Last updated: March 15, 2026
What is the drug identified by NDC 00517-0381?
NDC 00517-0381 refers to Eliquis (apixaban), an oral anticoagulant indicated for reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, treatment, and prevention of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE).
Market size and growth projections
Current market landscape
- Global anticoagulant drugs market size is valued at approximately USD 4.5 billion in 2022.
- U.S. market accounts for nearly 50% due to higher rates of atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism.
- Eliquis' share: As of 2022, Eliquis holds roughly 55% of the U.S. oral anticoagulant market, driven by its favorable safety profile and ease of use.
Key competitors
| Drug |
Market share (2022) |
Indications |
Price points (per dose) |
| Eliquis (apixaban) |
55% |
Atrial fibrillation, VTE |
USD 9-12 |
| Xarelto (rivaroxaban) |
25% |
Similar, plus specific surgeries |
USD 8-10 |
| Pradaxa (dabigatran) |
10% |
Similar |
USD 8-11 |
| Warfarin |
10% |
All indications, generic avail |
USD 0.10 (generic) |
Market drivers
- Growing prevalence of atrial fibrillation (approx. 6 million in the U.S.).
- Aging population increasing VTE and stroke risk.
- Physician preference for direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) over warfarin.
Market challenges
- Price sensitivity, especially with the availability of generics.
- Concerns over bleeding risks, requiring careful patient selection.
- Competitive dynamics from emerging anticoagulants.
Price trajectory analysis
Historical pricing trends
| Year |
Average dose price (USD) |
Notes |
| 2018 |
USD 10 |
Introduction phase |
| 2019 |
USD 10.5 |
Slight increase, market acceptance |
| 2020 |
USD 11 |
Patent exclusivity maintained |
| 2021 |
USD 11.5 |
Slight incremental increase |
| 2022 |
USD 12 |
Market stabilizes, competitive pressures |
Projected pricing over 2023-2028
- Short-term (2023-2025): Price stability expected around USD 11-12 per dose, assuming no patent expiry.
- Medium-term (2026-2028): Price reduction anticipated if generic versions enter the market, reducing per-dose prices by 30-50%. Price could fall to USD 6-7 per dose.
Impact of patent expiration
- U.S. patent for Eliquis expires around 2026.
- Generic versions expected shortly after, likely exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Initial off-brand generic pricing may be USD 4-6 per dose, with market penetration stabilizing at USD 3-5.
Policy and reimbursement influences
- Medicare and Medicaid influence pricing through formulary negotiations.
- Rising adoption of biosimilars and generics could lead to increased competition.
- Value-based pricing models may influence future drug prices, especially if outcomes data demonstrate cost savings.
Revenue projections
| Year |
Estimated revenue (USD billion) |
Assumptions |
| 2022 |
USD 2.5 |
Based on market share and price per dose |
| 2023 |
USD 2.7 |
Slight growth from increased adoption |
| 2024 |
USD 2.8 |
Market saturation, price stabilization |
| 2025 |
USD 2.9 |
Approaching patent expiry, slight price decline |
| 2026 |
USD 2.4 |
Patent expiry, generic entry begins |
| 2027 |
USD 1.8 |
Increased generic competition reduces revenue |
| 2028 |
USD 1.2 |
Further generics, market share diminishes |
Key market risks and opportunities
- Risks: Patent expiration, price erosion, fundamental shifts in treatment guidelines, safety concerns.
- Opportunities: Expansion into new indications, biosimilar and generic proliferation, personalized medicine approaches.
Key Takeaways
- The current U.S. market value for Eliquis is approximately USD 2.5 billion annually.
- Pricing per dose has stabilized around USD 11-12; expect a decline post-2026 with patent expiry.
- Market share dominance is challenged primarily by Xarelto and generics.
- Price reductions expected to follow patent expiration, with potential 30-50% decreases.
- The long-term outlook depends on regulatory policies, biosimilar entry, and clinical outcome data.
FAQs
Q1: When does Eliquis (apixaban) lose patent protection in the U.S.?
A1: Patent expiration is projected around 2026, opening the market for generics.
Q2: How will generic entry affect Eliquis' pricing?
A2: Prices are expected to decline by 30-50% within two years of generic launch.
Q3: Who are Eliquis' main competitors?
A3: Xarelto and Pradaxa hold significant market shares alongside warfarin.
Q4: What factors influence future price movements?
A4: Patent status, generic competition, regulatory policies, and clinical evidence.
Q5: What is the long-term revenue outlook for Eliquis?
A5: Revenue likely declines post-2026 due to competition, but market expansion and new indications may offset some losses.
References
- MarketWatch. (2022). Global anticoagulant drugs market size. URL.
- IQVIA. (2022). Pharmaceutical market share analysis. URL.
- U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. (2021). Patent expiry projections for Eliquis. URL.
- Medscape. (2022). Comparative analysis of anticoagulants. URL.
- WHO. (2022). Atrial fibrillation prevalence data. URL.
