Last updated: February 21, 2026
What is NDC 51407-0642?
NDC 51407-0642 is a specific formulation of metformin, a widely used oral antihyperglycemic agent approved for type 2 diabetes management. The product is manufactured by X-brand Pharmaceuticals and is available as a generic drug with a 500 mg, immediate-release tablet formulation.
Market landscape
Current Market Size
The global diabetes medication market was valued at approximately USD 59 billion in 2022. It is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% through 2030, driven by increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes and aging populations in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.
Market share of metformin
Metformin holds the largest market share among oral antidiabetics, estimated at 60% of the total oral diabetes drug sales globally. The drug's cost-effectiveness, safety profile, and long-term impact on microvascular and macrovascular outcomes sustain its dominance.
Competitive landscape
Major competitors include:
- Glucophage (brand name, Pfizer)
- Fortamet (Janssen)
- Glumetza (Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma)
Generic equivalents like NDC 51407-0642 face price competition primarily from other generics and branded products.
Regulatory environment
FDA approval enables initial commercialization, but state-level pricing, insurance reimbursement policies, and patent expirations influence market penetration. The patent for the branded version expired in 2002, leading to a proliferation of generics, including NDC 51407-0642.
Price analysis
Historical pricing
- Brand name (Glucophage): Average wholesale price (AWP) per 500 mg tablet ranges from USD 0.25 to USD 0.35.
- Generics (including NDC 51407-0642): AWP ranges from USD 0.10 to USD 0.25 per tablet.
Market adoption trends
Generic utilization has increased, reducing prices due to competition. Insurance coverage and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) favor lower-cost generics, which further constrains pricing.
Projected price trajectory (next 5 years)
| Year |
Estimated AWP per 500 mg tablet |
Factors affecting price |
| 2023 |
USD 0.13 - USD 0.17 |
Stable generics presence, patent expiry effects |
| 2024 |
USD 0.12 - USD 0.16 |
Increased competition, supply chain stabilization |
| 2025 |
USD 0.11 - USD 0.15 |
Market saturation, Payer negotiations |
| 2026 |
USD 0.10 - USD 0.14 |
Potential further price cuts, demand decline |
| 2027 |
USD 0.10 |
Market stabilization, no new significant entrants |
Price drivers
- Generic competition: Entry of new generics sustains price pressure.
- Manufacturing costs: Remaining stable but can influence pricing if raw material prices fluctuate.
- Regulatory environment: No significant new regulations expected to impact prices imminently.
- Market demand: Continues to grow with diabetic population; however, insulin and newer agents may shift some demand away.
Revenue projections
Assuming the following:
- Market share of NDC 51407-0642: 10%
- Annual consumption: 50 million tablets (based on annual prescriptions for generic metformin)
- Average price: USD 0.14 per tablet (median estimate for 2023)
Estimated annual revenue:
50 million tablets × USD 0.14 = USD 7 million
Growth assumptions:
- Slight market share increase to 12% by 2027
- Stable or declining average price
2027 revenue estimate:
(50 million × 1.2) tablets × USD 0.10 (lower price) = USD 6 million
strategic considerations
- Pricing pressure: High due to generic competition
- Market penetration: Tied to physician prescribing habits and insurance formularies
- Regulatory changes: Limited near-term impact expected
Key Takeaways
- NDC 51407-0642 is a generic metformin marketed in a fiercely competitive landscape.
- The global diabetes market offers steady growth but exerts downward pressure on prices for generics.
- Price projections suggest declining average prices over the next five years, with revenue stabilizing around USD 6-7 million annually under current assumptions.
- Market share gains are limited by competing generics, and price competition is driven mainly by payer negotiations and market saturation.
- Future growth depends on broader diabetes prevalence trends and possible shifts to newer agents.
FAQs
-
What factors influence metformin prices?
Generic competition, manufacturing costs, market demand, regulatory policies, and payer negotiations.
-
How does patent expiration affect market competition?
It opens the market to generic manufacturers, increasing supply and reducing prices.
-
What is the typical price range for NDC 51407-0642?
Average wholesale price ranges from USD 0.10 to USD 0.25 per 500 mg tablet.
-
Can market share increase for this product?
Yes, through physician prescribing habits, formulary placement, and population growth.
-
What is the primary risk for profit margins?
Price erosion caused by increased generic competition and payer/billing pressures.
References
[1] MarketsandMarkets. (2023). Diabetes Therapeutics Market.
[2] U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2022). List of Approved Drugs.
[3] IQVIA. (2022). Prescription Drug Market Data and Analytics.
