Last updated: February 24, 2026
What is NDC 70954-0852?
NDC 70954-0852 refers to a specific pharmaceutical product registered in the National Drug Code (NDC) system. Based on available data, this NDC corresponds to Ubrogepant, which is marketed under the brand name Ubrelvy. Ubrogepant is a calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor antagonist approved by the FDA for acute treatment of migraine in adults.
Market Size and Growth
Historical and Projected Market Dynamics
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Market Size (2022): The U.S. migraine treatment market was valued at approximately USD 3.2 billion. Ubrogepant holds an estimated 10%-15% segment of this market, directly translating to USD 320-$480 million.
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Growth Rate: The market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8-10% through 2027, driven by increasing migraine prevalence and the adoption of CGRP antagonists.
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Key Drivers:
- Rising migraine prevalence (approx. 15% global, higher in the U.S.).
- Preference for non-opioid, fast-acting migraine relief options.
- Expanding insurance coverage for CGRP receptor antagonists.
Competitive Landscape
| Product |
Market Share |
Launch Year |
Price (per dose) |
Notes |
| Ubrelvy (Ubrogepant) |
10-15% |
2019 |
USD 28-30 |
First oral CGRP antagonist in US |
| Nurtec ODT (Rimegepant) |
10% |
2020 |
USD 37-40 |
Orally disintegrating tablet |
| Aimovig (Erenumab) |
20% |
2018 |
USD 595/month |
Monoclonal antibody |
| Emgality (Galcanezumab) |
15% |
2018 |
USD 575/month |
Monoclonal antibody |
Market penetration of oral CGRP antagonists like Ubrelvy is increasing relative to injectable options.
Price Projections and Cost Trends
Current Pricing
- Per Dose: USD 28-30
- Annual Cost: USD 336-360 (based on roughly 12 doses/month)
- Comparison: Monoclonal antibodies cost approximately USD 7,000-$8,000 annually.
Factors Influencing Price Trends
- Patent Status: The patent for Ubrogepant is expected to expire in 2029, which could trigger biosimilar or generic entry, leading to price reductions.
- Market Competition: Increasing competition from new oral CGRP antagonists may pressure prices downward.
- Pricing Policies: Insurance coverage expansions and pricing negotiations can influence actual out-of-pocket costs.
Future Price Projections (2023–2027)
| Year |
Projected Price Range (per dose) |
Influencing Factors |
| 2023 |
USD 28-30 |
Stable, limited generic competition |
| 2024 |
USD 26-28 |
Slight downward pressure, early biosimilar prospects |
| 2025 |
USD 24-26 |
Entry of biosimilars, competitive pressure |
| 2026 |
USD 22-24 |
Increased generic market share |
| 2027 |
USD 20-22 |
Potential market normalization |
Cost-Effectiveness and Value Considerations
- Cost-effectiveness: Oral CGRP antagonists like Ubrogepant are positioned as cost-effective compared to injectable monoclonal antibodies, especially for episodic migraine.
- Value-based pricing: Expansion to broader patient populations may influence payer willingness to reimburse at current prices.
Regulatory and Patent Considerations
- Patent Expiry: Patent is expected to expire in 2029, opening entry for generics.
- Biosimilar Opportunities: No biosimilars are applicable, as the product is a small-molecule drug.
Key Market Challenges and Opportunities
- Challenges: Price sensitivity post-patent expiry, competition from newer drugs, insurance formulary restrictions.
- Opportunities: Growing migraine prevalence, shift toward outpatient oral therapies, potential off-label indications.
Key Takeaways
- The current market value for NDC 70954-0852 (Ubrogepant) is approximately USD 320-480 million in the U.S.
- The market is expanding at 8-10% CAGR driven by increasing migraine cases and preference for oral treatments.
- Current per-dose prices hover around USD 28-30, with future declines expected as patent protections end and generics enter.
- Total annual costs are approximately USD 336-360, with potential reductions to USD 220-250 post-2029.
- Market growth is constrained by patent expirations but boosted by increasing outpatient and oral medication preferences.
FAQs
1. When will generics for Ubrogepant enter the market?
Patents are expected to expire in 2029, after which generic manufacturers could introduce biosimilar versions.
2. How does Ubrogepant compare to other treatments in terms of cost?
It is significantly cheaper than monoclonal antibody CGRP inhibitors, with current annual costs around USD 336-360 compared to USD 7,000-$8,000 for injectable options.
3. What factors could accelerate price reductions?
Patent expiration, increased competition, and biosimilar entry are key drivers for lowering prices.
4. What is the potential market expansion scope?
Growing migraine prevalence and approval for additional indications could expand the accessible patient population.
5. Are there any regulatory barriers affecting the market?
No significant regulatory barriers are anticipated; however, reimbursement policies could impact market penetration.
References
- MarketWatch. (2023). Migraine treatment market analysis.
- FDA. (2019). Approval of Ubrelvy.
- IQVIA. (2022). U.S. Specialty Drug Trend Report.
- Deloitte. (2022). Biosimilars and generic markets.
- IMS Health. (2022). Pharmaceutical pricing trends.
