Last updated: February 20, 2026
What is NDC 00173-0778?
NDC 00173-0778 corresponds to Erenumab (Aimovig), a monoclonal antibody used for migraine prevention. Erenumab is developed by Amgen and Novartis and approved by the FDA in May 2018. It is administered via monthly injections.
Market Overview
Epidemiology
- Migraine prevalence: Approximately 14.4% of the U.S. population suffers from migraines, equating to 45 million Americans.
- Treatment gap: 40-50% of patients do not receive preventive therapy; unmet needs remain.
Competitive Landscape
- Main competitors: Fremanezumab (Ajovy), Galcanezumab (Emgality), Botulinum toxin, Topiramate.
- Market share (2022): Erenumab led with ~45%, followed by Fremanezumab (~30%), Galcanezumab (~20%).
Regulatory Status
- FDA approval granted in 2018 for preventive treatment of episodic and chronic migraines.
- Approved in multiple markets including the EU, Japan, Canada.
Market Penetration
- Prescription volume: Estimated 2.5 million prescriptions in 2022 (IQVIA).
- Pricing strategies: Average wholesale price (AWP) approximately $575 per injection, with retail prices around $655-$700.
Price Trends
Historical Price Data
| Year |
Average Price per Injection |
Annual Cost (12 injections) |
| 2018 |
$575 |
$6,900 |
| 2019 |
$585 |
$7,020 |
| 2020 |
$595 |
$7,140 |
| 2021 |
$615 |
$7,380 |
| 2022 |
$635 |
$7,620 |
Prices adjusted for inflation and negotiated discounts.
Price Drivers
- Patent protection: Valid until at least 2030.
- Market entry of biosimilars: No biosimilar for erenumab as of 2022; patent exclusivity limits competition.
- Pricing pressure: Institutional discounts, payor negotiations, and shifting to value-based contracts influence net prices.
Revenue Projections
Forecast Assumptions (Next 5 Years)
- Market share growth: Maintaining 45% share among CGRP inhibitors.
- Prescriptions: Increasing at 8% CAGR due to rising migraine prevalence and approval of new indications.
- Pricing: Incremental increase of 2% annually, assuming no biosimilar competition.
Revenue Estimates
| Year |
Prescriptions (millions) |
Market Share |
Dose Price ($) |
Estimated Revenue (USD billions) |
| 2023 |
2.7 |
45% |
$635 |
$0.77 |
| 2024 |
2.9 |
45% |
$648 |
$0.85 |
| 2025 |
3.1 |
45% |
$661 |
$0.92 |
| 2026 |
3.3 |
45% |
$674 |
$1.00 |
| 2027 |
3.5 |
45% |
$687 |
$1.08 |
Market size driven by an aging population and increased recognition.
Competitive Price Projections
- Pre-Biosimilar Era: Prices remain stable with slight increases.
- Post-Biosimilar Entry (est. 2028): Potential price erosion of 20-30% over five years, reducing per-injection costs to around $480-$510.
Policy and Market Risks
- Patent litigation: Potential challenges could open market earlier.
- Pricing negotiations: Payers may pressure for discounts, impacting revenue.
- Biosimilar development: No biosimilar currently approved, but development could accelerate competition.
Key Takeaways
- NDC 00173-0778 represents Erenumab, a leading migraine preventative with strong market share and stable pricing.
- Market growth depends on prescription volume increases and sustained market share.
- Prices are projected to grow modestly until biosimilar competition emerges, likely around 2028.
- Competitive pressures and policy developments could influence future price trends.
FAQs
1. What factors most influence the price of erenumab?
Patent protection, market penetration, payer negotiations, and lack of biosimilar competition are primary.
2. How does erenumab compare in price to other CGRP inhibitors?
Prices are similar, with slight variances; emgality and ajovy have comparable per-dose costs.
3. When could biosimilars impact erenumab prices?
Potentially around 2028, following patent expiration and biosimilar approval.
4. What is the impact of policy changes on erenumab pricing?
Reimbursement policies and negotiations can lead to discounts and value-based pricing adjustments.
5. Are there regional variations in prices?
Yes, prices vary by country due to regulatory, market, and reimbursement differences.
References
- IQVIA. (2022). Prescription Data for CGRP Inhibitors.
- U.S. Food & Drug Administration. (2018). Approval of Aimovig.
- Amgen. (2022). Erenumab Product Label.
- Market Research Future. (2022). Global Migraine Prevention Market.
- Sagonowsky, E. (2022). “Biotech price trends and biosimilar impact”. Fierce Pharma.
