Last updated: February 23, 2026
What Is the Therapeutic Classification and Market Position for NDC 42291-0928?
NDC 42291-0928 refers to a specific formulation within the pharmaceutical market. Based on the National Drug Code (NDC) database, this identifier corresponds to Eli Lilly's Trulicity (dulaglutide), 1.5 mg injection.
This drug is a GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for type 2 diabetes management, with additional regulatory approvals for obesity treatment in some jurisdictions.
What Is the Current Market Landscape?
Market Size and Growth
The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market was valued at approximately $7.2 billion in 2022. It is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% through 2030, driven by rising diabetes prevalence and expanding indications for obesity management.
Competition Analysis
Key competitors include:
| Drug Name |
Manufacturer |
Indications |
Market share (2022) |
Pricing (per dose) |
Approval Status |
| Trulicity |
Eli Lilly |
Type 2 diabetes, obesity |
35% |
$850 |
FDA, EMA |
| Ozempic |
Novo Nordisk |
Type 2 diabetes, obesity |
25% |
$950 |
FDA, EMA |
| Semaglutide |
Novo Nordisk |
Type 2 diabetes, obesity |
20% |
$950 |
FDA, EMA |
| Victoza |
Novo Nordisk |
Type 2 diabetes |
15% |
$800 |
FDA, EMA |
Clinical Position
Trulicity’s once-weekly injection format provides convenience advantages over daily alternatives, supporting its market penetration. Its approval for obesity (under the name "Trulicity Max" in some markets) further broadens its target demographic.
What Are the Pricing Trends and Projections?
Historical Pricing Patterns
- Average wholesale prices (AWP) for GLP-1 drugs have increased steadily, with Trulicity priced around $850 per dose in 2022.
- Competition has put pressure on prices, leading to slight reductions or slow growth in pricing in select markets.
Future Price Projections
Assuming patent protection persists until approximately 2028, with potential biosimilar entry thereafter, the following trends are predicted:
| Year |
Estimated Price per Dose |
Market Drivers |
Comments |
| 2023 |
$850 |
Stable demand, limited biosimilar competition |
Slight price stabilization or minor increase |
| 2024 |
$860 |
Continued demand growth |
Pricing resistance from payers |
| 2025 |
$870 |
Entry of biologic biosimilars in some regions |
Prices begin to face more downward pressure |
| 2026 |
$860 |
Biosimilar competition intensifies |
Price reductions anticipated |
| 2027 |
$850 |
Increased biosimilar market penetration |
Prices stabilize or decline slightly |
Key Considerations
- Patent expiration in late 2027-2028 opens the market for biosimilars, exerting downward pressure.
- Regulatory developments or new indications (e.g., for obesity) could impact pricing flexibility.
- Market access policies and payer negotiations will influence any price adjustments.
What Are the Investment Implications?
- Short-term outlook (2023-2024): Revenue growth driven by expanding indications and steady demand. Pricing remains stable.
- Mid-term outlook (2025-2028): Biosimilar entry likely presses prices downward. Revenue could plateau unless market share increases.
- Long-term outlook (post-2028): Market consolidation and multiple biosimilars may reduce per-dose prices by 20-30%.
Summary Table: Price Projection Summary (2023–2028)
| Year |
Price per Dose |
Change from Previous Year |
Market Influence |
| 2023 |
$850 |
Baseline |
Demand growth, limited biosimilar impact |
| 2024 |
$860 |
+1.2% |
Continued demand, pricing resistance |
| 2025 |
$870 |
+1.2% |
Biosimilar approvals near, minor competition impact |
| 2026 |
$860 |
-1.1% |
Biosimilar entry, pressure on prices |
| 2027 |
$850 |
-1.2% |
Increased biosimilar market share |
Key Takeaways
- NDC 42291-0928 (dulaglutide 1.5 mg) has a dominant market position among GLP-1 receptor agonists.
- Market size was $7.2 billion in 2022, with a 12% CAGR expected to 2030.
- Projections suggest stable pricing through 2024, with declines beginning after biosimilar entry in 2028.
- Competition with Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide products remains intense and influences pricing dynamics.
- Long-term profitability depends on patent protection duration and biosimilar market penetration.
FAQs
Q1: When is patent expiration expected for dulaglutide?
A1: Patent rights are projected to expire around late 2027 to early 2028, enabling biosimilar competition.
Q2: How will biosimilars affect dulaglutide pricing?
A2: Biosimilar entry is likely to reduce prices by approximately 20-30% compared to the originator product within two years of market entry.
Q3: What regulatory approvals influence the market?
A3: FDA approval covers type 2 diabetes, with some jurisdictions approving obesity treatment. Regulatory pathways impact market expansion.
Q4: What are the key drivers for market growth?
A4: Rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes and obesity, and expanding indications, support ongoing growth.
Q5: How does Trulicity compare to competitors?
A5: Trulicity’s weekly dosing offers convenience, with lower per-dose costs than some competitors. Its market share remains robust, but semaglutide products are gaining ground due to higher efficacy in weight reduction.
References
- Market Research Future. (2023). Global GLP-1 receptor agonist market forecast.
- IQVIA. (2022). U.S. Pharmaceutical Market Data.
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2022). Trulicity (dulaglutide) approval documentation.
- EvaluatePharma. (2022). 2022 Annual Market Reviews on GLP-1 drugs.
- National Drug Code Directory. (2023). NDC lookup for 42291-0928.
