Last updated: March 23, 2026
What is NDC 58657-0505?
NDC 58657-0505 refers to Drogosba (Dulaglutide), a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist approved in the U.S. for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Developed by Eli Lilly, it is marketed as Trulicity.
Market Size and Growth Drivers
Current Market Overview
The GLP-1 receptor agonist segment, driven by drugs such as Trulicity, Ozempic (semaglutide), and Mounjaro (tirzepatide), reached $10.9 billion in U.S. sales in 2022, with Trulicity accounting for approximately 25% of the market share.
Competitive Position
Trulicity’s market share has experienced relative stability due to its established efficacy, dosing convenience (once-weekly), and broad insurance coverage. However, newer agents like Mounjaro exhibit rapid growth, impacting Trulicity’s market share.
Growth Factors
- Rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes: estimates project over 700 million cases worldwide by 2045.
- Insulin and GLP-1 therapies increasingly recommended as first-line treatments.
- Shift toward injectable drugs with better weight loss profiles.
- Potential for expanded indications into obesity treatment, pending approval.
Regional Variations
- U.S.: Dominates sales owing to high prescribing rates and insurance coverage.
- Europe and Asia-Pacific: Growing adoption but limited by pricing and reimbursement barriers.
Pricing and Reimbursement Landscape
Current Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC) and List Price
- The average list price for Trulicity (as of early 2023): approximately $900–$950 per month, with annual costs around $10,800–$11,400.
- After rebates and insurance adjustments, patient out-of-pocket costs typically range from $25–$50 per month.
Price Comparison with Competitors
| Drug |
Typical Annual Cost |
Dosing Frequency |
Market Share (2022) |
| Trulicity (dulaglutide) |
~$11,000 |
Once weekly |
25% |
| Ozempic (semaglutide) |
~$12,300 |
Once weekly |
20% |
| Mounjaro (tirzepatide) |
~$13,000 |
Once weekly |
10% (rapid growth) |
Reimbursement Policies
Reimbursement varies by country, with stronger coverage in the U.S. under Medicare and private insurers. Europe and Asia-Pacific face cost constraints, influencing prescribing patterns and uptake.
Price Projections (2023–2028)
Market Trends
- Moderate Price Stability (2023–2024): List prices likely to remain flat as companies focus on expanding volume through patient access programs.
- Potential Price Increases (2025+): Up to 3–5%, driven by inflation, manufacturing costs, and approval of new indications.
- Generic and Biosimilar Entry: No biosimilar competition for Trulicity expected before 2030 due to patent protections, but biosimilar GLP-1s could influence pricing.
Revenue Projections
| Year |
Projected U.S. Sales |
Major Factors |
| 2023 |
~$2.7 billion |
Sustained demand, stable pricing |
| 2024 |
~$2.8 billion |
Slight growth due to expanded insurance coverage |
| 2025 |
~$3.1 billion |
Price hikes, increased penetration in obesity markets |
| 2026 |
~$3.3 billion |
Entry into new markets, expanded indications |
| 2027 |
~$3.5 billion |
Market saturation, generic competition still limited |
Key Assumptions
- No significant price discounts or rebates from payers.
- Continued approval of expanded indications.
- No biosimilar entry before 2030.
Risks and Challenges
- Pricing pressure from biosimilars or new entrants.
- Regulation changes impacting reimbursement.
- Market saturation in major regions.
- Generics/biosimilars potentially suppressing prices in the long term.
Key Takeaways
- Trulicity dominates the GLP-1 space but faces competition from newer agents with rapid growth potential.
- Pricing is expected to remain stable through 2024, with moderate increases thereafter.
- The total market is projected to reach over $14 billion globally by 2028.
- Market entry of biosimilars or alternative therapies could pressure prices starting in the late 2020s.
- Region-specific reimbursement policies critically influence sales and price evolution.
FAQs
1. How does the current pricing compare to other GLP-1 therapies?
Trulicity’s list price rivals Ozempic, with slight variations. Actual patient costs are lower due to rebates and insurance discounts.
2. What factors could influence future price increases?
Increased demand, expanded indications, inflation, and minimal biosimilar competition will support moderate hikes.
3. When might biosimilars impact Trulicity’s pricing?
Biosimilar GLP-1 receptor agonists could enter the market around 2030, potentially reducing prices.
4. Are there regional differences in drug pricing?
Yes, U.S. prices are higher due to market dynamics and reimbursement policies. Europe and Asia have price controls impacting margins.
5. What is the outlook for non-U.S. markets?
Growth is slower; pricing and reimbursement limitations temper expansion but still represent significant long-term opportunities.
References
- IQVIA. (2023). Pharmaceutical Market Trends.
- EvaluatePharma. (2022). Global Sales Forecast 2023–2028.
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2017). Drug Approvals and Indications.
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. (2022). Reimbursement Policies for Diabetes Drugs.
- MarketWatch. (2023). Pricing Trends for GLP-1 Receptor Agonists.
