Understanding the NDC Code
The National Drug Code (NDC) is a unique, three-segment number that identifies a drug product. For the NDC code 13668-0484, here’s a breakdown of what each segment means:
- Labeler Code: The first segment, '13668', is assigned by the FDA and identifies the labeler, which in this case is Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited[4].
- Product Code: The second segment, '0484', identifies a specific strength, dosage form, and formulation for the labeler.
- Package Code: The third segment identifies the package size and type.
Market Context of the US Pharmaceutical Industry
The US pharmaceutical market is a significant sector, projected to grow from $846.72 billion in 2022 to $1.28 trillion by 2030, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.36%[3].
Price Trends in Prescription Drugs
Prescription drug prices have been a subject of concern due to their impact on affordability and the healthcare system. Here are some key trends:
- Price Increases: Most prescription drug price increases occur in January and July each year. In 2022, the average price increase in January was nearly $150 per drug (10.0% increase), and in July, it was $250 (7.8% increase)[2].
- Significant Price Changes: Using criteria such as price changes greater than $20 per package with at least a 10% change or any change greater than $500 per package, it was found that 15-18% of price increases in January and July 2022 were significant[2].
Specific Drug Price Analysis
To analyze the price projections for the drug with NDC 13668-0484, we need to consider several factors:
Historical Price Data
While specific historical price data for NDC 13668-0484 is not provided, we can infer from broader trends. For instance, the median price increase for generic drugs in 2022 was 19.9%, and for brand name drugs, it was 13.4%[5].
Industry Trends
Given the overall trend of price increases, especially in January and July, it is likely that the drug in question may experience price adjustments during these periods.
Regulatory Environment
The quality of information submitted by manufacturers regarding price increases can be variable, which may affect the accuracy of price projections. However, regulatory efforts to enhance transparency, such as those in Oregon, aim to provide more detailed information on price changes[5].
Price Projections
Short-Term Projections
- January and July Adjustments: Based on historical data, it is plausible that the drug with NDC 13668-0484 could see price increases in January and July, potentially in the range of 10% to 20% depending on the specific market conditions and the manufacturer's strategy.
- Average Price Increase: If the drug follows the average trend, a price increase of around $150 to $250 could be expected in these periods, though this would depend on the current pricing and market dynamics.
Long-Term Projections
- Market Growth: As the US pharmaceutical market is expected to grow significantly, driven by factors such as increased R&D investments and the adoption of AI in drug discovery, the demand for drugs is likely to increase. This could lead to higher prices over the long term.
- Competition and Generic Drugs: The presence of generic drugs and biosimilars can influence pricing. If a generic version of the drug becomes available, it could lead to a decrease in prices for the branded version.
Key Takeaways
- Price Increases: Expect potential price increases in January and July, aligning with industry trends.
- Market Growth: The overall growth of the US pharmaceutical market suggests a stable or increasing demand for drugs, which could support higher prices.
- Regulatory Transparency: Efforts to enhance transparency in price changes can provide better data for future projections.
- Generic and Biosimilar Impact: The introduction of generic or biosimilar versions could impact the pricing strategy for the branded drug.
FAQs
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What is the significance of the NDC code in the pharmaceutical industry?
- The NDC code is a unique identifier that helps in tracking and managing drug products, ensuring that each product is distinct and traceable.
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Why do most prescription drug price increases occur in January and July?
- These months historically account for the majority of price increases due to various market and regulatory factors.
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How does the adoption of AI in drug discovery impact the pharmaceutical market?
- AI accelerates the process of discovering new medications, optimizing novel structures, and identifying biological targets, thereby driving market growth.
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What are the main drivers of the US pharmaceutical market growth?
- The growth is driven by rising workplace-associated disorders, increased pharmaceutical production capacity, greater approvals of generic drugs, and escalating R&D investments.
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How do generic drugs affect the pricing of branded drugs?
- The availability of generic drugs can lead to a decrease in prices for the branded versions due to increased competition.
Last updated: 2025-01-04
