Last updated: March 13, 2026
What Is the Drug Associated with NDC 64380-0171?
NDC 64380-0171 identifies Atogepant, marketed as Qulipta. It is an oral calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor antagonist approved by the FDA in October 2021 for the preventive treatment of episodic migraines in adults.
Market Landscape
Market Size and Growth Drivers
The migraine treatment market was valued at approximately $4.5 billion in 2022. It is projected to reach $6 billion by 2027, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%. This growth is driven by:
- Increasing prevalence of migraine (affects approximately 15% of the global population)[1].
- Patent exclusivity for novel oral CGRP antagonists like atogepant.
- Growing adoption of preventive therapies over traditional acute treatments.
- Expanding approval for episodic migraine prevention.
Competitive Environment
Niche space dominated by CGRP antagonists, including:
- Erenumab (Aimovig): Monoclonal antibody, annual cost approx. $6,000.
- Fremanezumab (Ajovy): Injectable, similar cost profile.
- Galcanezumab (Emgality)
- Rimegepant (Nurtec ODT): Acute and preventive label, oral form.
- Ubrogepant (Ubrelvy): Acute, oral, no preventive indication.
Atogepant's differentiator: Oral administration for prevention, targeting a patient segment preferring pills over injections.
Market Entry and Penetration
Since FDA approval in 2021, atogepant has captured a modest market share, estimated at 4% of the CGRP segment in 2022. Brands like Aimovig hold dominant segments with over 30%.
Prescriber and Patient Adoption
Prescriptions for migraine preventives increased 12% in the year following atogepant's launch[2]. Adoption is driven by safety profile, oral administration, and growing awareness.
Price Projections
Current Pricing Dynamics
- Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC): Approximately $705 per month per patient (based on current wholesale data).
- Average Selling Price (ASP): Estimated at $650 per month.
- Reimbursement landscape: Insurance coverage with copay assistance programs reduces patient out-of-pocket costs to roughly $10-$50 per month.
Future Price Trends
- Initial years (2023-2025): Prices likely stable; minor adjustments based on inflation, payer negotiations.
- 2026-2030: Potential reductions in WAC due to increased competition and generic approval of similar molecules, estimated drop of 10-15% over five years.
- Segment pricing factors: Entry of biosimilars or generics may further pressure prices.
Market Penetration Impact on Price
- Higher market penetration correlates with pricing pressure—expected to factor into the pricing trajectory by 2027.
- Launch of next-generation CGRP agents or combination therapies could also influence pricing.
Revenue Projections
Projecting across a five-year horizon:
| Year |
Estimated Patients on Atogepant |
Revenue ($ millions) |
Comments |
| 2023 |
150,000 |
1,200 |
Initial market penetration stabilizes; stable pricing. |
| 2024 |
250,000 |
2,000 |
Increased prescriber adoption; slight price reductions. |
| 2025 |
350,000 |
2,700 |
Market expansion continues; potential pricing pressure. |
| 2026 |
400,000 |
2,800 |
Price drops may begin; market saturation effects. |
| 2027 |
450,000 |
2,600 |
Market stabilizes; generic competition emerges. |
Key Market Risks
- Pricing pressures from generics or biosimilars.
- Regulatory changes affecting rebate policies.
- Market acceptance slowed by competition or safety concerns.
- Patient preference shifts toward injectables or combination therapies.
Key Takeaways
- NDC 64380-0171 refers to atogepant, a significant entrant in migraine preventive oral therapies.
- The drug's market share remains modest but is growing, driven by increasing migraine prevalence and patient preference for oral drugs.
- Current WAC (~$705/month) is stable but may decline 10-15% over the next five years due to competitive pressures.
- Market revenue is projected to increase through 2025 before stabilizing or slightly declining by 2027 owing to generic competition.
- Pricing strategies will be shaped by payer negotiations, competitive landscape evolution, and regulatory developments.
FAQs
1. What is the primary competitive advantage of atogepant?
Its oral administration for migraine prevention, offering an alternative to injectable biologics.
2. How does the price of atogepant compare to other CGRP therapies?
It is roughly 20-25% lower than injectable biologics like Aimovig, but close to oral options like rimegepant.
3. What factors could accelerate price reductions?
Introduction of generics/biosimilars, increased market penetration, and payer negotiated discounts.
4. What is the expected market share of atogepant by 2025?
Approximately 10-15% of the migraine preventative segment.
5. How does patent protection status influence pricing?
Patent exclusivity supports higher pricing; expiration typically leads to price declines due to generics.
References
[1] Lipton, R. B., et al. (2022). Migraine prevalence and burden. Neurology.
[2] IMS Health (2022). Prescription trends for migraine therapies.
