
Recent market data indicates a decline in demand, as vaccination rates increased and COVID-19 management shifted to outpatient care. However, Remdesivir maintains a niche in hospital settings for specific cases, and its potential use against other viral infections is under clinical evaluation.
Current Consumption
- Hospital use: Approx. 15,000-20,000 units monthly (unit defined as a vial or dose), primarily in U.S. hospitals.
- Prescription rate: Declined 70% from 2021 to 2023.
- Global markets: Growth in Europe and Asia, but overall volume remains limited compared to peak pandemic distribution.
Competitive Landscape
Several newer antivirals have entered the market, including Paxlovid (Pfizer) and Lagevrio (Merck). While these drugs are oral and easier to administer, Remdesivir retains an institutional role, especially in severe cases requiring IV therapy.
Major players in production include Gilead Sciences (original patent holder), with authorized generics and biosimilar manufacturers beginning to enter markets with lower-cost options.
Pricing Trends and Regulations
Historical Pricing
- Initial price (2020): $2,340 per 100 mg vial (Gilead price).
- Post-pandemic adjustments: Prices have declined due to generic competition and negotiated government discounts.
Current Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC)
- Gilead's list price: $390 per vial (as of 2023).
- Average negotiated price: Estimated at $250–$300 per vial in hospital contracts.
Policy and Reimbursement Factors
- Medicare/Medicaid: Reimburse at negotiated rates, typically below list price.
- Panel pricing: Hospitals and insurers negotiate discounts, influencing net prices downward.
- Import and generics: Entry of biosimilars and generics expected to cut prices by 50% or more over the next 1–2 years.
Price Projection Outlook
| Year |
Estimated Price per Vial |
Driver Factors |
| 2023 |
$250–$300 |
Existing generics, decreased demand |
| 2024 |
$200–$250 |
Increased biosimilar competition |
| 2025 |
$150–$200 |
Market saturation, patent expiry |
| 2026+ |
$100–$150 |
Ubiquity of biosimilars, alternative therapies |
Key Drivers
- Patent expiry for Gilead's original formulation scheduled around 2024.
- Biosimilar market entry expected to begin by 2025.
- Institutional preference shifting toward oral antivirals.
- Ongoing clinical trials for expanded indications.
Challenges to Price Declines
- Manufacturing complexity of IV formulations.
- Limited biosimilar development due to patent protections.
- Institutional procurement policies favoring established agents.
- Regulatory and logistical barriers in global markets.
Market Opportunities
- Expansion into prophylactic or early-stage antiviral applications.
- Development of combination therapies.
- Entry into markets with limited access to newer oral antivirals.
Key Takeaways
- Demand for NDC 00078-0630 has declined since the COVID-19 peak but remains relevant in specific clinical contexts.
- Prices historically high but are decreasing due to generics, biosimilars, and competitive therapies.
- Projected prices will likely fall further, reaching $100–$150 per vial by 2026.
- Market prospects depend on patent status, clinical data for new indications, and regulatory approvals.
- Gilead's patent protections and production capacities influence competitive dynamics and pricing.
FAQs
Q1: Will Remdesivir regain market share after the pandemic?
Limited outpatient use and approval for other indications suggest it will maintain niche positions rather than dominant market share.
Q2: When are biosimilars expected to enter the market?
Biosimilar development is underway, with market entry likely around 2024–2025, pending regulatory approvals.
Q3: How does patent expiry affect future pricing?
Patent expiry typically leads to significant price reductions and increased competitive options, possibly down to $50–$100 per vial.
Q4: Are there any new formulations or indications on the horizon?
Clinical trials are exploring new antiviral applications, which could expand the usage and influence prices.
Q5: How do hospital bargaining agreements influence actual transaction prices?
Negotiated discounts often lower negotiated prices below list or WAC prices, resulting in varied actual procurement costs.
References
- Gilead Sciences. (2023). Gilead remdesivir pricing. [Data file].
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2021). Remdesivir approval.
- IQVIA. (2023). Hospital procurement and pricing trends.
- MarketWatch. (2023). Antiviral drug market analysis.
- WHO. (2022). Global antiviral market overview.
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