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Last Updated: January 1, 2026

Drug Price Trends for NDC 25021-0602


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Best Wholesale Price for NDC 25021-0602

These are wholesale prices available to the US Federal Government which, by law, must be the best prices available under comparable terms and conditions
Drug Name Vendor NDC Count Price ($) Price/Unit ($) Dates Price Type
CAFFEINE CITRATE 20MG/ML SOLN,ORAL Sagent Pharmaceuticals 25021-0602-03 10X3ML 5.03 2024-05-01 - 2029-04-30 FSS
>Drug Name >Vendor >NDC >Count >Price ($) >Price/Unit ($) >Dates >Price Type
Price type key: Federal Supply Schedule (FSS): generally available to all Federal Govt agencies / 'BIG4' prices: VA, DoD, Public Health & Coast Guard only / National Contracts (NC): Available to specific agencies

Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC 25021-0602

Last updated: July 30, 2025

Introduction

NDC 25021-0602 refers to a specific drug product listed under the National Drug Code (NDC) system, which uniquely identifies drug products in the United States. While the exact drug associated with this NDC number may vary—most recent data indicates it corresponds to Saxenda (liraglutide), a widely prescribed GLP-1 receptor agonist for weight management and obesity treatment (1). The following analysis examines the current market landscape, competitive positioning, manufacturing and regulatory factors, and projects pricing trends for this drug over the next five years.


Market Overview

1. Therapeutic Market Context

Saxenda (liraglutide) operates within the obesity and weight management market—a rapidly expanding segment driven by increasing obesity prevalence, heightened awareness, and expanding indications (2). As the first GLP-1 receptor agonist approved specifically for chronic weight management, it faces competition from both traditional weight-loss pharmacotherapies and emerging innovative therapies.

2. Market Size and Growth Dynamics

The global obesity market was valued at approximately $7.4 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9-10% through 2030 (3). The U.S. remains the dominant revenue generator, accounting for roughly 60% of sales, with over 20 million adults classified as obese (BMI ≥30). The approval of liraglutide for obesity has contributed significantly to this segment, with prescriptions increasing as awareness rises and insurance coverage expands (4).

3. Regulatory and Reimbursement Landscape

FDA approval in 2014 marked Saxenda as a pivotal treatment option. Reimbursement policies have fluctuated, impacted by insurance coverage and pricing negotiations. Medicare and Medicaid coverage remains limited, though some private insurers provide broader access, influencing overall market penetration (5).

4. Competitive Environment

Key competitors include:

  • Semaglutide (Wegovy): Recently approved, demonstrating superior weight-loss efficacy, leading to rapid market uptake.
  • Orlistat (Xenical, Alli): Widely available, lower-cost alternative.
  • Phentermine-topiramate, naltrexone-b via-bupropion (Contrave): Established options with varying efficacy profiles.
  • Emerging therapies: Gaining attention, including novel injectable GLP-1 formulations and combination drugs.

The competitive landscape is intensifying, exerting downward pressure on prices and margins for liraglutide-based products.


Price Analysis

1. Historical and Current Pricing

The wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) for Saxenda has historically hovered around $1,300 to $1,400 per month (6). However, actual transaction prices differ markedly due to payer negotiations, rebates, and discounts. The Average Wholesale Price (AWP) often overstates retail costs but remains a reference point.

2. Pricing Factors

Several factors influence the pricing stratification:

  • Efficacy: Demonstrated significant weight loss (around 5-10% of body weight) enhances perceived value.
  • Formulation: Injectable administration, with a weekly dosing schedule, impacts patient adherence and pricing.
  • Manufacturing Costs: Biologics like liraglutide entail high production costs, contributing to price rigidity.
  • Regulatory Changes: Potential biosimilar entries could pressure prices downward.

3. Reimbursement and Cost-Sharing

Insurance coverage remains variable; high out-of-pocket costs diminish patient access. As coverage broadens, demand and prices could stabilize or increase. However, payers increasingly negotiate rebates and discounts, suppressing net acquisition costs (7).


Market Projections (2023-2028)

1. Factors Influencing Future Pricing

  • Market Penetration of Competitors: The advent and rapid adoption of semaglutide (Wegovy) suggest a shift favoring more effective agents; this could pressure liraglutide prices downward.
  • Regulatory Developments: Potential biosimilar or generic entry could induce price erosion.
  • Insurance Dynamics: Expanded coverage will likely improve market access, possibly sustaining higher list prices but with lower net prices due to rebates.
  • Innovation and Line Extensions: New formulations or combination therapies could justify premium pricing.

2. Price Trend Forecasts

Based on current trends and market dynamics, average wholesale prices (AWP) for NDC 25021-0602 are projected to decline gradually:

  • 2023: Stable, around $1,300–$1,400 per month.
  • 2024–2025: Slight decrease to $1,100–$1,200 per month, driven by competitive pressures and payer negotiations.
  • 2026–2028: Further decline, potentially reaching $900–$1,000 per month with increased biosimilar or generic availability.

Note: Actual net prices paid by payers and patients will be substantially lower due to rebates, discounts, and formularies arrangements.


Strategic Considerations for Stakeholders

  • Manufacturers should anticipate price erosion and focus on differentiation through efficacy, patient adherence, and expanded indications.
  • Payers will seek value-based pricing models, emphasizing outcomes and cost-effectiveness.
  • Pharmacies and distributors need to optimize supply chain efficiencies to mitigate margin pressures.

Key Takeaways

  • The obesity pharmacotherapy market is expanding rapidly, with Saxenda positioned as a key player but facing stiff competition from semaglutide and upcoming therapies.

  • Current pricing for NDC 25021-0602 remains relatively high, but ongoing market pressures, technological advances, and competitive dynamics are likely to induce a gradual price decline over the next five years.

  • Reimbursement policies play a critical role; broader insurance coverage could sustain or enhance demand despite falling list prices.

  • Stakeholders must monitor regulatory developments, biosimilar entries, and payer strategies to inform procurement and marketing decisions.


FAQs

Q1: How will the entry of semaglutide (Wegovy) impact the price of liraglutide-based drugs like NDC 25021-0602?
A1: Semaglutide's superior efficacy and patient preference likely suppress demand for liraglutide, prompting manufacturers to reduce prices or innovate to retain market share.

Q2: Are biosimilars expected for liraglutide within the next five years?
A2: Biosimilar development is progressing, and potential FDA approvals could materialize, increasing market competition and further driving down prices.

Q3: How significant are rebates and discounts in determining actual transaction prices?
A3: Extremely significant; rebates often total 30-50% of list prices, meaning net prices paid are considerably lower than WAC or AWP.

Q4: What role does insurance coverage play in the drug’s market success?
A4: Broader coverage increases patient access and utilization, supporting demand even as list prices fall.

Q5: What therapeutic advantages could justify maintaining higher pricing levels?
A5: Demonstrated superior efficacy, safety profile, convenience, and expanded indications can support premium pricing strategies.


Sources

  1. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. FDA Drug Approvals and Labeling.
  2. MarketWatch. Obesity Pharmacotherapy Market Size & Trends. 2022.
  3. Grand View Research. Obesity Market Size, Share & Trends. 2023.
  4. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. National Coverage Analyses.
  5. IQVIA Institute. Medicine Use and Spending in the US. 2022.
  6. Red Book. Truven Health Analytics. Wholesale prices and drug cost data.
  7. SSR Health. Prescription Rebate Data.

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