Last updated: July 30, 2025
Introduction
The drug identified by National Drug Code (NDC) 00065-8150 is an essential component within the pharmaceutical landscape, and understanding its market dynamics is crucial for stakeholders including manufacturers, healthcare providers, insurers, and investors. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the current market environment, demand forecasts, competitive landscape, pricing trends, and future price projections for NDC 00065-8150.
Drug Overview and Therapeutic Context
NDC 00065-8150 corresponds to Liraglutide (Victoza), a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist indicated primarily for type 2 diabetes management and weight management. Approved by the FDA in 2010, Liraglutide has gained prominence owing to its efficacy in glycemic control and cardiovascular risk reduction. Its therapeutic application is expanding, driven by clinical evidence and evolving guidelines recommending GLP-1 receptor agonists early in diabetes management.
Current Market Landscape
Market Size and Growth Trends
The global diabetes drug market was valued at approximately $45 billion in 2022, with expectations of a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7% over the next five years (source: IQVIA). Liraglutide, as a leading GLP-1 agonist, accounts for a significant portion of this segment, estimated at $4.5 billion in 2022, with its market share increasing due to rising diabetes prevalence and expanding indications.
In the United States alone, the number of diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients exceeds 37 million, with an increasing proportion receiving GLP-1 receptor agonists as part of their treatment regimen (source: CDC). This demographic trend underpins steady demand for drugs like NDC 00065-8150.
Competitive Landscape
Key competitors include other branded GLP-1 receptor agonists such as Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) by Novo Nordisk, Dulaglutide (Trulicity) by Eli Lilly, and Exenatide (Byetta, Bydureon). Market share dynamics are influenced by factors including efficacy, safety profile, dosing convenience, and pricing.
While Victoza (NDC 00065-8150) retains a substantial market share, newer formulations like semaglutide are capturing significant portions, especially in weight management segments, due to superior efficacy. Nonetheless, Victoza's established clinical profile and brand recognition support its continued market relevance.
Pricing Trends and Economic Factors
Historical Pricing Analysis
Historically, the wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) of Victoza has ranged between $8,000 to $9,500 annually per patient, reflecting high-brand valuation in the chronic therapy space. The introduction of biosimilars and patent expirations (not yet applicable for Victoza’s patent exclusivity) could influence future pricing.
Reimbursement and Price Discounts
Reimbursement rates vary across insurers and Medicaid, with net prices typically lower than WAC. Manufacturers offer rebates and discounts, which reduce effective prices for payers. The proliferation of prior authorization and value-based pricing models exerts downward pressure on net prices.
Market Dynamics Impacting Pricing
- Adoption of Multiple-Dose Regimens: The convenience of once-daily injections balances against alternatives with less frequent dosing, influencing prescribing patterns and price points.
- Generic and Biosimilar Competition: Currently limited for Victoza, but biologic patent expirations may introduce biosimilar competition within the next 5–7 years.
- Supply Chain Factors: Manufacturing costs, supply chain disruptions, and raw material prices impact pricing strategies.
Future Price Projections
Assumptions and Methodology
Price projections are based on:
- Current market growth trends.
- Expected patent expirations.
- Entry of biosimilars and generics.
- Industry pricing strategies.
- Regulatory influences.
Projection Outlook (2023–2028)
- Short-Term (1–2 years): Expect a marginal decline in net prices (~3–5%) driven by payor discounting and competitive pressure, with gross prices remaining relatively stable due to high brand value.
- Mid-Term (3–5 years): Anticipated patent expirations and biosimilar entries could exert substantial downward pressure, leading to a potential 15–25% reduction in net prices, contingent on biosimilar market penetration.
- Long-Term (5+ years): Market share shifts towards newer GLP-1 formulations and biosimilars could reduce Victoza’s price by up to 40–50%, aligning with trends observed in other biologic classes.
Influencing Factors
- Regulatory policies such as price transparency initiatives may further constrain prices.
- Market uptake of competing therapies might accelerate price erosion.
- Potential label expansions for Victoza or similar drugs could sustain demand and stabilize prices temporarily.
Implications for Stakeholders
- Manufacturers should strategize around patent timelines and biosimilar development.
- Payers and providers should monitor evolving reimbursement landscapes to optimize formulary positioning.
- Investors must consider the lifecycle phase of NDC 00065-8150, accounting for potential biosimilar competition and market dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- NDC 00065-8150 (Victoza) operates within a rapidly expanding GLP-1 receptor agonist market, with robust demand driven by diabetes prevalence and cardiovascular benefits.
- Current pricing is high, but competitive pressures and upcoming biosimilar entries are poised to reduce net prices over the next 3–5 years.
- Market share shifts towards newer agents like semaglutide pose significant challenges to Victoza’s future profitability.
- Stakeholders must stay agile, leveraging clinical data and reimbursement strategies to sustain value.
- Long-term price declines are probable, emphasizing the importance of innovation, lifecycle management, and strategic planning.
FAQs
Q1: When is the patent for NDC 00065-8150 (Victoza) expected to expire?
A1: The primary patent for Victoza is set to expire around 2024–2025, opening the pathway for biosimilar entry and increased price competition [1].
Q2: What are the main factors influencing the price of Victoza in the next five years?
A2: Patent expirations, biosimilar development, shifting treatment guidelines favoring newer GLP-1 formulations, payer reimbursement strategies, and market competition will significantly influence prices.
Q3: How does the emergence of biosimilars impact Victoza's market share?
A3: Biosimilars are expected to introduce price competition, potentially reducing Victoza’s market share by offering cost-effective alternatives, especially in institutional and formulary settings.
Q4: Are there any new indications extending Victoza’s market potential?
A4: Yes, Victoza has received FDA approval for certain weight management applications, which could broaden its use and stabilize demand amid price pressures [2].
Q5: What strategies can manufacturers employ to maintain profitability?
A5: Strategies include lifecycle management through label expansions, value-based pricing agreements, investing in biosimilar development, and enhancing clinical differentiation.
References
- IQVIA. Global Market Trends in Diabetes Care. 2022.
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Victoza (Liraglutide) Label. 2019.
