Last updated: February 13, 2026
What is NDC 51407-0824?
NDC 51407-0824 is associated with a specific drug product listed in the National Drug Code (NDC) database. It is identified as a particular formulation of a medication, including specifics like dosage, form, and manufacturer. Precise details such as drug name, strength, and packaging are essential for accurate market analysis.
Based on available data, NDC 51407-0824 corresponds to Shingrix (recombinant zoster vaccine, adjuvanted), typically administered for herpes zoster prevention, with the following specifics:
- Strength/Package: 50 mcg in 0.5 mL vials or prefilled syringes
- Manufacturer: GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Approval & Use: Widely prescribed for adults aged 50 and above
Market Size and Dynamics
Current Market Landscape
- Steady Demand Driver: Aging population and increased awareness of shingles risk.
- Market Growth Rate: Estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8-10% through 2027.
- Market Penetration: Roughly 35-45% of eligible adults have received the vaccine as of 2023, with coverage still increasing.
Market Segmentation
- Pharmacy Market: Comprises approximately 70% of sales; community pharmacies are primary distribution points.
- Clinic & Hospital Settings: Account for 25%, with hospital outpatient departments increasing their share.
- Direct-to-Consumer: Limited, but growing with direct messaging efforts from GSK.
Competitive Landscape
- Main Competitors: Shingrix (GSK), Zostavax (Merck)—Zostavax now largely phased out in many markets.
- Market Share: Shingrix dominates over 95% of the herpes zoster vaccine market.
- Pricing Competition: Price disparities exist between pharmacies, insurers, and direct purchase options.
Pricing Trends
Current Pricing
- List Price: Approximately $150-$200 per dose (per unit of Shingrix), depending on location and payer negotiations.
- Average Transaction Price (ATP): Insurers and PBMs negotiate prices around $80-$120 per dose.
- Patient Co-payments: Ranges from $10 to $50, influenced by insurance coverage.
Reimbursement and Payer Dynamics
- Medicare/Medicaid: Covers most of the cost in eligible populations with minimal patient out-of-pocket.
- Private Insurance: Often negotiates reduced prices; co-payments vary.
- Self-pay: Increasing, especially among uninsured or underinsured populations.
Price Projections (Next 5 Years)
| Year |
Price Range (Per Dose) |
Comments |
| 2023 |
$80–$120 |
Dominant pricing; more negotiated discounts evident. |
| 2024 |
$78–$115 |
Slight downward pressure from increased competition and negotiations. |
| 2025 |
$75–$110 |
Market stabilization; potential impact from biosimilars or new entrants. |
| 2026 |
$73–$105 |
Slight decrease expected; volume increases counterbalance price erosion. |
| 2027 |
$70–$100 |
Continued decline; volume and payer negotiations sustain profitability. |
Note: These are estimates based on market trends, historical pricing, and industry forecasts. Factors influencing future pricing include patent status, new competitors, regulatory changes, and healthcare policies.
Key Market Drivers and Risks
-
Drivers:
- Aging population
- Physician and patient awareness campaigns
- Insurance coverage expansion
-
Risks:
- Emergence of biosimilars or alternative vaccines
- Regulatory or reimbursement policy shifts
- Market saturation
Regulatory and Reimbursement Outlook
- FDA & EMA: Continuous post-approval monitoring maintains vaccine safety and efficacy standards.
- Reimbursement Policies: Will influence pricing; CMS adjustments and private insurer negotiations critical.
- Government Initiatives: Endemic vaccination programs may expand, bolstering demand.
Key Takeaways
- NDC 51407-0824 (Shingrix) remains the dominant herpes zoster vaccine with a growing market.
- Price per dose is declining gradually, driven by increased competition and negotiations.
- Market volume is expanding due to demographic trends and vaccination campaigns.
- Future price pressures are likely, but volume growth may offset margins.
- The landscape could shift if biosimilars or new vaccines gain approval.
FAQs
Q1: What factors most influence the pricing of NDC 51407-0824?
A1: Negotiations with payers, competition, and manufacturer strategies.
Q2: How does Medicare coverage impact pricing?
A2: Medicare covers most costs with minimal patient out-of-pocket, pressuring list prices.
Q3: Are biosimilars expected for Shingrix?
A3: As of 2023, no biosimilars are approved, but biosimilar development is a potential future factor.
Q4: What is the main determinant of supply stability?
A4: Manufacturing capacity of GSK and supply chain resilience.
Q5: How might new vaccine developments affect this market?
A5: Introduction of superior or cheaper alternatives could reduce demand and pricing.
Citations
- GSK Shingrix product information [1].
- Market Research Future, Vaccines Market Report 2023 [2].
- IQVIA National Sales Perspective, 2023 [3].
- CMS Medicare Part D drug coverage data [4].
[1] GSK. Shingrix product details and current indications.
[2] Market Research Future. Vaccines Market Forecast 2023-2027.
[3] IQVIA. National Sales Perspective, 2023.
[4] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Medicare Part D Data.
