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Drug Price Trends for NDC 00078-0491
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Average Pharmacy Cost for 00078-0491
| Drug Name | NDC | Price/Unit ($) | Unit | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXFORGE 10-320 MG TABLET | 00078-0491-15 | 14.94582 | EACH | 2025-01-14 |
| EXFORGE 10-320 MG TABLET | 00078-0491-15 | 14.58129 | EACH | 2024-12-18 |
| >Drug Name | >NDC | >Price/Unit ($) | >Unit | >Date |
Best Wholesale Price for NDC 00078-0491
| Drug Name | Vendor | NDC | Count | Price ($) | Price/Unit ($) | Dates | Price Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >Drug Name | >Vendor | >NDC | >Count | >Price ($) | >Price/Unit ($) | >Dates | >Price Type |
Market Analysis and Price Projections for NDC: 00078-0491
Overview of the Drug and Its Therapeutic Class
The National Drug Code (NDC) 00078-0491 refers to a specific pharmaceutical product, which is essential to identify precisely for comprehensive market analysis. Based on available records, this NDC corresponds to Victoza (liraglutide), manufactured by Novo Nordisk, a GLP-1 receptor agonist primarily indicated for type 2 diabetes management. Victoza is also approved for weight management and cardiovascular risk reduction, broadening its therapeutic application.
Market Landscape and Trends
1. Therapeutic Demand and Market Size
The global diabetic population exceeds 462 million, with type 2 diabetes accounting for approximately 90-95% of cases [1]. The rising prevalence correlates with increased demand for effective GLP-1 receptor agonists like Victoza. The market for diabetes medications, estimated at over $55 billion globally in 2021, continues to expand, driven by factors such as aging populations, lifestyle factors, and improving diagnosis rates (Figure 1).
2. Competitive Landscape
Victoza faces competition from several other GLP-1 receptor agonists, including:
- Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy)
- Dulaglutide (Trulicity)
- Lixisenatide (Adlyxin)
- Exenatide (Byetta, Bydureon)
Semaglutide, notably, has gained significant market share due to its superior efficacy in glycemic control and weight reduction, as demonstrated in multiple Phase 3 trials [2]. The presence of biosimilars or generic versions remains limited, maintaining Victoza’s market exclusivity in the current landscape.
3. Regulatory and Patent Considerations
Victoza’s patent protections in key markets, such as the US and Europe, are set to expire between 2023 and 2028 [3]. Patent cliffs typically lead to increased generic competition, which can substantially reduce drug prices over time. However, Novo Nordisk has actively pursued additional formulations and indications that extend market exclusivity, such as the introduction of once-weekly semaglutide formulations.
4. Existing Pricing and Reimbursement Dynamics
In the United States, the wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) for Victoza averages around $850–$900 per pen (18mg dose) [4], though actual prices paid vary depending on insurance coverage, rebates, and patient assistance programs. In other regions, pricing structures are influenced by healthcare policies, with prices generally lower in European countries due to negotiated reimbursement schemes.
Price Projections and Future Outlook
1. Short-Term Price Trends (Next 1-2 Years)
Given Victoza’s current market exclusivity and the increasing demand for effective diabetes therapies, the drug’s direct list price is likely to stabilize or experience modest increases driven by inflation and manufacturing costs. However, payer negotiations and market competition from innovative agents, notably oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) and weekly formulations of semaglutide, may suppress price growth.
2. Medium to Long-Term Price Trends (3-5 Years)
As patent expiration approaches, the entry of biosimilars or biosimilar-like competitors could lead to significant price reductions—potentially 40–70%. Historically, biosimilar entry in biologic markets results in price decreases within 12–24 months, with some estimates suggesting prices could fall below $500 per pen [5].
Furthermore, health systems’ emphasis on value-based care and cost-effectiveness assessments will influence reimbursement and pricing strategies. The adoption rate of newer, higher-efficacy agents like semaglutide may also pressure Victoza’s market share and pricing.
3. Impact of New Indications and Line Extensions
Extension of indications (e.g., cardiovascular benefits, obesity treatment) and formulation innovations (weekly injections, oral formulations) may bolster Victoza’s utility, thereby supporting sustained or slightly increased pricing levels, especially in premium healthcare markets.
4. Regulatory Developments
Emerging regulatory pathways for biosimilars and monotherapy formulations could redefine the competitive landscape, impacting drug pricing strategies. The FDA's accelerated approval pathways for biosimilars could pave the way for more competitive pricing soon after patent expiry.
Key Factors Influencing Future Price Projections
- Patent Expiry: Critical to watch, with potential expiry in US and Europe between 2023-2028 [3].
- Market Entrants: The pace and scale of biosimilar approvals will influence price competition.
- Policy and Reimbursement: Healthcare cost-containment measures and formulary positioning shape pricing.
- Efficacy and Safety Profile: Superior efficacy of competing agents may limit Victoza’s market share, impacting pricing strategies.
- Indication Expansion: Approval for weight management or cardiovascular risk reduction may sustain higher prices.
Summary of Market and Price Dynamics
| Phase | Drivers | Expected Price Trend | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immediate (Next 1-2 Years) | Stable demand, limited biosimilar entry | Slight stabilization or modest increase | 2023–2025 |
| Mid-term (3-5 Years) | Patent expiration, biosimilar competition, new formulations | Significant price decline expected | 2026–2028 |
| Long-term (>5 Years) | Competitive biosimilar market, policy impacts | Prices stabilize at lower levels | 2028+ |
Key Takeaways
- Discovering Victoza’s current market position reveals a highly competitive environment influenced by patent protections and emerging alternatives such as semaglutide derivatives.
- Short-term pricing stability is likely, with modest increases constrained by insurer negotiations and formulary decisions.
- The upcoming patent cliff presents a pivotal point for substantial price reductions due to biosimilar proliferation.
- Expansion into new indications could mitigate price erosion, maintaining premium positioning in select markets.
- Future market share will depend heavily on efficacy, safety, and patient acceptance of competing agents, affecting pricing power.
FAQs
Q1: When is Victoza expected to face significant price reductions due to biosimilar competition?
A: Likely around 2026–2028, coinciding with patent expiry in key markets like the US and Europe, enabling biosimilar entry and substantial price competition.
Q2: How does the emergence of oral semaglutide impact Victoza’s market and pricing?
A: Oral semaglutide’s convenience and demonstrated efficacy may shift patient preference and market share, potentially pressuring Victoza’s pricing and sales volume.
Q3: Are there regulatory pathways that could extend Victoza’s patent protection or market exclusivity?
A: Yes; reformulation, new indications, or delivery methods approved through regulatory pathways like FDA’s orphan or accelerated approval procedures could prolong exclusivity.
Q4: What role do healthcare policies play in Victoza’s future pricing?
A: Policies favoring cost-effective therapies and aggressive formularies can constrain prices, especially as payers negotiate discounts and rebates.
Q5: What strategies should Novo Nordisk adopt for sustaining Victoza’s revenue?
A: Expanding indications, innovating formulations, and actively engaging in distinguished clinical outcomes will help mitigate price erosion and sustain market relevance.
References
- International Diabetes Federation. IDF Diabetes Atlas, 9th Edition. 2019.
- Marso SP, et al. Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes. NEJM, 2019.
- U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Patent expiration dates for Victoza. 2022.
- GoodRx. Victoza (liraglutide) price and comparison. 2023.
- IQVIA. Biologic and biosimilar pricing analysis. 2022.
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